Should the Philadelphia Eagles give WR Mohamed Sanu a call?

how much is mohamed sanu worth

how much is mohamed sanu worth - win

3 Round Mock Draft 1.0

This is just mock draft 1 and we're a long way from the actual draft so I'm open to criticism, position suggestions, player evaluation disagreements, etc. Let me know what you think (third round explanations deleted due to word count restraints).
  1. Jacksonville Jaguars - QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson. Lawrence is in the discussion for best QB prospect of all time and will be the pick.
  2. New York Jets - QB Justin Fields, Ohio State. I'm working under the assumption that Deshaun Watson will not be traded. After a deep dive into analytics and spending way too much time breaking down game tape, I personally would go with Fields over Wilson. But, they have virtually the same grade and I would not be shocked by either player being picked.
  3. Denver Broncos (from Miami via Houston) - QB Zach Wilson, BYU. With Zach Wilson still on the board at pick 3, John Elway, George Paton and the Broncos go all in to get their franchise QB. If your division rival is lining up Patrick Mahomes under center, you need to do better than Drew Lock to compete. The Broncos have a franchise left tackle to anchor their line, and a very talented young group of weapons. They've build a roster friendly to a franchise QB, so the timing is right to make this move for Denver. As the Rams have proven, you don't need first round picks to build a roster that competes for championships.
  4. Atlanta Falcons - OT Penei Sewell, Oregon. I 'm not sure this move will be popular with Falcons fans, but here goes. With the Broncos trading up and taking the last of the top QBs in this class off the board, the Falcons suddenly have a difficult decision to make. Do you take a raw, inexperienced QB like Trey Lance, or do you take best player available? Here I have the Falcons going best player available because Matt Ryan is still a top QB, and due to his contract situation he's going to be on the roster for at least two more years. That gives them a bigger window to add more talent to the roster before selecting Ryan's replacement. And it would probably be prudent for the Falcons to build a roster then get a QB, rather than get a QB and build the roster after, when the QB prospect in question is a project. Unfortunately, there are no pass rushing prospects who really fit here, although Dean Pees' defense should help to mask that deficiency some and there are good value prospects who should be available on day 2. A.J. Terrell had a promising rookie season, but beyond him they need both depth and talent at CB so one of the top CB prospects is an option here. However, for Arthur Smith's new offense getting a prospect like Sewell is too good of an option. With his contract being easy to move on from, I'm projecting the Falcons cut James Carpenter and select Sewell to move to guard to start his career. This gives them a lot of talent on the offensive line and a lot of flexibility in the future. Should Matthews begin to decline, they can move on and slide Sewell out to left. If McGary doesn't get better in his third year, Sewell could be a long term replacement there. And the main factor that led me to making this pick is that Arthur Smith didn't take the Atlanta job to rebuild. He's got a really good QB in Matt Ryan and Sewell at guard gives the Falcons the best chance at closing out the Ryan era on a high note.
  5. Cincinnati Bengals - OT Rashawn Slater, Northwestern. Thanks to the Broncos trading up for Wilson, the Bengals are guaranteed at least one of the top offensive line prospects in the class being on the board, and although Sewell is gone at 4 Slater is still an excellent prize at 5. As tempting as it may be to reunite Burrow and Chase, the Bengals have to protect their franchise QB. Ideally, Jonah Williams is healthy, but after two years he's had a tough time staying on the field so a guy like Slater who can play any position on the line is perfect here.
  6. Philadelphia Eagles - WR Devonta Smith, Alabama. While I do think it would be smart for the Eagles to draft a CB here, I think Nick Sirianni's odds of surviving in Philly will go way down if he can't fix Wentz. I also think Roseman knows his job is tied to the success of Wentz, given the contract he gave to Wentz. Because of that I've decided to go with a WR here. If I'm being honest, I'm not entirely sure that Smith is the best WR prospect in this class. It's really close between the top 3. However, I think the areas in which Smith excels make him the best fit for Sirianni's offense.
  7. Detroit Lions - WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU. While QB was expected to be a target, thanks to the acquisition of Jared Goff the Lions do not need to draft a QB here. In fact, I think it's pretty unlikely that the Lions pick a QB here. Jared Goff has had success in the NFL and he's helped lead his team to a Super Bowl, he may not be a top QB but he's a capable starter. Given the influx of draft capital, the Lions cap situation, and the fact that Goff's contract is virtually unmovable for the next two years they are likely going to use this window to build the roster back up. While I think a CB could be a good fit here, they did just draft Okudah last year who should be given a chance to grow in a new defense, especially since the transition from college to the NFL takes longer at that position. Micah Parsons is tempting here too, as linebacker is a need for the Lions. But given the cap situation and the fact that Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and Danny Amendola are all set to be free agents, I've decided to give the Lions a WR. Not only does this give the Lions a cheap, young, and talented option at WR (allowing them to move on from some of those would-be free agents), he's also arguably the top prospect left on the board.
  8. Carolina Panthers - CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama. There are a lot of options the Panthers could go with here. I debated between Micah Parsons and Surtain here because while I think the Panthers defense should improve next year, they're still missing consistent ILB play as well as a true #1 CB. Ultimately I chose Surtain over Parsons based on positional value given similar position on my board. I also chose Surtain over Farley because I think he's a better fit in Phil Snow's defense. He's physical and sticky in coverage, and I think he would be a great complement at cornerback to go with safety Chinn. I think OL could be considered here, but I'm not sure reaching for OL when there is better value at other positions of need makes sense. Trey Lance could be an option here, but I (perhaps incorrectly) think Fitterer and Rhule will pass on a QB if they can get a top defensive prospect. This would effectively buy another year for them to build up the roster if they choose to go with a QB in the first round of 2022.
  9. Miami Dolphins (from Denver) - LB Micah Parsons, Penn State. Thanks to a number of trades, real and mocked, the Dolphins have a lot of draft capital and they can use some of that to get weapons for Tua Tagovailoa. But here, they take the best player still on the board. Brian Flores loves to blitz, and Parsons is one of the best blitzing linebacker prospects in years. Jaylen Waddle would be a good pick here too, but the fit is too perfect for me to pass here.
  10. Dallas Cowboys - CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech. The Cowboys offense will not be a problem with Prescott back in the lineup. The defense needs a lot of work though, so as tempting as Kyle Pitts may be the Cowboys will almost certainly go defense here. The Cowboys have some cornerbacks set to be free agents but they are not worth re-signing. Farley is the best cornerback on the board and is a great value here for Dallas. The Cowboys could look at a couple other positions on defense, but they won't find the value they'd be getting in Caleb Farley.
  11. Chicago Bears (from New York Giants) - QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State. With the 49ers pick looming, the Bears pull the trigger to move up and get their QB. The Bears have Nick Foles under contract for two more years but he can be cut after next season. Given that situation, the Bears can afford to sit Lance for at least a year and let him develop. He's got all of the tools to be a great QB, but due to the fact that he only played one year at the FCS level, he falls to 11.
  12. San Francisco 49ers - CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina. Injuries decimated a roster that is talented enough to compete for championships when healthy, so the 49ers can afford to focus on needs. Horn might be seen as a reach here by some, but the drop-off at cornerback is huge and the 49ers need to address the position in the offseason with so many impending free agents. Regardless, Horn is an excellent prospect and be a good pick for first time DC Ryans.
  13. Los Angeles Chargers - OL Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC. Justin Herbert emerged as one of the most promising young QBs in the game despite poor offensive line play. The Chargers need to improve the line, so they can't justify reaching for a tackle because of positional value. They just need to take the best lineman on the board, and that's Vera-Tucker. There's some discussion as to whether he can make it as a tackle at the next level, but most have him projected as a guard. Wherever he plays, he should be an upgrade for the Chargers.
  14. Minnesota Vikings - EDGE Kwity Paye, Michigan. The Vikings would love to improve their interior offensive line, but there's better value on day 2, so the Vikings go with a pass rusher here. The Vikings had one of the best defenses in 2019, and a big part of that was the pass rush. Last year however, the pass rush was ineffective and the defense fell apart. Getting Danielle Hunter back and pairing him with Paye while rotating D.J. Wonnum and Jalyn Holmes in could restore the Vikings pass rush and help get them back to the postseason.
  15. New England Patriots - LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame. Although he played in a different scheme at Notre Dame than Bill Belichick uses, Owusu-Koramoah is one of the most versatile defenders in the class. He has shown the ability to rush the passer, drop back in coverage, and his elite sideline to sideline speed for the position that makes him an ideal linebacker against modern offenses. The Patriots need to get younger and faster on defense. As much as I want to add a weapon like Waddle or Pitts to the Patriots, I'm just not convinced that Belichick will actually do that in the first round.
  16. Arizona Cardinals - EDGE Jaelan Phillips, Miami (FL). With Haason Reddick and Markus Golden both set to hit free agency, and Chandler Jones coming off of an injury, heading into his age 31 season, and on the final year of his contract, the Cardinals pass rush is inevitably going to look different in the next couple of years. With a prospect as good as Phillips on the board, drafting him to replace Jones and re-signing Reddick will give the Cardinals a formidable pass rush for the foreseeable future. If the Cardinals want to continue to close the gap with the Rams and Seahawks, they can't let their pass rush decline.
  17. Las Vegas Raiders - WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama. Every year a couple players drop farther than they should. This year, one of those players is Jaylen Waddle. The Raiders need to improve their defense, and there are some tempting players on the board for the Raiders to take, such as Gregory Rousseau. But the Raiders outside threats could have been better this year, and Jon Gruden will jump at the opportunity to put Waddle with Waller and Ruggs. Waddle is up there with the best weapons in this class, so this is a great value for the Raiders at 17.
  18. Miami Dolphins - WR Kadarius Toney, Florida. Having already landed one of the best defensive players, Miami now turns its attention to surrounding Tagovailoa with the talent to thrive. The Dolphins got good production from DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki, but could upgrade the rest of their receiving corps. Toney is electric and gives the Dolphins a playmaker over the middle of the field, which is exactly what Miami could use to help Tagovailoa grow.
  19. Washington Football Team - TE Kyle Pitts, Florida. Washington didn't get their QB in this draft, but they get incredible value at 19 in Pitts. Besides Terry McLaurin, Washington doesn't really have a true playmaker at receiver so Pitts would immediately upgrade the offense. Given how good Washington's defense is, if they can't get a QB by trading up their main goal should be to improve their weapons and Pitts would be the ideal scenario.
  20. New York Giants (from Chicago) - EDGE Gregory Rousseau, Miami (FL). The Giants biggest need is probably their wide receiver room, but with the top prospect on the board being a pass rusher, the Giants go with one of the highest upside defensive prospects in the class in Rousseau. The Giants don't have a lot of talent on the edge, so they fill a need here.
  21. Indianapolis Colts - OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech. The Colts have boasted one of the best offensive lines in the NFL in recent years, and with Anthony Castonzo retiring, the Colts will want to keep their line in top shape by drafting his replacement. His length, athleticism, and intelligence make him the preferred tackle target for the Colts here.
  22. Tennessee Titans - EDGE Joseph Ossai, Texas. The Titans are a very good team, and most improvements that could be made would be to improve depth. But the one area the Titans desperately need to improve if they want to legitimately compete for championships is their pass rush and defensive line. Ossai is the most explosive pass rush prospect left on the board who can fit with their defensive scheme.
  23. San Francisco 49ers (from New York Jets via Seattle) – QB Mac Jones, Alabama. The 49ers move up to get the guy they believe can be their next franchise QB. In this scenario, the 49ers were targeting Trey Lance at 12, but because of the Chicago trade, they opted instead to take Horn, who is higher on the draft board and can help their secondary which will be losing some pieces to free agency. When Mac Jones gets past Washington at 19, they believe they can move up into the mid-20s for a reasonable value and get their QB. The best value in terms of trading draft capital is at 23, and they have to make this move to get ahead of Pittsburgh who could potentially take Jones to replace Ben Roethlisberger. The 49ers are now without a pick until the 5th round, but it's worth it to secure their QB of the future.
  24. Pittsburgh Steelers - OT Jalen Mayfield, Michigan. The Steelers cap space isn't great right now, although Roethlisberger restructuring his contract will help. In any case, the Steelers are going to have to move on from some players, and one that makes sense is Alejandro Villanueva. He's played well, but he's going to be 33 next year, and rather than paying a veteran LT salary with tight cap space, it makes sense to draft his replacement. Mayfield is very technically sound and is nasty, two things that have defined Pittsburgh offensive line play over the years. There may be concern about him playing right tackle at Michigan, but as Jedrick Wills proved for the Browns, a move to left tackle is possible for a top prospect. Running back is also a possibility here, but there's better value in later rounds.
  25. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Los Angeles Rams) - S Trevon Moehrig, TCU. The Jaguars weren't accidentally the number one pick. They were terrible on both offense and defense, and with so much early draft capital they don't have to reach on players in the name of protecting Lawrence at all costs. The Jaguars have some nice weapons on offense, and there will be good offensive line prospects on the board in the second round. They need to improve their secondary badly, and Moehrig is an immediate impact player with good versatility, and would be an instant upgrade over Josh Jones, who should not return to the team in 2021. Moehrig is arguably the highest graded prospect left on the board, he has a high floor, he's ready to play right away, and he fills a need.
  26. Cleveland Browns - LB Zaven Collins, Tulsa. The Browns have a lot of holes on defense, and linebacker in particular is an area that they need to address. Despite being massive for a linebacker, Collins is quick and athletic and can play in coverage. He also has good pass rushing ability, which is an area that Cleveland needs to improve opposite of Myles Garrett. His versatility makes him valuable in multiple packages which should help him get on the field early, something that Cleveland should value at the end of the first round given that their competitive window is open.
  27. Baltimore Ravens - EDGE Azeez Ojulari, Georgia. The Ravens need to give Lamar Jackson better weapons on the outside, but with such a good, deep running attack, the Ravens can afford to wait until the second round. The Ravens have several pass rushers set to become free agents, and they won't be able to bring all of them back. In any case, the Ravens could use an upgrade at the position anyway. Although Ojulari played in 4 man fronts, his size, speed, and athleticism make him a natural fit as an edge rusher in a 3 man front defense. His energy is also a great fit for the Ravens defense.
  28. New Orleans Saints - EDGE Jayson Oweh, Penn State. The Saints have the worst cap situation in the NFL and because of that they're going to lose some key free agents. One guy that they almost certainly will not be able to retain is breakout DE Trey Hendrickson, who registered 13.5 sacks in 2020 and should be in line for a nice raise on the free agent market. Oweh has tremendous upside due to his freakish athleticism, explosiveness, and length. He's a bit raw, and will need some time to develop, but with Cameron Jordan on the opposite side of the line Oweh is the type of player the Saints can afford to target.
  29. Green Bay Packers - WR Tutu Atwell, Louisville. Aaron Rodgers covers the deficiencies of the wide receiver room well, but the Packers do need to improve their weapons. Adams and Tonyan are good pieces, but St. Brown, Lazard, and Valdez-Scantling can't be the secondary options at wide receiver. Adding an electric slot receiver in Atwell makes sense given the profile of the rest of the receivers on the roster.
  30. Buffalo Bills - EDGE Joe Tryon, Washington. The Bills have a very complete roster, but they could definitely improve their pass rush. Getting to the quarterback, namely Patrick Mahomes, will be the Bills best chance of getting over the hump and into the Super Bowl. Tryon is a nice scheme fit, and should be able to see the field instantly, something a contender like Buffalo will be looking for here. I was tempted to mock a running back here, as there's great talent left on the board, but I think the Bills are more likely to ride with their 3rd round picks from 2019 and 2020, Singletary and Moss.
