The cannabis market right now is so similar to the start of the green energy market.. its nowhere near done being bullish. Save for some small dips, there will very likely be a huge bullish trend for 2021. EVEN NASDAQ AGREES. I’ve posted my positions a few times, and I’ll continue to do so. But this is my reasoning for investing in cannabis stocks in general for 2021.
I've been a bull on cannabis since the democrats had a strong pro-cannabis platform. But what made me go balls deep into the market was that the UN changed its classification of cannabis. Countries follow the UN closely for guidance on their own classification of controlled substances. Congress has repeatedly cited the UN’s classification as one of the reasons for not changing it. Several countries immediately changed their stance on cannabis in response to this, including Israel, which In November 2020, announced that it was moving forward with a plan to legalize recreational cannabis nationally. “The country is aiming to implement recreational legalization within nine months, and even if there are delays, that means mid-to-late 2021.” (This is my reason for investing in Canadian cannabis companies, because they are already poised to expand internationally since its legal there nationwide)
THE SENATE IS NOW BLUE! The Georgia runoffs were won by Democrats, and they can now swing the vote left with VP Harris. She promised it as part of her platform, so we know it will be prioritized. CHUCK SHUMER SPONSORED THE MORE ACT. HE WILL BE SENATE MAJORITY LEADER. IT WILL 100% BE PRIORITIZED BETWEEN HIM AND VP HARRIS.
EVERYONE predicted beforehand that the republicans would win Georgia... everyone talked down decriminalization passing the house because of they believed it would NEVER pass the republican majority senate. But the left spent more than any senate race in history to encourage voters to go out and vote. Only once the race started did it become clear that the left had a chance. Then some gains from the surprise that they won. However the gains from 1/5 onwards definitely hasn’t been priced in for all the future legislation, because some of it will be completely new legislation that wasn’t possible to consider before without a blue senate. THIS HASN'T BEEN PRICED INTO THE MARKET YET.
The government is broke post-COVID. There is a terrible image of the police. They don’t want to waste more resources on cannabis related crimes that would be fixed under decriminalization. And the tax revenue from decriminalization would be significant. Decriminalization (THE MORE ACT) opens up the borders to interstate-commerce and international import/export. This would all trickle down into Uncle Sam’s empty pockets.
New York Governor Cuomo announced on Jan 6 his plan to legalize marijuana for adult use (right after New Jersey vote, as I anticipated in my last post) as part of his State of the State agenda. The next step is a ripple out on the North East. NY didn’t want to miss out on tax revenue, neither will any of the other states in the northeast within driving distance of NJ and NY. This is Cuomo’s third attempt in three years to legalize adult-use cannabis in the state; last year, Cuomo included a legalization proposal in his state budget, but the plan was ultimately cut in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Other ongoing state legislature:
Rhode Island: Regulators have received 45 applications for six new medical cannabis dispensary licenses in the state. If all applicants meet the requirements for a license, six will randomly be selected in a lottery to operate retail locations in different regions across the state. Read more
Missouri: Rep. Shamed Dogan has filed legislation that would place an adult-use cannabis legalization measure on the state’s 2022 ballot. Meanwhile, Missourians for a New Approach has announced plans for a separate 2022 ballot initiative after an unsuccessful signature campaign to get the issue before voters in 2020. Read more
Alabama: Sen. Tim Melson plans to reintroduce a medical cannabis legalization bill this year. Medical cannabis legislation passed the Alabama Senate during the 2020 session, but failed to clear the House. Read more
Illinois: Illinois lawmakers have proposed the creation of 75 new cannabis retail licenses to give disadvantaged and minority applicants a second chance at licensing following the controversial licensing lottery to issue an initial 75 dispensary licenses. A work group made up of lawmakers and members of Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s administration met this week to finalize details of the bill, which will be introduced in a lame-duck session that starts Jan. 8, before new lawmakers are sworn in Jan. 13. Read more
Minnesota: House Majority Leader Ryan Winkler is again renewing his push to legalize adult-use cannabis in the state, announcing plans to reintroduce a legalization bill this year. Winkler told WCCO that he sees “Senate leadership as being the number one obstacle,” but said that if lawmakers agreed to place an adult-use legalization initiative on Minnesota’s 2022 ballot, “it would pass overwhelmingly.” Read more
Virginia: Del. Steve Heretick has reintroduced a bill to legalize adult-use cannabis. Heretick has proposed legislation related to decriminalization and legalization in the past, and this year’s bill would legalize the cultivation, sale and consumption of cannabis in the state. Read more
Connecticut: Gov. Ned Lamont renewed his push for adult-use legalization during his State of the State address Jan. 6, announcing that it is a priority for the new legislative session. Connecticut’s 2021 legislative session opened Jan. 6, and Lamont, a Democrat, kicks off the session with increased majorities in the House and Senate, which could increase his chances of passing an adult-use legalization bill. Read more
Now that you understand why I’m going green, here’s my reasoning for my positions. TLRY (Tilray)
largest cannabis company in the world by revenue post merger. Will run out of Seattle and New York City. New York Legalization on top of senate turning blue is a big catalyst for TLRY.