  31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DT Levi Onwuzurike, Washington. The Buccaneers have a loaded offense, so the focus should be on the defense, specifically the defensive line. With Gholston having only one more year on his contract, and Suh set to be a free agent, a high upside 3-tech like Onwuzurike makes a lot of sense here. Not to mention, a team that is good enough to make the super bowl can afford to draft BPA, and Onwuzurike is among the best players still on the board here.
  32. Kansas City Chiefs - OL Alex Leatherwood, Alabama. Kansas City needs to start getting younger on the offensive line. Both Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz are under contract for 2021, but after that they're free agents. Leatherwood has shown the versatility to slide in anywhere on the line, and could be a day one starter for the Chiefs wherever they need him. This pick could also be used on another weapon or a defensive player, but the value here is too good for Leatherwood.
Round 2
  1. Jacksonville Jaguars - DL Dayvion Nixon, Iowa. One of the hallmarks of Urban Meyer's Florida and Ohio State teams were deep, talented defensive lines. The Jaguars have a few nice pieces in Josh Allen and Doug Costin, but overall the unit needs to improve. Nixon is one of only a few interior defensive line prospects who offers high upside impact, and getting him here at the start of the second round is good value.
  2. New York Jets - CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern. The Jets have problems with their cornerbacks. Their best cornerback is set to be a free agent, but even if he returns he's only a slot corner. Bryce Hall has shown a lot of promise, but there's not much on the roster behind him. Newsome is a smart, instinctive corner who will fit into Saleh's scheme nicely, and should be ready to compete for a starting role early.
  3. Atlanta Falcons - RB Najee Harris, Alabama. While it may be unlikely that there are no running backs in the first round (hasn't happened since 2014), I think this draft is so talented that it could happen. As I said earlier, I think the Arthur Smith will try to make win now moves and having a power running game is an important part of Arthur Smith's offensive philosophy. Najee Harris is the top running back on the board and the top prospect left on the board, so everything from fit to value is excellent here for Atlanta.
  4. Miami Dolphins (from Houston) - RB Travis Etienne, Clemson. Another running back off the board, this time it's the electric back from Clemson. Having already added Toney, now the Miami offense gets arguably the top receiving back in the class. This move makes the offense one of the fastest in the league, and the combination of Etienne and Gaskin gives the Dolphins one of the best young running back rooms in the league.
  5. Philadelphia Eagles - CB Eric Stokes, Georgia. I nearly went with a CB in round 1 for the Eagles, but it was too hard to pass up on a receiver. The Eagles have a nice CB1 in Slay, but he's getting older and the rest of the CB group needs to be upgraded. Stokes has the ideal size, speed, and length that teams are looking for on the outside and has the experience to challenge for a starting spot early.
  6. Cincinnati Bengals - EDGE Patrick Jones II, Pittsburgh. The Bengals already added a top offensive lineman for Burrow, but they have to address the defense early on. Even if the Bengals re-sign Lawson, they need to have more talent on the defensive line to get pressure on opposing QBs. Jones is a good scheme fit and his versatility makes him an attractive option here in the 2nd round.
  7. Carolina Panthers - LB Nick Bolton, Missouri. The Panthers add another impact playmaker for Phil Snow's defense, a guy who could fill the void that they were unable to fill after Keuchly's retirement. There are several options here, but Bolton at 39 is incredible value and the Panthers jump all over a guy with first round upside.
  8. Miami Dolphins (from Denver) - C Landon Dickerson, Alabama. Ted Karras is set to be a free agent, but Miami can upgrade the center position here and get the best prospect at the position in the draft. Dickerson has positional versatility and is well respected for his leadership so this is a great value and culture pick for Miami.
  9. Detroit Lions - CB Aaron Robinson, UCF. Robinson has the ideal size and length that NFL teams look for, and he's got a lot of experience both inside and outside. The production from the Lions CB room was abysmal in 2020, so more talent needs to be added, even if Jeff Okudah makes the expected year two leap.
  10. New York Giants - WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC. Dave Gettleman is a meat and potatoes guy, and he got his high upside defensive lineman in the first round. But he's going to have to start giving Daniel Jones weapons if they really believe he's the future. Obviously getting Saquon Barkley back will help, but the wide receiver room is aging, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is an outside receiver with WR1 potential who can inject youth and talent into that position group for the Giants.
  11. New York Jets (from San Francisco) - OG Wyatt Davis, Ohio State. The fact that the Jets have a weak offensive line is no secret. Mekhi Becton was a home run draft pick at left tackle last season, but the Jets need to continue adding offensive line talent to avoid their next franchise QB getting killed. Despite another All-American season, Davis' 2020 tape is not as good as his 2019 tape, so he falls to the mid-2nd here. While there are some concerns, he's the best interior offensive line prospect left on the board and he does have upside.
  12. Dallas Cowboys - DT Christian Barmore, Alabama. The Cowboys defense needs to improve, especially in the run game. Neville Gallimore showed promise, but adding Barmore gives the defensive line a lot more depth and talent. Barmore has the experience to step in right away and produce, something that will be important for the Cowboys who should be looking to win a down NFC East with a healthy Prescott.
  13. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Minnesota) - TE Pat Freiermuth, Penn State. Friermuth is an excellent pass catching TE, but he's also one of the better blocking tight ends in this class. This versatility addresses two needs for Jaguars on offense. There's a lot of upside in the Jaguars WR room, so adding a playmaker at TE makes sense, especially because their top tight ends are getting older.
  14. New England Patriots - WR Terrace Marshall Jr., LSU. The Patriots need to address the wide receiver position, and after passing on a WR in the first round they land a falling Marshall with the 46th pick, so the Patriots end up with a great value in the 2nd round.
  15. Los Angeles Chargers - OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State. The Chargers line was so bad, and the value at 47 is so good, that I'm going to mock the Chargers double dipping at offensive line with their first two picks. Sam Tevi's contract is up, and he was not good enough to re-sign. The Chargers have to upgrade this spot, and getting a guy like Jenkins here is an easy decision.
  16. Las Vegas Raiders - DT Marlon Tuipulotu, USC. The Raiders need to upgrade the defensive line, especially on the interior where Maliek Collins and Johnathan Hankins were not high impact players. Tuipulotu has great strength and technique, and has three years of starting experience so he should be ready to start right away for the Raiders.
  17. Arizona Cardinals - CB Asante Samuel Jr., Florida State. Arguably the biggest need for Arizona is cornerback, but with the way the board fell in the first the value was better for other positions of need. Here in the 2nd, they get one of the stickiest corners in the draft. He's a bit undersized, but he's great in man coverage and will be a good scheme fit for Vance Joseph's defense.
  18. Miami Dolphins - EDGE Ronnie Perkins, Oklahoma. The Dolphins pick for the fifth time in this mock already, and have addressed a lot of needs so far. One area where they could get better is pass rush depth. While Perkins doesn't jump out as an ideal fit in Flores' defensive scheme, he's got the size, strength, and athleticism should allow him to transition to a standup edge rusher, or rotate in on pass rush situations with his hand on the dirt. He's got all the tools to create pressure in the NFL, and would give Flores a weapon that would allow him to get creative with his defensive play calls.
  19. Washington Football Team - OT Samuel Cosmi, Texas. Washington has an aging line, so getting some youth in the building would be a good strategy. Cornelius Lucas played well enough to have a chance to win the starting LT job in 2021, but he'll be 30 and in a contract year and Morgan Moses will have two years left on his contract. Financially it would make sense to get a long term solution at tackle early in the draft. Cosmi's strengths are a good fit for Scott Turner's blocking schemes.
  20. New York Giants (from Chicago) - CB Tyson Campbell, Georgia. Using this additional pick acquired from Chicago, the Giants address three of their biggest needs in the first two rounds by taking Campbell to go with Rousseau and St. Brown. There are definitely issues on Campbell's tape, but his assignment's in Graham's defense should minimize those weaknesses while maximizing his strength in man coverage. Campbell has elite size, length, and athleticism, so he has tremendous upside.
  21. Tennessee Titans - WR Rondale Moore, Purdue. The Titans have a very good offense, but are likely going to move on from Corey Davis after the emergence of A.J. Brown. Adding arguably the most electric playmaker in the draft, Rondale Moore, would help keep the Titans offense among the most potent in the NFL.
  22. New York Jets (from Indianapolis) - RB Javonte Williams, UNC. The Jets need to add some weapons, and with Jamison Crowder and Denzel Mims on the roster, and better free agent options such as Allen Robinson, Corey Davis, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Kenny Golladay potentially hitting the market, the Jets can add the best weapon on the board, Javonte Williams. He's excellent in the passing game and should fit nicely with the new running scheme.
  23. Kansas City Chiefs (from Pittsburgh) - WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota. With one of the top WR prospects still on the board, and a number of teams ahead of them who could look for a WR, the Chiefs pull the trigger and move up. The Steelers, who have a lot of players headed to free agency, are happy to move down and get more draft picks to try to rebuild the roster with cheaper contracts. Bateman is a good route runner with excellent high point skills, so he's a perfect fit in the offense to replace Watkins.
  24. Seattle Seahawks - OT Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State. The Seahawks need to make a move on the offensive line at some point, and Radunz is a good prospect here. Cedric Ogbuehi is a free agent, but they could upgrade at RT anyway, and Duane Brown is 35 and only has one year left on his contract. The Seahawks could possibly look at a pass rusher or cornerback here, but the best value on the board is at tackle.
  25. Los Angeles Rams - LB Baron Browning, Ohio State. There are rumblings that some teams view Browning as a potential first round talent. The athleticism is off the charts, and he's got the speed, explosiveness, length, and motor that NFL teams covet. The upside is undeniable and he's lauded for his character and leadership. Combine that with his experience and versatility, and he's the kind of guy who can come in right away and upgrade the Rams inside linebacker spot, one of the few positions that needs a major upgrade for a team that's going all in to win a Super Bowl.
  26. Baltimore Ravens - WR Nico Collins, Michigan. The Ravens need to give Lamar Jackson better weapons on the outside, and Nico Collins has elite size and vertical ball skills, something the Ravens are missing at wide receiver. A lot of the best remaining day 2 caliber receivers are better suited for a slot role, so the Ravens pull the trigger on one of the best outside guys left on the board.
  27. Cleveland Browns - EDGE Jordan Smith, UAB. The Browns desperately need to get some pass rushing help opposite of Myles Garrett. There are some red flags with Smith, but the size and athleticism of Smith make him too good to pass up here. With Collins and Smith, the Browns defense gets a lot bigger, faster, and more talented.
  28. New Orleans Saints - LB Chazz Surratt, North Carolina. All of the Saints moves are going to be made with the salary cap in mind. One of the obvious cost saving moves is to cut Kwon Alexander. The Saints would save more than $13 million without taking on any dead money. Surratt is an excellent player who provides the Saints good value here.
  29. Buffalo Bills - DT Jay Tufele, USC. The Bills will want to add a cornerback at some point, but with the way the board has fallen Tufele is too good of a value here to pass up on. The Bills need to get better interior defensive line play, and Tufele fits nicely into Frazier's defensive scheme, so this is a good fit as well.
  30. Green Bay Packers - CB Ifeatu Melifonwu, Syracuse. The Packers could address a number of positions here, but Kevin King played poorly and is set to become a free agent anyway. Melifonwu has elite size, and has been climbing draft boards. He may be a bit of a project, but we're getting into the range where there are very few instant impact guys left on the board.
  31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - C Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma. With Donovan Smith, Ryan Jensen, and Aaron Stinnie's contracts all set to expire either this year or next year, adding some offensive line help makes sense. Jensen is the weakest of the group, and will likely walk in 2021 if the Buccaneers can acquire a top prospect through the draft. Regardless, the Buccaneers are going to have to add more depth to the center group so the talented Humphrey fills a need.
  32. Pittsburgh Steelers (from Kansas City) - RB Michael Carter, North Carolina. James Conner is set to be a free agent, and it makes financial sense for the Steelers to move on from him. Carter is an excellent value at the bottom of the second round, and he's excellent in the passing game, so he'll be a great fit for the Steelers. Running backs also have the ability to make an impact right away, which is crucial for a team looking to make one last run with QB Ben Roethlisberger.
Third Round
  1. Jacksonville Jaguars - OT Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame.
  2. New York Jets - WR Elijah Moore, Ole Miss.
  3. Houston Texans - S Jevon Holland, Oregon.
  4. Atlanta Falcons - EDGE, Carlos Basham Jr., Wake Forrest.
  5. Cincinnati Bengals - WR D'Wayne Eskridge, Western Michigan.
  6. Philadelphia Eagles - EDGE Quincy Roche, Miami (FL).
  7. Miami Dolphins (from Denver) - S Richie Grant, UCF.
  8. Detroit Lions - LB Cameron McGrone, Michigan.
  9. Carolina Panthers - QB Kyle Trask, Florida.
  10. Washington Football Team (from San Francisco) - CB Elijah Molden, Washington.
  11. Dallas Cowboys - LB Pete Werner, Ohio State.
  12. New York Giants - OT James Hudson, Cincinnati.
XX. New England Patriots - Forfeited
  1. Los Angeles Chargers - DT Tommy Togiai, Ohio State.
  2. Minnesota Vikings - OG Ben Cleveland, Georgia.
  3. Arizona Cardinals - C Josh Myers, Ohio State.
  4. Las Vegas Raiders - S Ar'Darius Washington, TCU.
  5. Miami Dolphins - CB Shaun Wade, Ohio State.
  6. Washington Football Team - WR Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State.
  7. Chicago Bears - OT Walker Little, Stanford.
  8. Indianapolis Colts - EDGE Hamilcar Rashed Jr., Oregon State.
  9. Tennessee Titans - DT Marvin Wilson, Florida State.
  10. New York Jets (from Seattle) - LB Charles Snowden, Virginia.
  11. Pittsburgh Steelers - WR Shi Smith, South Carolina.
  12. Detroit Lions (from Los Angeles Rams) - S Hamsah Nasirildeen, Florida State.
  13. Cleveland Browns - DT Jaylen Twyman, Pittsburgh.
  14. Minnesota Vikings (from Baltimore) - WR Amari Rodgers, Clemson.
  15. Cleveland Browns (from New Orleans) - WR Seth Williams, Auburn.
  16. Green Bay Packers - EDGE Payton Turner, Houston.
  17. Buffalo Bills - CB Paulson Adebo, Stanford.
  18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - EDGE Dayo Odeyingbo, Vanderbilt.
  19. Pittsburgh Steelers (from Kansas City) - TE Brevin Jordan, Miami (FL).
Compensatory Picks
  1. New England Patriots - QB Davis Mills, Stanford.
  2. Los Angeles Chargers - TE Hunter Long, Boston College.
  3. New Orleans Saints - RB Jermar Jefferson, Oregon State.
  4. Dallas Cowboys - S Andre Cisco, Syracuse.
  5. Tennessee Titans - OT Brady Christensen, BYU.
  6. Los Angeles Rams - CB Israel Mukuamu, South Carolina.
  7. San Francisco 49ers - EDGE Victor Dimukeje, Duke.
  8. Los Angeles Rams - OT Spencer Brown, Northern Iowa.
  9. Baltimore Ravens - DT Tyler Shelvin, LSU.
  10. New Orleans Saints - CB Kary Vincent Jr., LSU.
Trades:
Indianapolis Colts receive: QB Sam Darnold New York Jets receive: Indianapolis 2021 2nd, 5th
This trade value is based on internet rumors and a similar trade in 1987, where the San Francisco 49ers sent a 2nd and 4th round pick to Tampa Bay for 2nd year starter Steve Young. Steve Young was 3-16, with 11 TDs, 21 INTs, a 53.3 comp% and a 63.1 QB rating in two seasons with Tampa Bay but his upside netted a nice return. I think for several reasons, such as the fact that neither Douglas nor Saleh drafted Darnold and the potential to reset the cap window by drafting a 1st round QB, the Jets will trade Darnold. The Colts have a good offensive line and much better weapons than the Jets, so Indianapolis could be a good destination for Darnold after they missed out on Stafford.
***
Denver receives: Houston 2021 1st (3) via Miami Miami receives: Denver 2021 1st (9), 2nd (40), 3rd (71), 2022 1st, 2nd, 2023 2nd
***
Chicago receives: New York Giants 2021 1st (11) New York Giants receive: Chicago 1st (20), 2nd (52), 2022 1st
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San Francisco receives: Seattle 2021 1st (23) via New York Jets New York Jets receive: San Francisco 2021 2nd (43), 4th, 2022 2nd
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Kansas City receives: Pittsburgh 2021 2nd (55) Pittsburgh receives: Kansas City 2021 2nd (64), 3rd (95) ***
QB Notes: New England signs Ryan Fitzpatrick Indianapolis trades for Sam Darnold from New York Jets New Orleans re-signs Jameis Winston Washington re-signs Kyle Allen
submitted by burnercmw to NFL_Draft [link] [comments]

Every teams FA WR's after this season. Possible useful info perhaps maybe!