Merger hasn’t completed yet, and the merger happened before the senate went blue.. that was the gamble APHA was making, and they won. The sky is the limit now. When they merge, they will reduce expenses and be much more likely to post profitable quarters. (This is why mergers have so much hype; the sum is > than their parts because they can reduce operating expenses while maintaining revenue from the two companies)
Tilray CEO Brendan Kennedy: “I think medical cannabis will be legal at the federal level, which means medical cannabis can cross state lines and be imported into the U.S., like we export cannabis from Canada and Portugal to about 15 countries now,” Kennedy said. “Anyone who thinks there’s a state-specific medical market is wrong.” As for the recreational market, Kennedy says the state-specific markets, with interstate trade banned, “are not going to last long.” Kennedy believes that cannabis will be distributed like alcohol and tobacco within two years’ time. That would require significant overhaul of US federal drug laws—and would significantly disrupt all US cannabis companies’ existing business models. Brendan Kennedy, the cannabis billionaire will step down as Tilray's chairman and CEO. Irwin D. Simon, Aphria's current chairman and CEO will take Kennedy's place.
[On December 18, 2020, just three days after the U.S. Senate adopted the Cannabidiol and Marihuana Research Expansion Act (CMREA or the Act) (more on this below), the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA or the Administration) published in the Federal Register a final rule, “Controls To Enhance the Cultivation of Marihuana for Research in the United States” (Rule), which finally paves the way for DEA to issue additional licenses to grow “marihuana” (i.e., cannabis) for research purposes.](https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/on-heels-of-senate-s-adoption-of-36129/)
GNLN (Greenlane Holdings)
One of the largest global sellers of premium cannabis accessories. Pax/JUUL/Volcano products. I’ve had Pax products, and although I prefer Arizer because of the affordability, I can’t deny Pax has quality products and is like the “iPhone” of vaporizers. I like their products, I like their branding. There’s lots of hype and loyalty, especially with their Volcano desktop vaporizer.
Strong US brands.
The main reason they did poorly was bad timing. They IPO’d during the year that JUULs started being banned. They’re actually at all those levels again. Theres a ton of upside potential.
Market cap is ridiculously low for some really renown brands all because of the JUUL flavor pod ban. Everyone knows Pax, Volcano, and JUUL. But no one knows Greenlane because of the bad timing of their IPO and the subsequent JUUL flavor ban. It’s crazy. They’ve already broke all time high for the year. But I’m holding until they break 1B market cap.
Overall i think too many people count it out just because of their IPO and subsequent decline in JUUL sales from the JUUL flavored pods ban. They definitely have the potential because of their strong branding and quality products. I’m betting on them having more high quality products in the future with equally loyal customers.
SNDL (Sundial Growers)
SNDL must close above $1 per share for 10 consecutive sessions by June 26, 2021 or it will bedelisted from NASDAQ. People see this as a fear factor, I see this as “they will do anything necessary to reach $1 for a week so they won’t be delisted”.. IMHO reverse splitter probably isn’t on the table since they could have done that in 2020, but instead applied for a 6 month extension after announcing “alternative strategic investments”. We can already see this by their predatory loan SPAC spinoff.
Rumors of a merger with CGC; SNDL also purchased a SPAC recently and entered an agreement with Zenabis, immediately claiming they defaulted. Turning that SPAC into predatory loan/debt repurchasing company. Imo if they want to complete a merger, it would be easy to sell ownership through that SPAC to the buyer.
THEY RECENTLY WENTDEBT FREE by selling off unprofitable assets in the business. This means we are much more likely to see earnings in future quarters, and they are much more attractive for mergers.
Because they are indoor growers, they are more likely to be bought up by a company in the consolidating Canadian cannabis market than fail all together. The amount of space licensed to grow cannabis in Canada is now heavily skewed toward outdoor cultivation instead of indoor for the first time, according to new data from Health Canada. A growing population of licenses for outdoor growers means that there aren’t as many indoor licenses being given out... If a company ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD wants to quickly expand into indoor growing OR into the west, they would have to purchase an existing company that has the license to quickly do so. This is WAY faster, and a guaranteed way to obtain a license rather than applying for one and waiting x amount of months and be rejected for some requirement that wasn’t met.
From my own experience, outdoor cannabis is subpar quality to indoor grown cannabis. So a growing market for outdoor cannabis doesn’t necessarily mean its better... it is likely just cheaper. I would imagine a high quality “craft cannabis” company would want to purchase SNDL, or an existing outdoor growing company that wants to quickly expand to indoor grown cannabis. With this being a Canadian company, there’s a chance a company in another country like Israel would be interested in purchasing it in the near future.
PLNHF (Planet 13 Holdings)
Biggest tourist trap in Las Vegas if you’re a stoner, casual smoker, or just wanting to try it. From my own experience, I think they will continue to be successful. If I went around the US trying other brands I’d probably be more confident in putting 5-10% of my portfolio into those picks or choosing to not include them lol. Like for example, I used to have Curaleaf. But there's tons of bad feedback on Curaleaf, a friend has tried it said the nug is really subpar quality and if I tried their nug I’d probably confirm that I wouldn’t want to invest in them. With PLNHF, i’ve seen the ambience and tried the product myself. It’s definitely a lot of hype price wise, but still quality. This is my own bias showing, but I still think they’ve got solid fundamentals and excellent location/strong US branding.
I’m well aware of other good stocks like GTBIF, CRLBF, SSPK, TCNNF, GRWG.. but these stocks haven’t been swinging as hard in response to pro-cannabis news. E.g. TLRY, SNDL, GNLN swung more than 20% some days from pro-cannabis news...I will likely reduce my current positions shortly after inauguration, after some news about the timeline for cannabis legislation, and diversify my positions more between these other good picks. 2021 is the year of cannabis boys
1 - Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson - At this point, the only way Lawrence wont go first is if the Jags somehow write the wrong name on the card. 2 - New York Jets - Justin Fields, QB, OSU - Zach Wilson vs Justin Field has become a hotter debate in recent times, with mocks seems to split 50/50 on which of the 2 will go before the other. This one will likely end up coming down to preference, but personally I prefer Field’s upside and athleticism. Still, it’ll probably end up being a close call overall. 3 - Carolina Panthers (via MIA via HOU - sends 1.08, 3.73, 2022 CAR 1st, 2022 CAR 2nd, for 1.03) - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU - This seems like a lot at first glance, but I’d bet on the Panthers being much improved next year with the return of a healthy McCaffery and Joe Brady/Matt Rhule having another year to establish their system. What that means is that if the Panthers can improve at QB, they could be a legitimate playoff contender. Teddy Bridgewater is not the answer, and IMO when you have someone as good as CMC, you need to give him a good QB. The Panthers don't want to end up like the Vikings, sticking a bunch of mediocre at best QBs next to their stud RB. 4 - Atlanta Falcons - Trey Lance, QB, NDSU - I know there’s a large portion of Falcons fans who really want to go anywhere but QB here, but how much longer can Matt Ryan play at a high level? With the 2022 QB class still full of question marks, grabbing your guy of the future right now would be a prudent move. Its instant gratification vs long term strategy. And with the success of raw QBs at the next level under proper development, Trey Lance looks like a solid bet. He’s got a great arm, and plays smart enough to only have a single interception in his college career. There’s a serious ceiling here, and he could absolutely benefit from learning from Matt Ryan for a year. Arthur Smith completely revitalized Tannehill as well, so maybe he could turn Lance into a stud. 5 - Cincinnati Bengals - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon - Seems like it ends up working out for the Bengals, who really need to protect Joe Burrow. There’s been whispers that teams have Rashawn Slater over Sewell currently, but I partially chalk that up to prospect fatigue. IMO Sewell’s the best OT in the class, and although he’s got areas he can improve, his body of work is utterly dominant currently. If he can polish up his technique and stay healthy, he’ll be a godsend