Arizona Cardinals
The number two behind Hopkins is wide open in my eyes, Kirk has been meh other than that 3 week stretch. Isabella isn't the solution either. Free agency could add a solid option.
Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravens
Pretty crowded behind Hollywood but no Snead could mean more work for Boykin and Duvernay.
Buffalo Bills
Not much here other than Kroft likely leaving town and Knox moving on up. Maybe Beasley or Brown get moved?
Carolina Panthers
Chicago Bears
They still need to figure out a QB but Mooney and Miller without Robinson. -Dr. Dre daaaaaaaamnface.gif-
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Dallas Cowboys
Should be back to normal with Dak under center next year, Gallup is FA in 2022
Denver Broncos
Detroit Lions
Let me have a Red Bull quick......Ok......
All those names up there means Cephus could easily be a #2 guy. Don't need to say much about Cephus that hasn't been discussed at length. Lions are picking 5th, could add someone and let 'em all walk. Super interesting sutuation!
Green Bay Packers
Tonyan is up for contract this year too, could let him walk and hope Sternberger or Deguara pan out.
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Yeesh unexpected Red Bull required
A decision will be made at TE for this team too with Cox and Burton both pending FA's. Do they keep both and punt Doyle?! The real question here is Rivers. Do they resign? Move to Eason? Draft someone? If Rivers is back then there are some good options here.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Lawrence should bring some life into this team. Chark, Shenault, and C. Johnson will be the teams top receivers next year if things go how I want them to.
Kansas City Chiefs
Las Vegas Raiders
I mean the team has Ruggs, Edwards, Renfrow, Waller. OH and 11 million American dollars a year Tyrell Williams. God that contract is bad. Carr is not gonna be able to take this team anywhere, the sooner they learn that the sooner the above names matter.
LA Chargers
No WR's without a contract this year. Hunter Henry could be outta town though which could free up some targets.
LA Rams
Miami Dolphins
All good here other than Isiah Ford. I see them adding a weapon if Hurns decides to nope out again
Minnesota Vikings
This offense is gonna look the same for a few years, pretty good not bad.
New England Patriots
It probably looks like I'm not even trying by this point in the breakdown. They could lose Damiere Byrd but what they really need is a full reset.
New Orleans Saints
Again, no one walking this year but next year could be a real mix up. Does Bree's call it? Is Thomas sour?
New York Giants
Yeah nothing, Alfred Morris makes more than Slayton though lol.
New York Jets
Philadelphia Eagles
Hurts is at the helm but they got Ertz, Goedert, Alshon, DeSean, and Fulgham to resign next year.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Claypool being great makes Juju leaving a lot easier and Diontae looks great as well. More targets for those two gotta be coming down the pipe. Feel like they add a vet on a cheap deal this offseason.
San Francisco 49ers
They gotta figure out what they are doing at RB.
Seattle Seahawks
Josh Gordon is a FA too but do we really expect that to happen. Stop trying to make Josh Gordon happen. This team has Dorsett too?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This team is built for this year, Gronk could retire again, but I bet he signs on for another year with Brady.
Tennessee Titans
Washington Football Team
Hope this was a decently entertaining look at what teams WR cores might look like next year! Open to criticism in the comments if you feel so inclined! Thanks!
submitted by Lumpy21 to DynastyFF [link] [comments]

Fantasy diamonds for 2020

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Now that we are close to a lot of people’s fantasy drafts, I wanted to hand out some names that I frequently end up with when I do mocks, just because I have them higher in my rankings. So these are players, who present value based on their ADP (average draft position), all as an average between the three biggest platforms for fantasy football – NFL.com, ESPN and Yahoo. That’s as of August 20th, with the first two having a full-PPR scoring system and the last one being set to .5PPR. They also all have a standard lineup of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 FLEX, 1 TE, 1 DEF and 1 K. I had to wait until now, so that the draft data is representative of what people actually think of these players, especially with so many mocks having the majority of users set as auto-picks and distort the results.
So I will talk about what I like about these players heading into 2020, maybe a couple of concerns and talk a little bit about what I look at them as, compared to the where people are selecting them in their mock drafts. I listed three guys for every position that fills one spot in your standard lineup (QB, TE, DEF) and five for running back and wide receiver respectively. Oh, and I’m not doing kickers here – just pick one from the high-scoring team and that you know has a proven track record of converting on his opportunities.
Here are some of my favorite value picks:
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Quarterbacks:

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Tom Brady
ADP – 79.57 (QB9)
This seems weird to put a name here that is discussed as probably the greatest of all time and who hasn’t been on my radar as a fantasy option for a long time (especially since I usually pick my QBs very late), but I think there has never as much value with Tom Brady as this upcoming season. TB12 was QB12 last season with a broken-down Julian Edelman, who led the league in dropped passes, to go with a former first-round bust in Philip Dorsett, an undrafted rookie in Jakobi Meyers and a Mohamed Sanu, who looked like one of the worst in-season acquisitions of 2019, as the three next-most productive receivers, combining for less than 1000 yards. To go along with that he had what looks like a bad first-round choice in N’Keal Harry and the league’s least productive tight-end room. Now he is in Tampa Bay, where they have the premiere receiving duo in the game with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, a three-headed monster at tight-end, some interesting backs and pretty much a push as far as the O-line goes, while playing for a coach that is much more interesting in pushing the ball downfield. While having to learn a new system after two decades of being in New England and knowing every little intricacy about it will be a challenge no matter how long you’ve been around the league, just the sheer improvement in weapons and the increased chances to go down the field make me believe he will finisher multiple spots higher than he did in 2019. Brady has gone up quite a bit these last few weeks, but at the end of the eighth round, I think he is still a value pick. I personally have him about a round higher than that and when I do mocks, where I have my two starting RB and WR spots, my flex and one of each on the bench secured, this is a guy I end up with on quite a few occasions – even though this usually is the earliest I think about picking a QB, if nobody just falls right into my lap.
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Daniel Jones
ADP – 139.50 (QB20)
A name that already was controversial at the time of the actual draft and seems to be a little controversial in this discussion as a fantasy option as well is Daniel Jones. While there are some concerns, that I will get to in a second, let me give you some numbers. In terms of average points per start (12), only ten quarterbacks put up better numbers than Jones did last season. His 18.98 points in those starts were better than what Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady or Kyler Murray were able to put together. He had three different games with 4+ touchdowns and no picks (Lions, Jets, Washington) and you can’t overlook his effectiveness as a runner. Jones missed out by five carries to reach that 50-mark, but among the ones who did, he would have finished behind only Lamar Jackson with 6.2 yards per rushing attempt. He put up all those numbers despite having a banged up Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram being out for most of the time and getting sacked 38 times on 459 attempts. Now, he was highly inconsistent as a rookie, with those three games of 28+ fantasy points and not reaching 15 in any of the other contests, and his ten fumbles lost not only limited his opportunity to add to the scoring, but also directly lowered his total in the end. With that being said, I still think the offensive line will be better than it was a year ago and Jones’ top five options in the passing game will be healthy at the same time, at least for the start of 2020, which was never the case in year one for him. There are some guys like Darius Slayton, who I expect to break out in his second season, and while new offensive coordinator Jason Garrett will build on the run game, he could also involve his QB more in that area, similar to what they did in Dallas with Dak Prescott for the last few years.
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Drew Lock
ADP – 146.43 (QB23)
Before I talk about any of these numbers – the sample size for Drew Lock as a rookie was pretty small. He started the last five games of 2019 and averaged 13.6 points a week, with three games right around that number and two outliers – a 24-point affair at Houston, when he threw 3 TDs in the first half alone in an upset victory, and a 6.6-point blunder in a snowstorm at Kansas City. That is not necessarily something to get super-excited about and I don’t love some of the hype Lock has been receiving this offseason, but it doesn’t yet reflect in his fantasy ADP. The highest he is ranked on any of these platforms is 22nd (ESPN). While he did already have Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant as a rookie, the latter despite being the most productive rookie tight-end, heavily fluctuated with his weekly output, putting up 159 combined yards in two of those weeks and 19 combined in the other three. He will likely take another step, when you look at the history of the position. And now you replace DeSean Hamilton and Tim Patrick, who caught just 53 percent of the targets their way and averaged 6.2 yards per targets, with two stud rookies. Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy was my top-ranked receiver in the draft and create a dependable target due his highly advanced route-running and Penn State’s K.J. Hamler opens up the offense with his blazing speed, while being a nightmare to tackle in open space as part of RPOs for example. Even though Pat Shurmur didn’t last long as a head coach for the Giants, I still like what he can do for a young quarterback, in terms of forcing the opposition to defend the entire field and running more spread looks, which Lock is used to from college. Something Lock had issues with in year one is not accounting for roaming defenders, who didn’t have anybody in their area to cover, which will get better with having more people out on the route. And most importantly, I hope he gets encouraged to give his receivers chances down the field, which he was hesitant to at some point as a rookie.
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Others options I like:
Baker Mayfield (ADP 141.07; QB19)
Jared Goff (ADP 144.82; QB23)
Teddy Bridgewater (ADP 147.62; QB24)
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Running backs:

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Jonathan Taylor
ADP – 70.12 (RB24)
There seems to be a split between Jonathan Taylor believers, who watched him dominate college football and think he will take over this Colts backfield, and the ones who think he will be in a committee with Marlon Mack or even like scat-back Nyheim Hines to take on a larger role. Count me as a believer. If I told you there was this running back, who rushed for almost 6200 yards and 50 touchdowns in his three years in college, runs a 4.39 at 225 pounds and was selected in the second round by a team that doesn’t have a long-term answer at quarterback on the roster and could have used some of the edge rushers or corners that went off the board in that range, which role do you think he will have? Marlon Mack is a really solid back and I was actually higher on him than most people coming out of South Florida, but this kid from Wisconsin is special. Last season Mack rushed for 1091 yards in 14 games, yet all but 500 of them came before contact. He finished third in the league in terms of time behind the line of scrimmage at over three seconds and his 4.4 yards per carry, running behind what I believe is the best offensive line in all of football, isn’t overly impressive, plus he has missed at least two games in all three years in the league. There are two concerns for me when it comes to Taylor. First, he didn’t contribute much as a receiver in college, but as a junior he more than doubled his previous output, catching 26 passes for 252 yards and an additional five TDs, while catching the ball pretty natural at the combine as well. The much bigger one is fumbles, as Taylor put the ball on the ground 18 times throughout his time with the Badgers, while Mack didn’t do so once on 261 touches last season. Some of that may have to do with carrying he rock 926 times overall, but that is definitely something to monitor. If he can take care of the ball, even if he doesn’t stay on field on passing downs a whole lot (needs refinement as a protector). I believe he will absolutely be a finalist for Offensive Rookie of the Year, because he has explosiveness, power and big-play ability to make a lot of noise.
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David Montgomery
ADP – 71.64 (RB26)
I already talked about Montgomery as one of my breakout candidates for 2020 (LINK). So you can read up on what I like about his skill-set there, but now let’s look at the situation this guy is in. While the Bears doesn’t blow you away with stars all over the field, but they do have one of the most underappreciated receivers in the game in Allen Robinson and another young guy in Anthony Miller, who could be used as a fly sweep threat to bind defenders or as the target on RPOs who will benefit from aggressively flowing defenders in the box. It is a little concerning me that, despite losing Kyle Long, the only addition they made on the offensive line was Germain Ifedi, but they didn’t have Long for three quarters of 2019 either. I think having second-round pick Cole Kmet as your true Y tight-end will help get the Bears backs to the edges at a higher frequency and I think the Matt Nagy offense will be stress defenses more with different personnel sets this season. Most important, Chicago did not add a single running back outside of undrafted free agent Artavis Piece this offseason and I expect Montgomery to take away some of the opportunities Tarik Cohen got last season, who averaged a miniscule 4.7 yards per touch, despite having 79 receptions. So they may use Cohen more as a true slot receiver, but at 5’6”, 190 pounds soaking wet, he will not run as much in-between the tackles (3.3 yards per carry) and Montgomery obviously will get all the goal-line work as well. The second-year back was a missed-tackle machine at Iowa State and when Nagy did allow him to gain some momentum without a defender getting hands on him before he could even cross the line of scrimmage, this guy showed some signs. He can make those subtle adjustements and cuts to not allow defenders to square him up and has the size to break tackles. He is a that I end up with a lot in the middle rounds.
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Raheem Mostert
ADP – 77.58 (RB27)
Somebody I was concerned with a few weeks ago, when he asked for a trade and I thought even if he stayed wasn’t on good terms with San Francisco, is Mostert. Now that they have sweetened the pot for him a little bit and he seems to locked in, I think him going in the 8th to 10th round make no sense. Mostert is coming a playoff run, in which he rushed for 336 yards and five touchdowns over three games, but people seem to forget that he also averaged 5.6 yards per rush during the regular season – second-highest behind only Lamar Jackson among players with 100+ attempts – and scored a touchdown every 15th time he touched the ball. Maybe the craziest statistic for Mostert is that in the ten total games he received double-digit carries, only once did he average less than 4.8 yards per attempt. If you look at the offensive line, not only did they their two starting tackles a combined 86 percent of the offensive snaps and I think a healthy Trent Williams could actually be a significant upgrade over what I saw from Joe Staley last year, but they also get starting center Weston Richburg back, who went on IR after week 13. Kyle Shanahan’s offense still goes through the rushing attack, where he is the very best at creating issues for the defense and stacking plays together, and that will be even more apparent without Emmanuel Sanders gone and probably missing Deebo Samuel for a few games early on. The one concern for me is that the Shanahan’s have always had at least two-back systems and there are capable players on that roster, with old friend Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon hopefully finally healthy after he got a big deal from San Fran two years ago and at least one more of the young guys. However, from week 12 on, when he gashed Baltimore’s number-five run defense for 146 yards, Mostert led the team in rush attempts and yards all but once and he has established himself as the top option in my opinion.
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J.K. Dobbins
ADP – 112.92 (RB38)
Another rookie that I think gets doubted because of the situation he is in is Dobbins, even though people look at it the wrong way. The Ravens just set a new all-time mark in rushing yards with 3296, which had stood for over 40 years, What people fear about grabbing anybody outside of the top two contributors is that they made up for 72.4 percent of their rushing production over the 15 games they played. However, not only do I believe that number to drop, but even then there were 218 carries left on the table for the rest of the squad. Quarterback Lamar Jackson actually led Baltimore with a QB-record 1206 yards on the ground and while he has shown that he is just a different breed in terms of not even allowing defenders to touch him in one-on-one situations and never showed any weakness getting up after a hit. I think it is very enthusiastic to believe he repeats those 176 carries. The top running back Mark Ingram also had an outstanding season, including 15 touchdowns, but he was on the field for only 45.6 percent of the snaps on offense and now on the wrong side of 30, it’s safe to assume he will give up some of that workload, especially considering there was no special talent on the roster to demand those chances. At the very worst, Dobbins should be able to replace what Gus Edwards did last season and that was worth over 700 rushing yards, averaging 5.3 yards a clip. But this kid was a 2000-yard workhorse at Ohio State last season and I had him as my number two back in the draft, thanks to his combination of explosiveness and strength, while having great ball-security fundamentals. He is a perfect fit in that zone-read heavy offense from shotgun, which he basically played in last season with the Buckeyes and another dual-threat QB. I would not be shocked if he emerges a few weeks into the season and ends up leading this team in rushing.
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Antonio Gibson
ADP – 141.61 (RB50)
If you are looking for a really deep sleeper, either if you are a zero-RB advocate or you just have your roster filled out already and just try to grab the player left on the board with the most upside, I think this is a name that has to be on your radar. Antonio Gibson primarily lined up at slot receiver for Memphis last season, but he was most effective taking handoffs and slicing through defenses that way. The explosion he has, the long-speed and that contact balance to bounce off hits are all on a different level to most backs in the league. Now, he has only really run two plays when in the backfield – power and stretch, mostly with another back on the opposite side of the QB in split sets – but he seems to have a natural feel for the position and he can do so much more for an offense. I believe Gibson will be a swiss-army knife for new offensive coordinator Scott Turner, who will move him around the formation, get him the ball on jet sweeps or as a decoy off those or create mismatches with slower defenders, as he comes out of the backfield. I was already pretty high on him, despite having an RB room that went five or six names deep at that point, because I believe he could be on the field for the majority of snaps anyway, thanks to his versatility, but now that Derrius Guice was let go due to some off-the-field stuff, the rookie is even more intriguing to me. When you look at who Washington is bringing back, their leading rushing from 2019 is a 35-year old Adrian Peterson and the next-closest guy is QB Dwayne Haskins with 101. And when you look at receiving yards, after the clear leader in Terry McLaurin, the next two names are RB Chris Thompson, who left in free agency, and Kelvin Harmon, who recently suffered a season-ending injury. So the offense is bound to improve and Gibson should have plenty of opportunities. That is golden for a running back around the 50s.
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Other options I like:
Cam Akers (ADP – 93.32; RB32)
Jordan Howard (ADP – 113.18; RB37)
Zack Moss (ADP – 131.88; RB47)
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Wide receivers:

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Calvin Ridley
ADP – 50.08 (WR17)
I’m pretty sure not a lot of people know Calvin Ridley was a top 15 fantasy wide receiver last season based on average points per game (15.2) in non-PPR leagues and top 18 in the two other formats as well. He averaged 9.3 yards per target and converted 47 of his 63 receptions into new first downs, despite his longest catch going for only 36 yards. He is more of a deep threat than that (especially of double-moves) and I would be shocked if he doesn’t have at least one 50-yarder this upcoming season, while also being an excellent red-zone receiver ever since coming into the league. Julio Jones is still the number one receiver on that team and I think the best as an actual player at the position in the world, but the Falcons want to take some pressure off him with Ridley. Atlanta’s top candidate for their WR3 role is Russell Gage, who had a fairly productive second season, but almost half of his yardage total came in the four games he started in place of Ridley. So he will not demand a target share in the same region as Mohamed Sanu, who the Falcons traded away mid-2019. While a lot of it is about Austin Hooper leaving town and I will talk about his replacement in the tight-end segment, this team has by far the highest amount of vacated targets from a year ago at 258. I would not pick guys like Cooper Kupp or Keenan Allen ahead of Ridley and while I have him right around that range among receivers, I have this guy about ten spots higher in my overall rankings, which a full round later in those stages of a draft presents excellent value. I thought the Falcons number two could make that Juju Smith-Schuster jump in his second season, but with injuries that might have just been postponed things by one year and we see less of a difference between him and Julio’s numbers in 2020. I think you can book Ridley for a 1000 yards and around double-digit TDs.
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Stefon Diggs
ADP – 65.81 (WR25)
This is one I don’t understand at all. Stefon Diggs “only” finished last season as the WR24 in full-PPR formats (18th in non-PPR), but he was within ten points of the guys that own the six spots above him, while missing one game. That was for a Vikings team that finished with the fourth-lowest pass play percentage (51.7%) and was in the bottom-six in terms of plays run per game (60.5). While Buffalo didn’t pass the ball at an immensely higher rate (about four percent more), they finished top ten in plays run, as they switched to a more up-tempo, 11 personnel attack – and that was without having a true number one and in the process not an ideal two. Diggs finished last season with the second-highest yards per target (12.0) and third in terms of percentage of his team’s air yardage, as the premiere deep threat in all of football. The one real concern here is that Josh Allen was one of the worst deep-ball thrower statistically last season, completing only 24.1 percent of his passes travelling 20+ yards through the air – dead-last according to Pro Football Focus- With that being said, a lot of that had to do with not having that guy, who can create separation vertically, with John Brown not showing that extra gear to gain a step on his defender and nobody else on the roster to average over eight yards per target with at least 15 grabs. Allen is still obviously not the most precise passer in the NFL and he has even more room to grow as a decision-maker at times, but having that guy who can streak downfield on go and post routes – especially in the mold Minnesota used him last season as that backside target on bootlegs – will open up the offense in a major way and Brian Daboll will encourage him to let it fly a few times each week to just let the defense know they need to account for it. I know I’m higher than pretty much anybody, but Diggs is my WR14 and a mid-fourth round pick for me.
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Terry McLaurin
ADP – 70.93 (WR26)
A second-year receiver I like a whole lot is this guy from Washington. McLaurin was phenomenal as a rookie. He went for 919 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, despite missing two games and being part of one of the very worst passing attacks in the entire league. His quarterback Dwayne Haskins had a really rough rookie campaign, completing only 58.3 percent of his passes for just over 150 yards per game and the same amount of touchdowns as interceptions (seven). So obviously a lot of this will come down to how much that guy can grow coming into his second season and how that will influence his top target, who he already had built up plenty of chemistry with at Ohio State before joining the same team in the pros. I personally had a top-20 grade on Haskins and think he will make a big jump now that he is in better shape and had a full offseason to watch tape and hopefully be able to work through progressions more quickly. He simply wasn’t ready when thrown out there last season and had a brutal welcome to the NFL. However, even if Ron Rivera decides to go a different route with who lines up under center at some point, the offense should be much more beneficial for the young star receiver. Last season, Washington finished 30th in neutral situation pass rate and 31st in pace, while the Panthers with Scott Turner calling shots were fourth and fifth in those respective categories. Now as the new offensive coordinator in the nation’s capital, I expect this offense to be much more wide open and McLaurin will be his new version of D.J. Moore in that attack, who went for almost 1200 yards in 15 games last year. Right now this kid is going anywhere from the sixth to the ninth round, depending on the platform you use, and I think he should be a fourth-rounder, simply because of the changes offensively and the fact he is their clear-cut number one option.
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Marvin Jones
ADP – 111.03 (WR39)
One of the most overlooked receivers this year to me is Marvin Jones. This guy is going between wide receiver 36 and 42 depending on the platform, despite having finished 15th in average fantasy points in PPR-formats last season. Now, he has missed ten combined games over the last two seasons, but in the three years prior he missed only one total game and the last time he played a full 16 contests (2017), he led the league with 18.0 yards per reception. Since coming to Detroit, Jones’ average receptions per game have gone up every single season and over these last three years, he has scored half a touchdown per week. Obviously Kenny Golladay is and will remain the top target in that offense and you would assume the chances for second-year tight-end T.J. Hockenson will increase, already because he was a top-ten pick alone, but Jones also caught passes from Jeff Driskel and David Blough over his final five games rather than the uber-talented Matthew Stafford, during which he averaged 18 yards less per week. While Detroit used their second-round pick on another running back in D’Andre Swift (Georgia) and the offense will be built on the rushing attack, number 11 will frequently be the target off deep play-action and the Lions really only have three relevant receivers on that roster. So at this point, Jones is going as a low WR4 at best and I personally look at him as a nice flex option. Grabbing him a round later than a guy like Julian Edelman and using that other pick for like a high-upside rookie back or maybe a QB/TE you like in that range makes a lot of sense to me. I really like him as a fallback option if you go RB-heavy early on and you only have two dependable receivers on your roster at that point.
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Diontae Johnson
ADP – 125.54 (WR43)
I had several candidates to choose from for this final wide receiver spot, but in the end I went with the guy I think could be the best of the bunch and will receive the biggest boost in quarterback play. Diontae Johnson quietly hauled in 59 passes for 680 yards and five touchdowns as a rookie. That was despite the ball being thrown by Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges, who combined for just 186.3 passing yards per game (31st in the league) and tying for an NFL-low 4.5 air yards per completion. This year the Steelers get Ben Roethlisberger back under center, who led the league with 5129 passing yards in 2018 and even at 70-80 percent of himself should be a major upgrade over the two guys, who are clearly on the lower end of backup material even. I recently talked about Johnson’s skill-set more in detail and said he was be breakout candidate(LINK!!), because I saw start-stop quickness to win as a route-runner, how slippery he is to put a hand on that punt return ability he displays with the ball in his hands, with the feel for where defenders are coming from. He already made some huge plays as a rookie, often times catching the ball a few yards short of the sticks on shallow crossers and finding a way to convert for his team. Pittsburgh does have Juju Smith-Schuster as the primary target and I believe he will bounce back in a major way, James Washington came onto the scene last season and they also brought in another receiving weapon in flex tight-end Eric Ebron to go with another second-rounder receiver. However, I think Johnson could easily be one of the more productive number two guys for his respective team and at the very least a nice matchup play for your flex spot. Even if he somehow ended up repeating his output from a year ago, he was still the WR39 in PPR formats. If you take that as a baseline and think what Big Ben could do for him, just putting the ball out in front on some double-moves, that could be a great pick in the double-digit rounds, especially considering he led all receivers in separation, according to Next Gen Stats.
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Other options I like:
Darius Slayton (ADP – 128.30; WR45)
Mecole Hardman (ADP – 130.83; WR45)
Jalen Reagor (ADP – 142.32; WR53)
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https://preview.redd.it/bk77o09eh5k51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=c2c8fdc08ec8366b7397bb45e4e942309c302291
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Tight-ends:

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Hayden Hurst
ADP – 124.06 (TE13)
If I could only choose to tell you about one player in this entire breakdown, this might be my guy. The Falcons just lost Austin Hooper to free agency, after he put up career-highs in targets (97), receptions (75), yards (787) and touchdowns (6). Because of that they spent a second-round pick to acquire what basically was the Ravens’ TE3. That alone tells you how much they wanted him, since they could have used that selection in the draft to address some other areas of need or grab another one in the draft, since only one was off the board at that point. Not saying he isn’t worth it, but that is rare compensation for a player who is third on a team’s depth chart and has barely cracked 500 receiving yards to go with three touchdowns through his first two years in the league. With that being said, Hurst is a former first-round pick and someone who Baltimore actually selected ahead of reigning league MVP Lamar Jackson. The speed, feel as a route-runner and physicality after the catch put the former South Carolina standout at the top of my tight-end board as well and I’m guessing that’s where the Falcons had him too, So based on pure talent, you can argue that he and Hooper are basically at the same level. What makes this guy so intriguing as a value pick for me is the offense he has landed in. Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter is famous for heavily involving the TE as a volume pass-catcher on stick and hook routes underneath, but also allowing them to work down the seams, where Matt Ryan had a lot of confidence, putting the ball to the back-shoulder of Hooper, who could shield it with his body and come down with the catch. When you look at the target rate of these two guys, the difference is enormous, as Hooper averaged 7.5 looks per game compared to only 2.4 for Hurst in his second season, while the latter averaged almost a full yard more per target. I love this guy as a low-end TE1 as my 13th pick or so of the draft.
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Jonnu Smith
ADP – 147.77 (TE21)
While I know it isn’t overly exciting, purely based on receiving yards, finishing 18th at your own position would make me think you get drafted higher than 21rd, but that is the most simplistic and least interesting case for Jonnu Smith. Let me talk you through a couple of other things instead. Of just 45 targets over the 2019 regular season, Smith caught 35 of them for 439 yards and three touchdowns. That left him tied for ninth among all players in the league at 10.0 yards per target and his 8.3 yards after the catch on average was the second-highest number among tight-ends, behind only George Kittle, who is obviously in a different stratosphere. While Tennessee is trying to run it back with a strong offensive line and a battering ram in Derrick Henry behind it, to go with shots off play-action, the Titans last season were 30th in plays run and they had the third-lowest percentage of pass plays (51.2). Those numbers are likely to go up at least a little bit with a more capable passer in Ryan Tannehill being under center for a full season and opposing teams likely selling out to stop the run. So that should result in more opportunities for Smith, who despite seeing a low target share, finished seventh in yards per route run among TEs last season. If you combine his targets with the ones of Delanie Walker until he got hurt, who is now out of the picture for Tennessee, that lands him at 75, which – while I know it doesn’t quite work that way – would result in 732 yards and five TDs if you simply multiply it with the numbers he actually put up on 45 looks. This guy is close to undrafted in a lot of leagues and with the way he started being used down the stretch – streaking downfield more and even taking some handoffs for big gains as a true running back – that gives you a high-upside TE2. Please take him over a second defense or whatever you may think of at that point of your drafts.
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Jack Doyle
ADP – 148.51 (TE23)
This is a name that I seem to have a weird fantasy crush on, but when you really look into it, it makes some sense. Doyle may not blow you away statistically, never having reached the 700-yard mark or surpassed five touchdowns in his seven-year career, but he is a very good all-around player, who is on the field all the time. We all remember when Eric Ebron went off for 750 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2018, but a lot of that was thanks to Doyle going down with an injury, since he had been on the field for 81.7 percent of the snaps as long as he was healthy, When he put up career-highs the year prior, he logged over 90 percent of the snaps, and while he wasn’t as effective last season as a full-time starter, he did average over 10 yards per catch and converted two thirds of his catches into first downs. That was with Ebron on the roster and being more of a downfield target, while Doyle was responsible for the dirty-work in the run game and even as a pass-protector. Now, I know the Colts signed Trey Burton this offseason, but he had just 84 receiving yards and no TDs over the one half of 2019 he was available for and should be much less likely to steal targets from what I think is the clear TE1 in this offense still. While yards per target, yards per route run and all those statistics are great to predict what can happen, the one relevant fantasy factor before anything else is how much a player is on the field and I don’t see why Doyle wouldn’t be out there for 80 percent of their offensive plays again. Indianapolis was in 12 personnel 26 percent of the snaps last season (sixth-highest in the league), so even if Burton re-emerges to some degree, this should hold true. And with Philip Rivers coming in, who checked it down to his backs more than any other QB in the league last season, I could see some of that share to going to Doyle leaking out late or curling up over the middle.
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Other options I like:
Mike Gesicki (ADP – 137.23; TE15)
Blake Jarwin (ADP – 150.07; TE23)
Chris Herndon (ADP – 150.37; TE25)
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Defenses in the comments!
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If you enjoyed this content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/08/26/fantasy-diamonds-for-2020/
You can also listen to my breakdown on Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXmJv442hvg&lc=UgxNqkHDOD0Sd5qIGVp4AaABAg&feature=em-comments
submitted by hallach_halil to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

NFL DFS (Saturday 3 Game Slate) Breakdown! << Vegas, OLine vs. DLine, Custom Models, Pass Pro Ranks and Favorite Plays! >>

NFL Saturday Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
Article Link (incase you want to see the actual NFL Cheatsheet screen shots added to the article): https://www.cheatsheetpros.com/post/nfl-saturday-slate-breakdown
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QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Welcome to Week 16 everyone and the start of the NBA season! I’ve been hard at work putting in 6+ hours a day on the NBA sheet. I wanted to take a break and hit on some NFL games because I love the “research” aspect of fantasy. So let’s go ahead and dive in!
GAME BY GAME BREAKDOWN:
GAME #1
Tampa Bay (-9.5) vs. Detroit
VEGAS SIDE: Line opened at -7.5 and moved to -9.5.
VEGAS TOTAL: Line opened at 49 and skyrocketed up to 54.
Our Model: We have Tampa Bay winning this game 34-25 with 59 total points. So we are close to the Vegas spread so prefer the game teased down and we like to go over the total.
QB Protection: Tampa is #2 in QB protection and DET is 28th in QB pressure so Brady will have all day to pick apart the defense. DET is 20th in QB protection and Tampa is 4th in QB pressure rate so expect some sacks for the Bucs defense this week.
Trenches Breakdown: Tampa has the 12th best O-Line facing the 31st D-Line so there will be running room for the Bucs RBs. DET is also 25th in allowing runs of 5-10 yards so they will give up some chunk plays. DET sits at 19th in it’s O-Line ranking and Tampa ranks 2th, 1st and 1st and in D-Line and then allowing explosive runs. This would point to an “unlikely” big day on the ground for Swift.
DFS PLAYERS:
Tampa Bay has been solid against the run with the #1 rush “D” and only allowing 77.8 RY per game so I will be lower than the field on D’Andre Swift. DET has been terrible defensively ranking dead last in the NFL and allowing a massive 137.3 rushing yards per game and 264.1 passing yards per game and those rank 29th and 27th. All of the Tampa Bay players are in play with a total of 54 and being a heavy favorite. Tom Brady is the 2nd priced QB at 6800 so we are looking for 21-28 DKP for value and over the last 5 games he has highs of 35 and 27 and lows of 15 and 16. He should toss for 300 and a couple TDs giving him a high floor. If you fade Tom Brady then I like taking a RB here. Tampa WILL SCORE points so get a piece of them in your lineups as there are only 3 games to choose from.
I don’t love any specific WR from Tampa since Tom Brady spreads it out so much. All 3 guys have 10-20 DKPs and NONE of them have broke 21 DK points since Chris Godwin did in Week 7 with 23.8. They all have high floors but low ceilings in this offense with so many weapons.
On the Lions side Marvin Jones Jr. is only 4900 and has been on fire with no Kenny Golladay. Marvin Jones Jr. has put up 30, 9 and 29 in the last 3 games and has led the team in targets with 13, 9, 12 and 13 over the last 4 weeks. T.J. Hockenson is only 4600 which shocked me on this small slate and he is second in targets with 4, 13, 9 and 8 over the last 4 weeks. With the exception of last week Hockenson has put up 10-17 DKPs in 4 straight weeks. Danny Amendola and Mohamed Sanu are GPP punt only options at 3700 and 3000. Usually one of those two will catch a few balls and rack up some yards but they have very low ceilings. If you can load up your favorite line I don’t mind mixing them into a flex spot as a punt in large fields. Definitely do not use them in cash. If Matthew Stafford can’t go I’m still playing Marvin Jones and Hockenson as Chase Daniel is an acceptable backup and a fun QB punt at 4900.
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GAME #2
Arizona (-5) over San Francisco
VEGAS SIDE: Line opened ‘Zona -3 and now -5.
VEGAS TOTAL: Line opened at 49 and still 49.
Our Model: We have Arizona winning a close game 25-23 and our projected total is really close to the Vegas line.
QB Protection: San Fran is 8th in QB protection and ARI is 11th in QB pressure. ARI is 7th in QB protection and SF is 25th in QB pressure. This is good for Kyler Murray and having some time in the pocket. SF is neutral.
Trenches Breakdown: There is an advantage for both defenses. SF has the 25th O-Line and ARI is 26th. SF has been solid at stopping explosive run plays as they rank 5th and 7th in that category, but it’s not like Drake is breaking off 50 yard runs every game. ARI does allow chunk plays of 5-10 yards aas they rank 27th in that category so there could be some chunk plays by Jeff Wilson Jr.
DFS PLAYERS:
ARI will have their work cut out for them as SF ranks 10th in total “D” and they are allowing the 7th least rushing yards per game and 4th least passing yards per game. SF ranks 5th vs. the WR-1 so if you are fading a DeAndre Hopkins play then I’d look at Chase Edmonds as he is 2nd on the team in targets over the last 4 weeks with 6, 5, 6 and 5. Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald and KeeSean Johnson are seeing only 2-4 targets a game and should only be used in large field GPPs. DeAndre Hopkins should be able to avoid Richard Sherman the majority of the time as he runs 84% of routes on the left side and 61% of the time Witherspoon is on that side. Richard Sherman primarily stays on his side of the field for 84% of snaps. Hopkins has 11, 11, 14, 7, 10 and 11 targets over recent weeks. He is getting twice as many looks as any other ARI pass catcher.
Kyler Murray is a straight up stud with a monster ceiling and I expect he will be high owned after his big game last week. He put up 38.1 DKPs and that is 5x his current salary. I like Murray because he has a safe floor for cash games and over the last 7 weeks he has highs of 38, 31 and 42 DKPs. Kenyan Drake is cheap enough at 5200 to give you some wiggle room and has been decent as of late. He has put up 16, 14, 24, 16 and 14 before last week so basically hitting around 3x.
Jeff Wilson Jr. looks like he may be the primary back with Mostert done for the season. When we have seen Mostert go out it was Jeff Wilson that took the majority of snaps, carries and touches. With 12 targets over the last 3 games I’d also like to point out that ARI is 25th vs. pass catching RBs. Brandon Aiyuk is almost a lock for me right now with 30 TARGETS over the last 2 games and 3 straight games over 20 DKPS (22.3, 24.9 and 20.5). Don’t forget my punt TE from the article last week with Dan Arnold (3200) who has put up 8.4, 10.7 and 20.1 DKP over the last 3 weeks. The low 8.4 last week was still around 2.5x value and the 20 DKP is over 6x value.
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GAME #3
Miami (-3) over Las Vegas
VEGAS SIDE: Line opened Miami +2 and now -3.
VEGAS TOTAL: Line opened at 48 and now at 47.5.
Our Model: We have a massive 57 points being scored in this game with Las Vegas winning 30-27. Now keep in mind our model does not account for Derek Carr possibly not playing so take this with a grain of salt.
QB Protection: Las Vegas side is a neutral as they are 9th in protection facing a team that is 9th in pressure. Miami is 21st in pass protection and Las Vegas is a horrible 30th in QB pressure so Tua will have time to throw.
Trenches Breakdown: No clear advantage on either side. Miami ranks 21st, 28th and 27th and facing a team that is 25th, 28th and 30th in Line, runs of 5-10 yards and runs of 10+ yards. Vegas is in the same spot ranking 17th, 20th and 22nd and facing a team that is 15th, 22nd and 14th. Nothing popping to me right now.
DFS PLAYERS:
Las Vegas gives up the 25th most rush yards per game at 125.8 and the 26th most passing yards per game at 259.6 so Miami should be able to move the ball. I’m sure that is leaning to the 5 point Vegas line move. Myles Gaskin was activated for this week but his role at this time is unknown. At 5300 he is worth a shot as his first game back last time he took 21 carries and 2 targets right out of the gate so not worried about his production. Mike Gesicki looks doubtful to return but if he does keep in mind that Tua loves targeting this guy! Gesicki had 23.5 and 23.8 DKP in back to back games. If he can’t go them Durham Smythe is a cheap punt at 2800 and put up 9 DKP last week.
Miami has the 5th best passing defense but they are 24th vs the run. Miami is also giving up a high 4.6 yards per carry while they are sticklers when the opponents get into the red zone allowing only a 56.4% TD rate which ranks 25th in the NFL. Darren Waller is a whopping 7000 and Miami ranks 27th vs. the TE. Waller put up 33 last week and then 14.5 and 48 DKP the prior two weeks so he has a high ceiling. Everyone else on the Raiders is CHEAP so I don’t mind them. Nelson Agholor is only 4500, Hunter Renfroe is 3300 and if Henry Ruggs can go he is 4000.
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BREAKDOWN OF MY FAVORITE PLAYERS:
QB – Kyler Murray, Tom Brady (GPP)
RB – Myles Gaskin, Jeff Wilson Jr., Leonard Fournette or Ronald Jones (GPP).
WR – DeAndre Hopkins, Marvin Jones, Brandon Aiyuk, Nelson Agholor (GPP)
TE – Darren Waller, Dan Arnold, Mike Gesicki, Durham Smythe (GPP), Jordan Reed
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DEF BREAKDOWN:
Lions / Raiders – Will likely score 0 or negative points so don’t use them and at least find a way to get up to the 49’ers at 2700.
San Francisco (2700) – Should be easy to at least get to 2700 if you don’t want to spend up and prior to last week they had 8, 2 and 17 points.
Arizona (3300) – If you can afford a little bit more money I like ‘Zona this week and they have 10, 18, 2 and 8 over the last 4 weeks.
Tampa Bay (3800) – They are expensive for a D but playing a DET team that might be without Stafford. They have only put up 3, 9, 4 and 4 over the last 4 weeks so I would prefer them in GPP only. Low risk of them putting up 0 or negative so they are safe.
Miami (4000) – If you want to look at Tampa then you can afford the Dolphins for another 200 bucks. They have put up 9, 10, 14 and 14 over the last 4 weeks and that includes facing a touch KC team. They are the best bet for 3x value.
HOW I AM BUILDING MY SATURDAY LINES:
I’m starting with Kyler Murray + DeAndre Hopkins as I want the best studs in my line. I’m going to Brandon Aiyuk as my WR-2 as he is getting a massive amount of targets and a top pass catching option. TE I know I won’t be able to afford Waller except for some GPP builds so I’m going down to Jordan Reed at 2900. I’m plugging in the Dolphins defense at 4K and then will pivot down if I need to tinker with another spot. My RBs I’m going down from Josh Jacobs and Swift to Jeff Wilson Jr. and Myles Gaskin at a respectable 5,300 and 5,000. That leaves you 10,300 to fill a WR-3 and FLEX spot. I’m running this line 10 times and mixing and matching the WR-3, FLEX and TE spots with the salaries left over.
Thanks for reading,
Haze
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Preparing for the worst - List of all notable WR trades in the past 3 years.

It's unfortunate that I'm typing this, but if this is how it ends, it's valuable to know the possible return were we to trade Allen Robinson.
The first thing to realize is his contract history. A lot of people don't take this into account when trades happen and are then baffled by how a player is or is not worth whatever they were traded for. When a player is traded, so is their contract.
Allen Robinson signed a 3 year $42 million contract with the Bears back in 2018. His cap hit this year is $15M, compared to $11.8 and $16 his first two seasons with us. All in all, this was a ridiculous bargain deal for us in terms of APY, considering Robinson is a borderline top 10 receiver in the league. Hell, Sammy Watkins' contract with the Rams in 2018 was worth more. People were expecting an extension this past offseason considering his contract ends this year, but obviously he has not yet received one and we are now in Week 2 of the regular season. But anyways, here's the list of recent WR trades, featuring their cap hit that year in parentheses.
April 25, 2020
Eagles acquire: Marquise Goodwin ($4.3m), 2020 6th
Rams acquire: 2020 6th
April 9, 2020
Vikings acquire: 2021 4th round pick, 2020 1st, 2020 5th, 2020 6th
Bills acquire: Stefon Diggs ($11.5m), 2020 7th
March 16, 2020
Cardinals acquire: DeAndre Hopkins ($12.5m), 2020 4th
Texans acquire: David Johnson ($11.1m), 2020 2nd, 2021 4th
October 22, 2019
49ers acquire: Emmanuel Sanders ($6.0m), 2020 5th round pick
Broncos acquire: 2020 3rd, 2020 4th
October 22, 2019
Patriots acquire: Mohamed Sanu ($3.8m)
Falcons acquire: 2020 2nd
March 13, 2019
Browns acquire: Odell Beckham Jr. ($17.0m), Olivier Vernon ($15.5m)
Giants acquire: Jabrill Peppers ($1.4m), Kevin Zeitler ($10.0m), 2019 1st, 2019 3rd
October 30, 2018
Eagles acquire: Golden Tate ($3.7m)
Lions acquire: 2019 3rd
E: October 22, 2018
Cowboys acquire: Amari Cooper ($411k)
Raiders acquire: 2020 1st
E: April 3, 2018
Rams acquire: Brandin Cooks ($8.5m), 2018 4th
Patriots acquire: 2018 1st, 2018 6th
E: March 9, 2018
Browns acquire: Jarvis Landry ($15.9m)
Dolphins acquire: 2018 4th, 2019 7th
E: March 10, 2017
Patriots acquire: Brandin Cooks ($1.5m), 2017 4th
Saints acquire: 2017 1st, 2017 3rd
Let's look at some examples here. Considering Mohamed Sanu was flipped for a 2nd and Tate and Sanders were each traded for around a 3rd, it's clear that ARob is worth much more.
The most prominent and relevant trade here is the Diggs trade. Diggs and Robinson are both young (26 and 27, respectively), paid similarly ($12m vs $15m), and of a similar level of skill and value to the team, more so for Robinson in my opinion. Considering Diggs was flipped for a 1st, 4th, 5th, and 6th, I would be disappointed in seeing anything short of a 1st or 2nd in return for AR12, considering his contract situation vs Diggs' at the time of his trade. Thoughts?
Edit: Another notable trade was Amari Cooper, who was also at the end of his rookie deal and looking to get paid. The Cowboys decided to pay up a 1st round pick for him and immediately gave him a large contract. This situation may be more similar, but considering Jerruh was the one who pulled the trigger it may be tough to compare it to anything.
submitted by g0dzilllla to CHIBears [link] [comments]