to the Bengals OL. 6 - Eagles - Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU - DeVonta Smith has been crazy this year, but it seems like people have forgotten Ja’Marr Chase was just as dominant last year too. Honestly, the Eagles really can't go wrong here with either WR, but IMO Chase is more of a sure thing to be dominant in the NFL, as minute of a difference as that is. 7 - Detroit Lions - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama - After that insane performance against Ohio State, I don't think the Lions can pass up on Smith here, even as bad as their defense is. With their entire WR corps being possible FAs, they need to find replacements ASAP, especially if they cannot find a way to agree to a deal with Kenny Golladay. As for Smith well, he’s a beast. Plain and simple. Y’all saw what he did to Ohio State in just one half. 8 - Houston Texans (Via MIA via DET - Sends Deshaun Watson, 2022 HOU 3rd for 1.08, 2.50, 2022 MIA first, 2023 MIA first, Tua Tagovailoa, salary fillers) - Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan - The Dolphins send away Tua + a ton of picks for a shiny new franchise QB, and the Texans begin their rebuild. First up is addressing the defensive line. JJ Watt is very likely gone, Whitney Mercilus is done, and Jonathan Greenard has disappointed. They need someone who can make a serious impact, now. Kwity Paye has been one of the most dominant players in college football, with an insane pressure rate, and is a supposed athletic freak who runs a sub 6.8 3 cone at 6’4’’, 272, with some claiming it being as low as 6.37. No matter what the time ends up being, it's utterly insane for someone of his size, and he could likely play the same role that Watt does for the Texans. 9 - Denver Broncos - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State - The Broncos do really need CB, but there’s a pretty big hole in the middle of the defense next to Alexander Johnson. Josey Jewell isnt a 3 down LB, and it's really hard to pass up on Parsons here, an elite LB who can be the tonesetter of the Broncos defense from day one. Pairing up Parsons and Johnson should give Denver two monsters in the middle of the defense. 10 - Dallas Cowboys - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech - Now that Dan Quinn’s the new DC, meaning that they’ll be running a ton of Cover 3. And with how much Quinn loves his physical/athletic CBs who can play both man and zone, Caleb Farley is the natural pick here IMO. He’s sticky as glue, with fluid hips and a size profile that NFL teams dream of, perfect for pattern-match that should be used a lot in Dallas next season. His zone coverage does need a little work, but the Cowboys will likely be doing mostly spot-drop zone, which is pretty simple to pick up, and outside of injury concerns, Farley should be a huge help for the Dallas defense. 11 - New York Giants - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina - The Giants love their press man coverage, but were forced to run zone a lot last year due to how bad their cornerbacks were outside of James Bradberry. Jaycee Horn fits their preferred scheme, and also shores up that huge hole at CB2 that they have. No CB in the class is as good as disrupting WRs at the LOS as Horn is, and he’ll be a great addition to what was a surprisingly good defense last year. 12 - San Francisco 49ers - Patrick Surtain, CB, Alabama - The 49ers have 0 CBs under contract next year. They need building blocks now, especially with Robert Saleh now gone. Patrick Surtain fits into their zone heavy system perfectly. He’s got elite ball skills, is consistently disruptive, and can stick to WRs like glue. He’d be the perfect guy to replace Richard Sherman if the 49ers cant bring him back, and should be able to slot in at CB1 or CB2 immediately. 13 - LA Chargers - Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern - Slater’s a guy who's been getting a ton of hype in recent times, with some even putting him above Sewell. How much of that is real and how much of it is smoke? Hard to say at this point, but I do know that he’ll be an upgrade no matter where he slots in for the Chargers. Protecting Herbert should be there #1 priority right now, especially for the terrible LA OL. Slater should be a fantastic player for the Chargers from day 1. 14 - Miami Dolphins (Via Minnesota Vikings - sends 1.18, 3.82 for 1.14) - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama - Miami goes ALL in here. With Watson now on the roster, their window is now, and they treat it with urgency, giving up some more draft capital to grab the last of the 3 main stud WRs in the class. Jaylen Waddle fits what Miami needs right now, a speed demon joystick who would be what Will Fuller was for Watson in Houston, a connection that was lethal even with Fuller being injured constantly. Watson to Waddle should be one of the deadliest partnerships in the league, turning the Miami offense into a high powered scoring machine. 15 - New England Patriots - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama - Mac Jones is a guy who’s worked his way from fringe QB prospect all the way up to R1 guy. I'm not sure if the NFL likes him as much as most people in the draft community do, but he’s a smart QB who was instrumental in leading the Crimson Tide to a National Championship. I’d say he grades out pretty well at all the important areas of being a QB, like his arm, going through progressions, that kind of thing. This only big flaw IMO is his ability to extend plays, but the Patriots have the OL to shore up that weakness. The main question here is how will Mac Jones play without any solid WRs? The Patriots receiving corps is barren, so that will be something that must be addressed soon. 16 - Arizona Cardinals - Wyatt Davis, OG, Ohio State - The Cardinals offensive line seems to consistently lose at the LOS, something that was a huge part in them not making the playoffs. With that in mind and all of the top 3 CBs long gone, they grab the mauling OG out of Ohio State, an absolute mauler who can hit hard to create space in the run game. He’s a great fit for the Cardinals run game, and should give them some of the nasty they’ve been lacking. 17 - Las Vegas Raiders - Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah, LB, Notre Dame - It's hard to say what the Raiders will go with, as Mayock has not been on the job that long, but this is a pick that I agree with Daniel Jeremiah on. The Raiders lack that dynamic linebacker who can move around and cover everything, and JOK should be able to line up all over. He’s perfect for an NFL that seems to value positionless players more, and especially for a Raiders defense that’s going to be stuck against Travis Kelce for the near future. 18 - Minnesota Vikings - Gregory Rousseau, DE/DT, Miami - When your sack leader is a guy you traded away half way through the season, there's a problem. That Vikings defense was inexcusably bad this year, even with the loss of Danielle Hunter, and basically cost their offense a shot at the playoffs. They need to add some juice to the pass rush ASAP. Gregory Rousseau would be perfect, a raw and crazy athletic player who can line up all over the defensive line to wreak havoc. Considering Minnesota turned one athletic freak into a stud, they should have confidence that they can make Rousseau great too, and he’d be a wonderful addition, especially considering the fact that the Vikings have moved around their edge rushers to exploit mismatches, most notably against the Saints. 19 - Washington Football Team - Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech - There doesn't seem to be a solid answer at QB available here for Washington, so they look to bolster up their trenches in order to replace the departed Trent Williams. Darrisaw has the size and length to be a fantastic NFL tackle, along with an extremely strong anchor and some great agility for his size. His technique needs to be cleaned up a little, but he could easily lock down the LT spot for Washington in the future. 20 - Chicago Bears - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota - Allen Robinson is gone, leaving a huge hole at WR1 for Chicago. Seeing as there’s not really a great way to fix Chicago’s QB situation, they instead look to try and make the most of their closing window. Rashod Bateman should come in and be the WR1 for Chicago, a great route runner with sure hands who can snag a ball and some more yards after the catch. Hopefully Trubisky builds a much better connection with him than he did with Arob. 21 - Detroit Lions (Via IND - sends Matthew Stafford for 1.22, salary filler) - Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa - The Lions defense really needs help at LB. Jarrad Davis is probably starting again, but Tavai really shouldnt be. Zaven Collins can step in and be the best LB in the Lions from day 1, an absolute freak athlete who can cover, can stop the run, and even has a pass rushing upside. He’s the perfect chess piece for the new Lions defense to build around, and should be an immediate impact player from day 1. 22 - Tennessee Titans - Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa - The Titans need pass rush in every capacity, and that includes from the defensive line. Jeffery Simmons is a monster, but he doesn't get much help. He’d pair up great with Daviyon Nixon, a freak athlete out of the B1G who excels most when he gets to pin his ears back and just attack the QB. His ability to cause issues down the middle should help alleviate the Titans pass rush issues somewhat. 23 - New York Jets (Via SEA) - Kyle Pitts, TE/WR, Florida - The Jets just need to add weapons to their team at this point. Their WR corps has little promise outside of maybe Mims, and their TE corps is equally barren. Pitts addresses both of those issues at once. Able to play all over the lineup, Pitts can work as both a huge WR and a TE, able to consistently beat coverages and get catches against defenses. He’ll be a great weapon for Fields to utilize, a truly dynamic threat who could be one of the best receivers on the Jets from day 1. 24 - Pittsburgh Steelers - Liam Eichenburg, OT, Notre Dame - A lot of the Steeler’s tackle depth, most notably starting LT Alejandro Villenueva, will be lost to FA, and Pittsburgh needs to address that ASAP. Liam Eichenburg isnt the most athletic OT with a crazy high ceiling, but he’s a solid technician who should be able to start from day 1, perfect for a contending team like the steelers. 