NFL Week 1 - DraftKings

Football. Is. Back. I really hope this season can go off without a hitch! Whatever your feelings are on the COVID-19 outbreak, I think we can all agree that football being back will be a great step towards the way things were in what I call B.C. - before corona.
What a slate Week 1 is offering up! Let's check out the games and figure out some mismatches we can exploit:
GB @ MIN (1:00)
I've got my eyes on both Dalvin Cook ($7,900) and Aaron Jones ($6,900), who should both see plenty of touches and have had success in this divisional matchup in the past. I'm particularly interested in slotting in Jones to save the $1,000 in cap space, even with Green Bay drafting AJ Dillon ($4,400) in the second round of this past draft. Jones may lose a few goal-line opportunities here and there to give Dillon some work, but I don't see the Packers shying away from Jones continuing to hold workhorse duties for the time being.
Both Aaron Rodgers ($6,300) and Kirk Cousins ($5,700) come in fairly cheap as far as QBs go on this slate, but I'm not fond of either play. If I had to choose one it'd be Cousins honestly - I'm nervous for Rodgers and that beefy Vikings pass rush that just added Yannick Ngakoue to the mix - not to mention the overall quality of the defense behind them.
Davante Adams ($7,300) and Adam Thielen ($6,700) are fairly priced, all things considered. Both should see a fair amount of targets, with an obvious nod to Davante here as a clear WR1 in an offense that engineered by an improvising wizard under center. If Rodgers does well and can handle the pressure sent his way, Adams will explode. Allen Lazard ($4,900) has made strides but overall that Packers' receiving corps is thin, so who else is going to see targets? Robert Tonyan ($2,500)? Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,600)? Yeah.. I don't think so. Even if Green Bay struggles hard, Adams' projected volume alone is enough to justify rostering him.
I'm not too high on many other receiving options for either team here. Lazard could be a decent value option but he's not my favorite by any means. You could go with Kyle Rudolph ($3,700) or Irv Smith Jr. ($3,100), but it's hard to know whether the latter will truly be more involved right out of the gate like reports are indicating. Olabisi Johnson ($4,100) represents some value as a WR2 behind Thielen now that Stefon Diggs ($6,400) is suiting up for the Buffalo Bills. Not super high on him but worth plugging into a few lineups. If I had to choose a defense between the two, I'd go with the Vikings ($2,500), as they could very well notch multiple sacks per week with their bolstered front seven, which at the very least gives them a solid floor.
MIA @ NE (1:00)
Ton of value. The most expensive skill position players, tied at $6,000, are James White, Julian Edelman and DeVante Parker (undisclosed). I'm actually pretty fond of Sony Michel ($4,600) and Preston Williams ($4,500) as value options. Excellent price points for the production they'll likely put out. Michel rushed for a TD in both games against the Dolphins last season, and while the New England backfield is crowded now, Michel will likely still see early down work - though I understand hesitation in playing any Patriots' RB knowing who their head coach is (the GOAT, that's who). Williams as Miami's WR2 with Parker likely not 100% and Miami having an overall lack of receiving depth signals Williams as an obvious option, even against a strong Patriots' secondary.
With Cam Newton ($6,100) being named starter, all eyes are on him to shine with his new team following an unceremonious end to his time with the Carolina Panthers. He doesn't have a whole lot of help around him, but Miami represents a nice matchup to get Newton on the right track. Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,300) is honestly not a terrible option considering Miami's not necessarily known for running the ball down opponents' throats, and he was able to throw for over 300 yards and a touchdown (while running for one as well) against New England last season in a 27-24 Week 17 win. Obviously Tua Tagovailoa ($5,200) will likely supplant the veteran journeyman at some point this season, but might as well get some vintage Fitzmagic while we can.
I could see Jordan Howard ($5,100) having a strong Week 1, as New England is typically worse against the run and Howard has always been fairly capable during his NFL tenure. I'm not necessarily expecting 100+ yards out of him but he's the obvious goal-line option over Matt Breida ($5,000) who is a far better option than Patrick Laird ($4,000) was down the stretch for Miami last year.
Edelman's an obvious play based on volume, particularly after the recent release of Mohamed Sanu, but N'Keal Harry ($4,400) stands to benefit greatly as a red zone threat. Hard not to like him here in a good matchup with mostly unproven options behind him other than maybe Jakobi Meyers ($3,500). Other than that, I'd say Mike Gesicki ($4,500) is a fine option for similar reasons to Williams above. Could take a flier on any of Jakeem Grant ($3,900), Isaiah Ford ($3,700), or the New England rookie tight ends Devin Asiasi ($3,500, foot/ankle) and Dalton Keene ($3,000), but they're all punts at best. The Patriots' defense ($3,200) is a solid play, especially if you're of a mind that the defense will suffocate the likes of Fitzpatrick like they did back in Week 2 last season in a crushing 43-0 (they notched four INTs, seven sacks and two defensive TDs for a whopping 37 DKP compared to the 2 DKP in Week 17 against the same team).
CHI @ DET (1:00)
I like both Allen Robinson II ($6,500) and Anthony Miller ($5,000) in this matchup. I'm not confident that Jimmy Graham ($3,800) will be a consistent option for Mitchell Trubisky ($5,400), but Miller has shown a lot of promise out of the slot for Chicago and I expect him to continue to see plenty of targets as long as he's healthy. I actually like Trubisky far more for this slate than I do Matthew Stafford ($6,200). While I typically dub him "Trubunsky", he actually provided some great value against the Lions last season and should do so again with the lack of rushing options they have (I expect them to sign either Devonta Freeman or Adrian Peterson before the end of the weekend). UPDATE - Ironically, the Lions signed the latter.
You could get one of either Tarik Cohen ($4,900) or Kerryon Johnson ($4,400) for great value considering their projected work loads in this game. I like Cohen a bit more as right now, it looks like David Montgomery ($5,900, groin) could miss Week 1 and Cohen has more value given his pass-catching ability. De'Andre Swift ($4,900, undisclosed) will likely play but may not see a huge workload out of the gate with him missing as much practice as he did.
Kenny Golladay ($6,200) caught 7/14 passes for over 200 yards and 2 TDs against the Bears last season across both games. As the clear WR1 for Detroit, he's serviceable given Stafford's arm. Not the best matchup in the world, but that may make some DFS players shy away which makes him less owned on the slate.
Other options/fliers include T.J. Hockenson ($4,200), Marvin Hall ($3,900), Cordarrelle Patterson ($3,400), Cole Kmet ($3,400) and Quintez Cephus ($3,300), with the latter four being practical punt plays.
SEA @ ATL (1:00)
My favorite matchup of the slate. Should be high-flying. Lots of players that could really make or break the slate. Julio Jones ($7,700) is an obvious option to build around, but don't balk at Calvin Ridley ($6,100) either despite his price tag. Hayden Hurst ($4,300) isn't a bad TE/flex option with Seattle not being that fantastic against tight ends (they ranked 29th against them last season), and with Austin Hooper gone to Clevrland, Hurst has a path to heavy snaps. Not very high on Todd Gurley ($6,100), but he's absolutely far from being the worst play you could make.
For Seattle, either of Tyler Lockett ($6,500) or DK Metcalf ($5,800) could explode against the Atlanta secondary, with Chris Carson ($6,200) likely to see a heavy workload with the myriad of injuries to the depth of the Seattle backfield. I like any of the three as regular plugs in lineups this week.
Not too big a fan of playing either quarterback, as Russell Wilson ($7,000) and Matt Ryan ($6,700) both cost a bit. I'd probably rather play Ryan as I believe the Atlanta rush attack led by Todd Gurley ($6,100) isn't going to be the focal point of their offense, plus that extra $300 you save can make a difference for another player in your lineup.
PHI @ WAS (1:00)
Love both Zach Ertz ($5,800) and Dallas Goedert ($4,100) as two of the limited healthy options for Philly in the passing game. DeSean Jackson ($4,900) is also solid considering he lit up the stat sheet against Washington in last year's Week 1 game, and QB Carson Wentz ($6,300, lower body) doesn't have a few of his top options to throw to.. which could be a big benefit to DJax.
Greg Ward ($4,200) and JJ Arcega-Whiteside ($3,900) are viable options. I'd prefer Ward over JJAW myself given Ward's more proven track record in games.
I'm skeptical about Miles Sanders ($6,300, lower body) getting a full workload against Washington. I'd think if this game gets out of hand, they rest Sanders a bit/give him less than any snap count he may be on. In that scenario, Boston Scott ($4,800) makes more sense at $1,500 less and someone who's likely to put the ball in the end zone.
For the Football Team (damn that's just so weird to say), Terry McLaurin ($5,600) and Steven Sims Jr. ($4,700) are the obvious plays. With the lack of an established running game at the NFL level due to the loss of Chris Thompson (JAX), Derrius Guice (released) and Adrian Peterson (released), these two will be heavily relied on. Antonio Gibson ($4,000) is likely going to see the most work for Washington RBs, though J.D. McKissic ($4,000) could see heavy passing down work.
Dwayne Haskins ($5,000) is likely the best value option at QB because of the state of the Football Team's running game being so inexperienced. Not HUGE on Wentz but he's also solid IF the game stays close enough to warrant throwing enough.
Value across the board from this game so keep it on your radar.
IND @ JAX (1:00)
Outside of DJ Chark Jr. ($6,300), I'm not confident in making a play on any Jags' WR because there are a lot of mouths to feed between Dede Westbrook ($4,600, shoulder), Laviska Shenault Jr. ($4,400, injury), Chris Conley ($4,000), Keelan Cole ($3,800) and Tyler Eifert ($3,300). With the release of Leonard Fournette, I'm confident Chark is peppered with targets. Chris Thompson ($4,000) should see plenty of work now with Ryquell Armstead ($4,000, COVID-19) unavailable.
For the Colts, T.Y. Hilton ($5,800) is similar to Chark and that he's bound to see plenty of targets as the established WR1. Even with Jonathan Taylor ($5,700) in the mix, I'm liking Marlon Mack ($5,300) considering the matchup and the likelihood of the running game being a focal point for the Colts throughout the season (despite Philip Rivers [$6,000] coming in the offseason). Jack Doyle ($3,600, neck) should be a focal point as well with Trey Burton ($3,000, calf) likely to miss a few games to start the year. Take a flier on Michael Pittman Jr. ($4,400) and Zach Pascal ($4,200) if you'd like but I'm not high on either until I know how the work will be divided.
Consider Gardner Minshew II ($5,800) as he'll likely need to pass often, similar to Haskins with Washington. Rivers could be serviceable but I feel the Colts will run often so I'm holding back on him Week 1 and waiting to see how he does.
CLE @ BAL (1:00)
If the Browns want to sneak away from Baltimore with a win, they'll need to utilize the services of Nick Chubb ($6,500), who rushed for 165 yards and 3 TDs in Week 4 last year against the Ravens. I don't expect a HUGE game out of him, but Chubb will be an essential part of the Browns' offense, even with the presence of Kareem Hunt ($5,100).
I also think that Odell Beckham Jr. ($5,900) and Jarvis Landry ($5,900) will have see a steady flow of targets, as well as Austin Hooper ($5,100). The member of the trio I like the best is Landry, who's seen success against the Ravens (15 catches for over 225 yards last season).
For the Ravens, Mark Andrews ($6,000) is hard to ignore. He caught 10 passes for almost 150 yards and 3 TDs against the Browns last year, and outside of Andrews and Marquise Brown ($5,100), there aren't any reliable options in the Ravens' passing game. While this offense isn't geared to do all of their damage through the air, there's a possibility that one or both of the aforementioned receivers can get a good day in (I'm much higher on Andrews).
The Ravens' backfield is crowded, but Mark Ingram ($5,500) is still a viable option considering he sees the most touches outside of QB Lamar Jackson ($8,100) himself. Not the greatest play at RB based on volume, but should be respectable enough if the Ravens get ahead early. To a lesser extent, second-rounder J.K. Dobbins ($5,000) should see some carries in a Gus Edwards-type role.
Not really high on anyone else from this game honestly. Could take a chance on David Njoku ($3,600) in his backup TE role, but everyone else is a huge punt.
NYJ @ BUF (1:00)
With Stefon Diggs ($6,400) now a Bill, it makes the outlook for him and John Brown ($5,600) a bit iffy. The Jets aren't exactly hard to throw on, but the question of which receiver to play remains up in the air. Either could explode or see 1-2 targets depending on game script. The presence of both will eat into targets for Cole Beasley ($4,800), but I still think the slot wideout could be a solid play for Buffalo given the likelihood that Josh Allen ($6,500) will hit Beasley on plenty of short routes. I'm a bit worried about Devin Singletary ($5,400) just because of the presence of Zack Moss ($4,400) could lessen the goal-line opportunities for the former.
With the lack of receiving options for the Jets outside of Jamison Crowder ($5,200, leg), I actually like LeVeon Bell ($5,600) a fair amount despite a tough matchup. If he can see enough targets out of the backup, his floor will be fairly high. He's a bit expensive, but I think the work he sees will give him a safe floor with a chance for a solid outing if he sees the end zone. Frank Gore ($4,000) may see some reps at the goal line and is worth a flier as a deep punt.
As far as receivers go, I like Crowder a lot, but could also see rookie Denzel Mims ($4,300, hamstring) playing a vital role with guys like Vyncint Smith (core) and Breshad Perriman (knee) unavailable (the latter still has a shot to play Week 1 but hasn't been at practice since Aug. 23rd). Could take a flier on Chris Herndon ($3,300) as well with him taking over TE1 duties from Ryan Griffin ($3,400).
I'd play Allen in lineups, but am not considering Sam Darnold ($5,500). A thin receiving corps, even with a better offensive line, doesn't translate well in DFS for QBs. I would be surprised if he scored 18+ DKP.
LV @ CAR (1:00)
The receivers I love in this matchup include D.J. Moore ($6,600), Darren Waller ($5,900), Henry Ruggs III ($5,100), Robby Anderson ($4,700) and Hunter Renfrow ($4,500). With Tyrell Williams (torn labrum) out for the year, Waller and Renfrow in particular will see themselves utilizing similar roles to last year. Anderson will be a stud go-route guy for the Panthers and their new QB Teddy Bridgewater ($5,900), who I think will make a fine play for a cheaper QB on the slate.
Christian McCaffrey ($10,000) is a lot of money to pay and is expected to have his snap count reduced this season. I LOVE him as a player but will hold off on DFS to see how his role looks this year.
Josh Jacobs ($6,800) is a good chunk of money, but someone I like for this week. Jalen Richard ($4,700) may see some passing-down work but overall, Jacobs is a much better shot to see paydirt.
LAC @ CIN (4:05)
Austin Ekeler ($7,000) and Keenan Allen ($6,400) should be solid borderline-locks as they're by far going to see the most work under new QB Tyrod Taylor ($5,600). Behind them, Hunter Henry ($5,300) is solid while Joe Reed ($3,900) could see some targets as Mike Williams (shoulder) may miss most September. Jalen Guyton ($3,000) may start as an outside receiver opposite Allen until Williams returns, so there's some fantasy relevance there. Other than that, Virgil Green ($2,800) could see a few targets with so few options in the passing game.
For the Bengals, Tyler Boyd ($6,100) is hard not to trust, even with A.J. Green ($5,700) back in the fold. Joe Mixon ($6,700, migraines) has missed practice lately but is expected to be ready for Week 1. In the event he misses the opener, Giovani Bernard ($4,400) becomes a chalky value play.
John Ross III ($4,200, arm) might be worth a flier assuming he gets work as a third WR over Auden Tate ($3,800) and rookie Tee Higgins ($4,400). I'm not a fan of playing any of the three unless an injury occurs or I can better evaluate how playing time is spread out. Joe Burrow ($5,800) is in play as a value option, though without a preseason to adjust to NFL defenses, I'm wondering how his transition will go.
TB @ NO (4:25)
This will easily be the most fun game to watch from a DFS perspective, with a lot of pay-up options. You could go any which way here, between Michael Thomas ($9,000) and Emmanuel Sanders ($5,700) as well as Chris Godwin ($7,100) and Mike Evans ($6,900). I'd avoid Tampa Bay running backs altogether will the offseason acquisitions of LeSean McCoy ($4,100) and Leonard Fournette ($6,000) muddying up the amount of work everyone else will get.
Alvin Kamara ($7,200) looks like he'll stay with the Saints despite contract negotiations seeming to be a bit off. He's a good play who, albeit expensive and against a strong Buccaneers' front, should see enough targets out of the backfield to do some damage in DFS.
Hard to gauge how either Rob Gronkowski ($4,900) or O.J. Howard ($3,700) will do in a loaded offense, but I do like Scotty Miller ($4,000) as a dart throw for a WR3/Flex option given his come-uppance in training camp and his building rapport with Tom Brady ($6,500). As far as the Saints go, Jared Cook ($5,500) could still see a solid role in the offense but his price tag is fairly high for me. I don't see Tre'Quan Smith ($4,000) being any more relevant than he was last year either. If you're not Kamara or MT, your role absolutely fluctates from week to week in New Orleans.
ARI @ SF (4:25)
I'm intrigued for this game, particularly in how the new-look Arizona Cardinals will do. De'Andre Hopkins ($6,800, hamstring) should play Week 1 and be a top target for Kyler Murray ($6,400). I do like Larry Fitzgerald ($4,800) in this matchup, but I'm not as high on Christian Kirk ($5,000). Kenyan Drake ($6,400, foot) is going to see all the work he can handle as he'll be limited throughout practices to keep him fresh - though he's up against a tough front. As a flier, Dan Arnold ($3,500) should have an opportunity to be a sneaky TE play throughout the season as a strong vertical threat.
The 49ers obviously have a stud TE in George Kittle ($7,200), and he's who you want to play to attack the Cardinals' weak point. I wonder whether Jordan Reed ($3,000) will see enough usage to warrant taking a chance on in DFS.
Deebo Samuel ($5,300, foot) appears on track to play Week 1, and overall I like him in this spot. Not my favorite play, but not a bad one. Kendrick Bourne ($5,000) was a solid red zone threat last season (6 TDs on 36 catches), and with Jalen Hurd (torn ACL, out for the year) and Brandon Aiyuk (hamstring) injured, I'm still high on him.
Really love the majority of this slate. It'll be a fun Week 1!
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Defending the Draft: New England Patriots

Preface
Going into the 2019 season, the Patriots held very high expectations. The defense that had just shut down the high-powered 2018 Rams offense had arguably gotten better. Although the offense had lost Rob Gronkowski, the addition of first-round WR N’Keal Harry and free agent Demaryius Thomas seemed to at least keep their offensive options. Combining this with Sony Michel coming off a successful rookie campaign and 4 of 5 starters of a strong offensive line, with Trent Brown being replaced by 2018 1st round selection Isaiah Wynn, the offensive situation looked optimistic for New England.
As the team progressed through the 2019 preseason and into the season itself, things began to look even better. Although N’Keal Harry injured himself in the first preseason game, the team was eventually informed that Josh Gordon would be reinstated, even being allowed to start Week 1. The defense showed its prowess throughout the preseason, especially against the Lions and Panthers, with the only bad game coming against the Giants, when the Patriots mainly played people at the bottom of the depth chart. To add to New England fans’ excitement, they saw their team sign WR Antonio Brown the night before the team’s debut against the Steelers. As New England embarrassed Brown’s former team 33-3, and then the Dolphins 43-0 it seemed almost inevitable that New England would become the first franchise to win 7 Super Bowls.
However, that was not how the season progressed. Brown couldn’t handle himself even under Belichick’s control, and his decision to threaten the children of one of his accusers of sexual assault found him released from the team. Josh Gordon was injured Week 6 against the Giants, eventually being medically released and later found to have relapsed when he was on the Seahawks. The rest of the offense was riddled with injuries: Julian Edelman had nagging rib injuries, Philip Dorsett hurt his foot early in the year and also sustained a concussion, Mohammed Sanu sustained an ankle injury in his first game, early kick/punt returner Gunner Olsewski was injured in Week 7, Brady himself reportedly struggled with his elbow. The worst effects of injury came against the Offensive Line, as 4 out of the 5 starters sustained some injury, and this is not including the fact that C David Andrews missed the whole season because of pulmonary embolism. The most impactful injury out of this bunch was LT Isaiah Wynn, as the team had to deploy Marshall Newhouse to replace him, a role that Newhouse did not fill adequately, to say the least. Blocking also suffered when FB James Devlin suffered a season ending injury, followed by his backup Jakob Johnson also being put on IR only a few games later. Matt LaCosse and Ben Watson both missed multiple games, forcing the team to only roll with Ryan Izzo at tight end at some times.
These many injuries, as well as a terrible TE corps, not only stunted the passing attack but also crippled the running game. Michel was often met and tackled in the backfield, resulting in a terrible YPC despite being the AFC East’s leading rusher. Despite these offense struggles, the team’s excellent defense performance, in combination with facing many subpar offenses, carried the team to a 12-4 record and the 3rd seed in the AFC. However, the offensive struggles were too great for the team; although the team’s defense held the red-hot Titans offense to 14 points and gave the offense multiple chances to pull ahead, the offense failed to perform when needed, unable to finish drives, even when on Tennessee’s 1-yard line. Sometimes you really do need an offense to win a championship.
Pre-draft
Notable Losses
QB Tom Brady, FA, Buccaneers: The one loss that seemed unthinkable until it really happened. Even though we knew that Brady’s contract voided after this year, many fans thought he was still going to re-sign and finish his career here. However, New England really did not have the cap space to do so and build a satisfactory team around him, causing Brady to decide to sign with the Buccaneers, a team with high offensive potential and has a shot at the super bowl. The Greatest QB of All Time will be missed here in New England, as the team experiences uncertainty at the position for the first time in nearly 20 years.
FB James Devlin, Retirement: When it was announced that it was a neck injury that sidelined Devlin for the rest of the season, his future with the team was in doubt. Once the team signed free agent Dan Vitale, it was almost certain that Devlin would announce his retirement sooner or later. James Devlin was an underrated part of the Pats’ success in the 2010s, where he proved to be a reliable lead blocker, bolstering the effectiveness of New England’s run game. His absence for most of 2019 was palpable as the team consistently struggled establishing a run game, and the Patriots have a tall task of finding an effective replacement for him.
K Stephen Gostkowski, Released: Gostkowski’s departure represented another long-time Patriot staple leaving the team, although the Patriots had started to live without him as his season ended very early due to an injury that required surgery. The Patriots missed Gostkowski’s leg last year, as the team could not reliably score field goals longer than 40 yards, causing the offense to attempt 4th down conversions deep into enemy territory.
LB Kyle Van Noy, FA, Dolphins: One of Belichick’s greatest successes in terms of correctly utilizing players that were previously viewed as ‘busts’ because their coaches could not use them correctly. Van Noy was acquired from the Lions for a measly swap of 6th and 7th picks midway through the 2016 season. Throughout his tenure with the Patriots, especially within the last two seasons, Van Noy became a staple piece in the team’s LB corps with his versatility and great fundamentals. Van Noy now joins his former LB coach Brian Flores in Miami, who will likely maximize Van Noy’s potential.
LB Elendon Roberts, FA, Miami: Elandon Roberts joined his teammate Van Noy in joining Miami to be coached under Brian Flores. Roberts was promoted to captain for his final season in New England, and primarily played most of his defensive snaps as a run-defending thumping linebacker. Roberts also filled in as an emergency FB when both Devlin and Johnson were injured, and played decently well for a third-string FB, I guess. Roberts represents another role that the Patriots had to fill through free agency and the draft.
LB Jamie Collins, FA, Lions: The Patriots added a familiar face in the athletic freak Jamie Collins heading into the 2019 season. Collins’ athleticism allowed him to flash in the early parts of the 2019 season, when he obtained a pick-six at Miami and almost blocked a Bills field goal attempt by broad jumping over the Bills’ line. Like Van Noy, Collins heads to a former Patriots defensive coach in Matt Patricia in Detroit. Unlike the Dolphins, the Lions front office did not watch the second half of the 2019 season, where Collins tended to lose discipline and become a liability in the defense, showing off some of his former issues. I highly doubt Lions fans will think Collins is worth his $10 million APY contract
DT Danny Shelton, FA, Lions: Patriots North scoops up another Patriots player, what a surprise. Going into the 2019 preseason, Shelton seemed like he might be on the outside looking in for the Patriots roster. It looked like other tackles such as Mike Pennel had the ability to replace Shelton. However, Shelton impressed and was able to earn his spot on the team. The nose tackle’s primary role throughout the season was to be a run defender, a role he played quite well. Shelton will help add some strength to a Lions defensive front that played badly last year.
DB Duron Harmon, Traded, Lions: Duron Harmon was a long-time player at the safety position, filling in the role of the third safety while working alongside McCourty and Chung. He earned the nickname of “the closer” due to his performances at the end of matches where he would end the game through obtaining an interception. The Patriots quickly found their replacement for Harmon, most notably adding DB/ST Adrian Phillips, so there really isn’t much worry for him leaving the team.
OL Coach Dante Scarnecchia, Retirement: Arguably the greatest loss that the Patriots suffered outside of Tom Brady, the OL guru has again decided to retire. Scarnecchia is responsible for the Patriots having great offensive lines throughout his tenure and is a sometimes underrated aspect of their wild success. Unlike Scar’s previous retirement in 2014 where he was replaced by Dave DeGuglielmo, both Cole Popovich and Carmen Briscillo have experience being an understudy of Scarnecchia, which will likely help to soften the blow of his retirement. There were also rumors that Scar was still advising New England on scouting the OL position for the draft, so perhaps you can never keep this man away from this team.
Additions, Extensions, Retentions,
C David Andrews, Returning from IR: Although this technically does not fit this category, Andrews deserves to be mentioned. Even though Ted Karras played decently as he was thrust into the starting role, the Patriots felt Andrews absence, especially in the run game. Losing Andrews also likely contributed to the rest of the IOL (especially Mason, who played a lot of the season with a foot injury) not performing as well as they could have. Andrews' return will improve Jarrett Stidham’s performance, both through his protection as well as increasing the effectiveness of the Patriots’ rushing attack.
OG Joe Thuney, Franchise Tag: Bringing back Thuney was a wise move for the Patriots. The star left guard will be instrumental to protecting young quarterback Jarrett Stidham as well as ensuring the run game operates smoothly. Although some consider IOL to be a low-value position, Thuney will help the team acclimate to the other changes that happened around the offense. Having a solid line is an important element of building a good offense, and Thuney will ensure that the left guard position will work reliably.
DBs Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung: With Brady leaving, the Patriots found it valuable to keep long-time veterans around the team to maintain their team morale and culture while acclimating to the personnel change. McCourty has been a captain and locker room leader of the Patriots for quite some time and will be an important leader as the team adjusts to 2020. Both McCourty and Chung will feature in what should be a very strong secondary unit throughout the 2020 season.
DB/ST Adrian Phillips, FA: Boy do the Patriots love versatility special teamers! Phillips has played well as a special teamer and also played in many positions in the Chargers secondary, and will bring his veteran experience to the Patriots secondary. He will likely play in the rotation of safeties with Chung and McCourty, filling in a similar role to Harmon, who was traded the day before Phillips was signed.
DT Beau Allen, FA: The former Buccaneers DT will likely fill in as a replacement for Danny Shelton, who left the team to play for Detroit. Allen projects to play as a run-stuffing nose tackle that will ensure the Patriots can control the run.
FB Danny Vitale, FA: Vitale is an interesting signing. While he is listed as a fullback, he probably will not be a straight replacement for the retired James Devlin. Devlin primarily filled in as a lead blocker and sometimes as a rusher, but very rarely was used as a downfield threat. Vitale has some decent athleticism and pass-catching experience that the Patriots will likely utilize. His versatility may mean the Patriots move him around a lot instead of just using him as a lead blocker, though he has decent experience at that position as well.
LB Brandon Copeland, FA: Copeland was a signing the Patriots made to help account for the losses they had in free agency. The veteran LB recently played for the division rival Jets, where he primarily performed off the ball under Gregg Williams. Copeland brings some versatility and leadership as he has had to adapt from playing from the defensive line to off the ball.
WRs Marqise Lee and Dameire Byrd, FA: Byrd’s main attribute is straight-line speed, though he really has never been able to convert it into a high amount of production, in part due to injuries. Perhaps it’s because Dorsett was on this team for three straight years, but I am not going to bet on Byrd producing just because he has speed. Lee is much more interesting, as he was able to produce solidly during 2016-17. However, Lee has not performed nearly at all in the last two years because of injuries. If Lee can return to his pre-injury form, (though not very likely), he could carve out a pretty decent role on this New England roster.
The Draft:
2.37 Kyle Dugger, DB, Lenoir-Rhyne:
It wasn’t a surprise to many Patriots fans that the team elected to trade out of their first round pick, though some that held up hope the Patriots would make a selection might have been disappointed. Many fans wondered where the team would go with their first pick, and when it was announced that the team chose a DB from a division II school, people were initially exasperated.
Belichick’s record with 2nd round defensive backs is quite well known such that it has become a meme within the fanbase and around the NFL. His main success with the position in the second round was with Patrick Chung, and even he wasn’t very successful until his second stint. Obviously, we can’t declare a player a success or failure just because of prior trends or draft position and instead should look at the player himself if we are to make a judgement upon him.
Coming out of high school, Dugger only received offers from DII schools because he was very undersized. As he eventually grew into his frame in Lenoir-Rhyne, he elected to commit to the school that recruited him. Dugger is a hard-hitting player who most likely will transition to playing in the box as a safety for the Patriots, likely eventually taking over for aging veteran Patrick Chung.
What separates Dugger from many other defensive backs the Patriots have selected over the recent years is his athleticism. Dugger running a 4.49s 40, jumping 42 inches in the vertical jump and 134 in the broad jump while being 6’1” and 217 pounds presents a mixture of speed, size, and athleticism that is rare for a safety. The main aspect of his game that the Patriots need to work on is his transition to playing against NFL-level competition. Generally, the jump from a DI school to the NFL is quite large, the difference from DII to the NFL is even larger. It will likely take a year or two for Dugger to be ready to be a significant contributor on the defense as he adjusts to his new system. Adapting to these circumstances, the Patriots have ensured that Dugger will not have a lot of pressure to perform on defense early on through extending Chung and signing Phillips. Interestingly, Dugger’s coaching throughout his years at Lenoir-Rhyne has been inconsistent, he had to play under three different coordinators during his four years at the school. Hopefully with some great coaching and system stability with Bill and Steve Belichick Dugger can carve out his role as a future player in the secondary.
Perhaps to the disappointment of some Patriots fans, Dugger’s contributions early in his career will most likely be on special teams. Dugger had experience being a returner in college, and I would not be surprised if that becomes his primary role early on in his tenure. Dugger’s athletic ability gives him the potential to become a future star on the team if he can adapt to the NFL. Only time will tell whether he works out or becomes another player too add to the list of failed second round picks.
2.60 Josh Uche, OLB, Michigan:
Patriots Director of Player Personnel Nick Caserio remarked that prior to day two, the Patriots had three players they had a priority on acquiring: Dugger was one of them, and Uche was the other that the Patriots were able to draft with their selections.
Like Dugger, Uche is an explosive athlete with great speed as well as motor. Due to enduring an injury in the senior bowl, he was unable to participate in the combine. However, his athleticism shows up on film. Uche is a very versatile player, being able to play both on the line as well as off the ball and his efforts got him named the most versatile player by PFF in their 2020 draft guide. Michigan DC Don Brown said that he put Uche in nearly every position on the defense. I am sure Belichick was quite happy when he saw the 245 pound linebacker in coverage downfield against Penn State WR KJ Hamler. Amongst his versatility, his pass rush ability is what truly stands out. His 23.2% pressure rate and 28.2% pass rush win rate were second in both categories in the FBS. Uche achieved these great statistics through his incredible getoff off the line as well as good hand placement combined with his fantastic athleticism. Don Brown stated that Uche’s primary motivation was to become the best pass rusher in the country, and the dedication and work that Uche put in to be amongst the best in the country showed throughout the 2019 season. The primary aspect of Uche’s game that he needs to solidify in order to increase his role on the Patriots is increasing consistency with run defense.
Uche marked the first of five consecutive selections the Patriots made that addressed pressing needs. Considering the amount of LB talent that left over the offseason, it is possible that Uche will see a decent amount of playing time on the defense, perhaps in a similar role to former Wolverine Chase Winovich, whom Uche now rejoins in New England. I see Uche likely being the second-most impactful rookie to play for the Patriots this season, helping to strengthen the team’s pass rush, resulting in a more effective pass defense overall.
3.87 Anfernee Jennings, OLB, Alabama:
Jennings’ selection serves as a nice complement to Uche’s. While Uche is this very athletic and undersized linebacker, Jennings better fits into the traditional, big, physical type of linebacker. Coming from Alabama, Jennings offers great fundamentals and football IQ that come from developing under Alabama Head Coach Nick Saban. While he may not be the most athletic or flashy player, Jennings will likely cement his role in the Patriots defense as a solid and reliable player, especially against the run. Jennings registered great production during his time at Alabama, leading edge defenders in FBS for run-stop rate at 12.6%. The Alabama product has often been compared to former Patriots LB Kyle Van Noy due to his ability to be a versatile piece across the line.
Jennings is a very persevering player as well. In 2018 he suffered a worrying knee injury. Fortunately, the injury did not prevent him from returning to the field, but Jenninngs had to put in a lot of effort in order to return to his previous form. Saban also complimented Jennings’s dedication to improving himself in practice sessions. Jennings likely projects as an edge defender who will play very well against the run while also sometimes dropping into coverage. Jennings will likely see a fair amount of action as a rookie, especially on rushing downs. While he may not have a high ceiling, Jennings will likely be an anchor of the Pats’ defense as he progresses through his contract.
3.91 Devin Asiasi, TE, UCLA:
On the offense, New England desperately needed to do something with their TE situation. Matt Lacosse may be a replacement level backup, but Ryan Izzo is not an NFL-caliber player. With very little cap space to address the position in free agency, the Patriots looked to the draft to fill their TE position. By selecting Asiasi in the third round, it is the first time the Patriots have spent a day two or higher pick on a tight end since 2010, when they selected Gronkowski.
Asiasi will likely become the Patriots number 1 option at the position. When looking at Bill Belichick’s 1991 scouting notes shared by Daniel Jeremiah, NBC analyst Phil Perry noted that Asiasi seems to fit the bill for the number one role. Devin Asiasi displayed great catching ability throughout his year starting at UCLA, only having one drop throughout the entire year. Asiasi also demonstrated great ability to run after the catch, averaging 5.6 yards in this category. Another ability that Asiasi brings as a TE that the Patriots sorely missed in 2019 is blocking. Even if Asiasi won’t perform as a great blocker (which is best reserved for #2 or #3 TEs anyway), it will most likely be better than the awfulness that was Patriot tight end blocking last year.
Asiasi was suspended for three games in the 2018 season for undisclosed reasons by Chip Kelly. However, Bill Belichick and the Patriots are on good terms with UCLA head coach Chip Kelly, meaning that they were able to confer with Kelly and confirm that Asiasi would be a good fit with the team and his suspensions were nothing to.worry about. Asiasi also possesses high football intelligence, being able to run complex concepts such as option routes in Kelly’s TE heavy offense. Even though Asiasi is undersized for what people normally think of a #1 TE , only being 6’3” and 257 lbs., his athletic ability and smooth movement should translate well into the NFL. Although Asiasi will likely be the starting Y-Tight End for the Patriots offense, I would not bet on him to break the trend of rookie TEs having low production, though Asiasi will definitely contribute in blocking.
3.101 Dalton Keene, TE, Virginia Tech:
The Patriots also repeated something that they did 10 years ago, which was taking two tight ends in the draft. Dalton Keene is an interesting prospect to project for the Patriots. His playstyle resembles that of an F or move tight end. Even Belichick admitted after drafting Keene that they would have work to do in terms of finding him a role on this team, since the role that Keene played in the Virginia Tech offense is nothing like anything the Patriots run in their offense.
If Keene seems to be such a confusing fit for the Patriots, then what made the team trade back up into the third round in order to select him. The most defining feature that Keene exhibits through his play is toughness. He is a very dedicated and ruthless player, oftentimes toughing it out through injury and not playing with high regard to his health while on the field. The aggressiveness that Keene displayed both during practice and games caused his teammates to give him the nickname of “Rambo”. Keene’s offensive coordinator Brad Cornelsen called him the toughest player he has ever seen. Keene has never produced that much in the receiving game, only racking up 341 yards in his most productive receiving season. Perhaps given his athletic talent it suggests that Virginia Tech underutilized his ability in the passing game, instead placing more focus upon his ability in the run game instead. Keene will be a versatile player and likely fill multiple roles as the Patriots’ second tight end, primarily being used as that F tight end, move tight end, or perhaps H-back. He may in fact share similar duties to FB Danny Vitale. I would be more than happy if Keene and Asiasi can combine for about 600-700 receiving yards and a few touchdowns in their rookie year.
5.159 Justin Rohrwasser, K, Marshall:
Another need that the Patriots needed to fill during the draft or free agency was the kicker position. Many people expected the Patriots to take someone like Georgia kicker Rodrigo Blankenship, Georgia Southern kicker Tyler Bass, or Chase Vinatieri from South Dakota. When the Patriots selected Rohrwasser, a kicker who was so unknown that he didn’t even have a profile on the NFL’s website many people were confused.
What caused the Patriots to select this unknown kicker from Marshall. Rohrwasser displayed great performance throughout the 2019 season, having a statistically better season compared to the other higher profile kickers in the draft. Rohrwasser made 18 of 21 field goals and 35 of 36 XPs. He was perfect on kicks greater than 50 yards out, even hitting a clutch field goal from 53 yards against Western Kentucky after being iced twice. Belichickj stated that the Patriots have watched over 250 kicks and were impressed by his ability to kick in clutch situations as well as poor conditions, something Rohrwasser will have to do often in the AFC East. It is unclear whether Rohrwasser will relieve punter Jake Bailey of his kickoff duties (thought I think it’s more likely than not). If there is any position I trust Bill to evaluate, it’ s the placekicker. Rohrwasser will likely be the most impactful rookie on the patriots, mainly because he is the only surefire starter out of all of them. If Rohrwasser succeeds, the Patriots will be able to not go for fourth downs deep in enemy territory again and have a good kicker on a cheap rookie deal.
6.182 Michael Onwenu, OG, Michigan:
After addressing many immediate needs, the Patriots decided to take some shots at reserve linemen. Considering what happened in 2019, it is smart for the Patriots to add some young talent to the Offensive Line in order to account for things not going according to plan.
The first thing that strikes people when they look at Onwenu is his size. This man is HUGE, especially for an interior lineman. Coming in at 6’3”, around 350 lbs (he actually weighed closer to 370 during the season at college), Onwenu is a very physically imposing presence. He is very good at doing his job of not letting defenders get by him. During his past two years at Michigan, Onwenu played 1198 snaps, Onwenu only allowed 13 pressures and 2 sacks. He plays with great power and if he is able to get his hands on the defender, then it is over. Onwenu also possesses decent movement ability for his size; he will be able to perhaps do downfield blocking a bit better than people expect him to. Also, according to Michigan’s OL coach Ed Warriner, Onenwu really doesn’t have the ability to go much lower than 345 lbs.
Onenwu will start out on the team as a backup in the iOL, though more likely in his natural position of RG. Onenwu is quite different compared to New England’s other iOLs, he is 50 pounds heavier than the rest of our starting interiors. It will be interesting to see how Onwenu is able to execute the Patriots’ offensive scheme considering how physically different he is compared to Thuney, Andrews, and Mason. Either way, Onenwu will be a reliable depth piece that can protect Stidham if any of the starters go down.
6.195 Justin Herron, OG/OT, Wake Forest:
The second lineman that the Patriots invested draft capital in was Justin Herron. Herron started 51 games for Wake Forest, exclusively at the LT position. Herron’s experience at the position will likely slot him in as the primary backup to Isaiah Wynn, who has spent a lot of time of his career injured. Herron did suffer an ACL tear in the first week of the 2018 season, but rebounded quite well in 2019. Herron, like Onwenu, is a great pass-blocker. In 2017, the season prior to tearing his ACL, Herron allowed zero sacks. In 2019, when he recovered from his ACL injury, he only allowed four sacks and 13 pressures.
Some analysts raise questions about Herron playing tackle at the next level, instead projecting him as a guard. Interestingly, analysts made similar remarks about now-starting LT Isaiah Wynn. Considering that he only played left tackle during his time in college, I think the Patriots evaluated him and will use him as a tackle. If New England wanted an interior lineman, they likely would have selected someone else. Another concern that some have about Herron is his athleticism, which showed up at the combine, especially in his 8.41s three-cone drill. Scarnecchia often said the Patriots don’t care too much about athleticism in the OL, saying that they only needed to be athletic-enough. If the Patriots were that concerned about his athletic ability, he likely wouldn’t have been selected. Even so, it’s a great idea to grab a tackle who played solidly in college and will spend most of his rookie deal as a reserve player. This pick will be a success if Herron makes the team and can competently back up Wynn if he finds himself injured again.
6.204 Cassh Maluia, LB, Wyoming:
In the midst of the Patriots grabbing multiple offensive lineman, the Patriots selected another linebacker to increase their depth. During the 2019 season, Maluia went relatively under the radar due to his fellow linebacker and 65th overall pick Logan Wilson. However, those who studied Wilson likely saw Maluia pop out on a few occasions and make great plays. Maluia is an athletic and undersized linebacker, weighing in at only 231 lbs. His athleticism showed up both on tape and on the field, where Maluia displayed versatility across the field being able to both be a thumper as well as a decent coverage player. Maluia’s biggest concern is probably his tackling form, as his aggressiveness caused him to miss a fair amount of times. If Maluia makes the 53 man, he will likely contribute mostly as a special teams player, though his athletic ability might allow him to play a few snaps at defense.
7.230 David Woodard, C, Memphis:
With their final selection in the 2020 NFL draft, the Patriots threw a dart at another reserve lineman. Woodard played all across his the iOL throughout his college career, displaying the versatility that is desired in a backup lineman. Woodard does not have athletic testing available, though some analysts expressed concern about his athletic ability and his size, as Woodard only weighs 291 lbs. As detailed earlier, the Patriots generally concern themself more with technique than pure size and athleticism, and Woodard displays great technique. He graded out as the best run-blocking and second best pass-blocking center in 2019 through PFFs metrics. The Patriots will likely have to still improve Woodard’s technique to make him a future part of the team. Woodard projects as a reserve interior guy, particularly backing up C David Andrews if he makes the team.
UDFAs
Considering that a UDFA has made the New England roster for 16 straight years, I think it is appropriate to talk about some of the more interesting prospects in short. These are not all of the FAs the Patriots signed but some that I think are the most interesting and have the greatest chance to make the team.
For the QB position, the Patriots signed Michigan State QB Brian Lewerke and Louisiana Tech QB J’Mar Smith. Lewerke initially showed promise but a shoulder injury he suffered in 2018 really derailed his career. Smith is more interesting, as he displayed his athleticism throughout his career, as well as possessing great arm strength and ability to make flash off-platform throws. He was suspended for a game, but in his 11 starts he went 10-1 and won C-USA offensive player of the year. Neither QB really poses much threat to Stidham, but if one of them shows promise (especially Smith, who reportedly had a few offers from other teams), don’t be surprised if Belichick makes space for them on the 53 man roster.
For the WR position, which many people were surprised the Patriots did not take a shot at in the draft, the most interesting players are Auburn WR Will Hastings and Miami WR Jeff Thomas. Hastings was Stidham’s former slot receiver in college, racking up 26 receptions and 525 yards with the QB in 2017. Hastings tore his ACL prior to 2018, and Stidham missed his reliable option during the season. Hastings ran a 4.49s 40 and a blistering 6.64s 3-cone during his pro-day. Hasting’s connection with Stidham may allow for him to sneak onto the team. Thomas, on the other hand, mostly specialized as a deep threat for the Hurricanes. Even though he is undersized at 5’9 and 170 lbs, many scouts said he displayed draftable talent throughout his career. The aspect of Thomas that was more influential in making him a UDFA is his character concerns. Thomas has had an issue with nearly every coaching staff that he has interacted with, and got kicked off the 2018 team for attitude issues. If Thomas can pull himself together and realize that there are no more chances, he could transform into a future weapon for the Patriots.
Arizona RB J.J. Taylor is another interesting pickup for the Patriots. He is very short, coming in at only 5’5” tall (never in my life did I think I would be taller than a Pats player), but still manages to pack 185 lbs. Despite his size, Taylor is quite talented, displaying some decent shiftiness as well as the ability to bounce through contact. Perhaps because of his size and elusive playstyle, he has drawn comparisons to former Patriots RB Dion Lewis. If Taylor can show enough ability throughout the offseason, he might be able to get the Patriots to replace a RB, primarily Rex Burkhead, who many Pats fans theorize the team will cut for a few years now.
Ohio State TE Rashod Berry is another interesting player the Patriots picked up. He reportedly may change his position to OLB. Berry had some experience playing defense for Ohio State early in his career, though he did some snaps along the defense for a few games in his senior year. Many Ohio State fans say that Berry is a very athletic player who was underutilized by the Ohio State system. Wherever he plays, it will be interesting to see how his skill translates to the next level.
On the defensive side of the ball the Patriots were able to sign Auburn EDGE Nick Coe after negotiations between him and the Bills fell through. Coe was one of the top ranked free agents after the draft talent-wise, as he produced well in his first few seasons at Auburn. He is a much more prototypical big edge player the Patriots generally use in their system, but also has the versatility to play off the ball. However, Coe seems happiest playing as an edge rusher off the line. Coe’s main issue is his off-the field issues, where he feuded with his coaching staff over his assignments on the team, and also did not put in as much effort as a result. Coe is a very high-potential signing, but he will have to accept whatever role New England gives him if he wants to succeed.
The signing that gave the most guaranteed money went to Arkansas LB De’Jon Harris. Harris primarily plays as a thumping linebacker, which will likely be his role if he manages the Patriots. He has been theorized to fill a similar role to Elandon Roberts did last year (though likely not as a FB on offense). As a thumper, Harris’ best ability is tracking down and meeting the ball carrier, except he does suffer from some tackling issues.
The Patriots somehow managed to convince Bill Murray to join the team, where he will slot in on the defensive line. The DT from William & Mary displays good ability to be disruptive along the defensive line, though keep in mind that this was against FCS competition. Murray also managed to block 10 kicks during his tenure, something that Belichick is surely proud of. He reportedly is also a guy who is great at making his teammates laugh, perhaps like his celebrity counterpart. Considering that DL is a weaker position on the Patriots, Murray has a real shot to get on the team with his talent.
If I am going to talk about UDFAs that have a great chance of making the team, I am not going to overlook the secondary. The DB that the patriots signed this year was Washington’s Myles Bryant. Bryant is another undersized player, only coming at 5’8” and 183 lbs.. and primarily played free safety in 2019 after playing slot corner for the previous two years. Bryant showed good short-area quickness on the field as well as in athletic testing, running a 6.81s 3-cone. His greatest weakness is tackling, likely worsened by his small size. Bryant will need to improve his tackling if he wants to make the team. I also wanted to shout out 2019 UDFA UNM DB D’Angelo Ross, another undersized corner that showed some promise in the preseason prior to suffering a season-ending injury. I still don’t fully understand why Belichick spends so many premier picks on DBs when he can just pull great ones out of his rear nearly every year in the UDFA market.
Roster Projection:
Projecting the Patriots roster is especially difficult due to the amount of bodies at many positions such as OL, LB, and DB. This problem is exacerbated by the fact I haven’t seen anyone play yet or have the most recent updates on everyone’s health. I am not confident that this roster will be that accurate to the final roster that appears week 1.
QB (2) - Jarrett Stidham, Brian Hoyer
RB (5) - Sony Michel, James White, Rex Burkhead, Brandon Bolden, Damien Harris
FB (1) - Dan Vitale
WR (7) - N’Keal Harry, Mohammed Sanu, Julian Edelman, Marqise Lee, Jakobi Meyers, Matt Slater, Jeff Thomas
TE (2) - Devin Asiasi, Dalton Keene
OL (9) - Isaiah Wynn, Joe Thuney, David Andrews, Shaq Mason, Marcus Cannon, Yodny Cajuste, Justin Herron, Hjalte Froholdt, Michael Onwenu
DL (4) - Adam Butler, Beau Allen, Lawrence Guy, Byron Cowart
EDGE/LB (9) - Deatrich Wise, Chase Winovich, John Simon, Josh Uche, Anfernee Jennings, Dont’a Hightower, Ja’Whaun Bentley, Cassh Maluia, Brandon King
CB (6) - Stephon Gilmore, Joejuan Williams, Jason McCourty, J.C. Jackson, Jonathan Jones, Justin Bethel,
S (5) - Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Adrian Phillips, Kyle Dugger, Terrence Brooks
K - Justin Rohrwasser
P - Jake Bailey
LS - Joe Cardona
KR and PR - Dugger
Conclusion?
The Patriots enter a time of uncertainty that hasn’t existed in my lifetime. This 2020 squad is very hard to predict because of all the unknowns that exist all over the team, most notably at QB. It is possible that the Patriots perform better on the offense this year due to the sheer amount of players that are now healthy, especially alongside the offensive line. Although it is most likely the Patriots will not be a contender this year, depending on how well Stidham and the rest of the offense perform and develop, the team could bring itself into contention as early as 2021. I anxiously, but optimistically, await this team’s future.
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