25 - Jacksonville Jaguars (via LAR) - Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas - The Jaguars need to protect their investment, especially with Cam Robinson a question mark to be back due to his poor play. Protecting a young QB should be the #1 priority after landing one, and Cosmi is a tantalizing prospect to add. He’s got plenty of athleticism and a frame that’s waiting to be filled out, a solid pass blocker who can deal with speed rushers really well. He’s a high ceiling prospect who could become a great LT and lock down Tlaw’s blind side for the future. 26 - Cleveland Browns - Jaelen Phillips, EDGE, Miami - Sometimes it just feels like the Browns defensive line is just Myles Garrett. That can't stand. The Browns need to give Garrett some help in the pass rush, and that's why they pick Jaelen Phillips. There’s a lot of injury concerns here, but if Phillips can stay healthy, he’s an absolute MONSTER in the pass rush, having notched 8 sacks in just 5 games this year. If he can stay on the field, he and Garrett should give opposing offensive lines some serious headaches. 27 - Baltimore Ravens - Alijah Vera-Tucker, iOL, USC - The Ravens need to bolster their offensive line more. After the loss of Marshall Yanda, the Ravens offensive line has taken a notable step back, and Ronnie Stanley’s injury certainly didn't help there. AVT’s easily BPA at this point, an interior beast who is a stone wall with excellent hand usage. He should be able to make the Ravens offensive line even better, and boost their already lethal run game to higher levels. 28 - New Orleans Saints - Kyle Trask, QB, Florida - Im sorry, I don't think Taysom Hill is an NFL level QB. Especially not for a title contender. Drew Brees is retired, and I doubt Winston will be back. That means QB is the most glaring hole in NO. Kyle Trask might never be Patrick Mahomes, but he’s a good solid player who can make accurate passes, adjusts to pressure well, and is willing to extend plays. With the Saints filled with weapons and talent, Trask should be a good enough game manager to help the Saints be contenders for the rest of their window. 29 - Green Bay Packers - Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington - Kenny Clark and Keke Kingsley are building blocks along the defensive line, but the Packers could afford to add some depth. Onwuzurike has been mocked in the first by DJ, and he tends to have his ear to most NFL team’s pulse. Onwuzuriki’s calling card is his length and athleticism, which combined with his explosiveness and motor results in him just running over people at times. He does need to improve his power and add more consistently, but the addition of Onwuzurike could make the Packers defensive line a force as good as the Steelers DL. 30 - Buffalo Bills - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson - The Bills just need playmakers especially in the run game, and Etienne is one of the best pure playmakers in the class. He’s an explosive threat who must be addressed at all times, or else he could break free and gash the defensive for serious yardage. His acceleration and contact balance make him a problem to tackle, and with supposed 4.3 speed, defenders won't be able to catch him once he gets into open space. He’s no slouch in the pass game either, putting up solid production at Clemson and flashing the ability to run a few option routes. The Bills already have their Jim Kelly and Andre Reed in Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Time to add the Thurman Thomas of the trio, and turn Buffalo into an offense that can toe to toe with the Chiefs. 31 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan - Donovan Smith is very likely gone this year, meaning that Tampa would have a hole at one of the tackle spots opposite of Wirfs. No matter if they move Wirfs to LT or keep him at RT, Mayfield would be a great get opposite of him. Mayfield’s a dependable run blocker who has good feet, and although he's not finished just yet, if Tampa can utilize his athletic gifts to the fullest, he’d be a great compliment to their current franchise OT. 32 - Kansas City Chiefs - Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington - Joe Tryon’s another player who is apparently well regarded according to DJ. He’s shown flashes of being a great pass rusher, but he’s really still a WIP in most areas, especially as a run defender. However, he does fit the mold of what the Chiefs want in their pass rushers, standing at 6’5 262. Kansas City does need the help on the EDGE, and they can afford to take a gamble here, considering the Mahomes led offense should be able to easily cover up any defensive deficiencies for the next few years.
A series of trips to Las Vegas by September 11 hijackers became the object of the largest investigation in the city. The reason behind these trips remains a mystery.
On September 11 of 2001, 19 men hijacked four planes and crashed them into the World Trade Center, the Pentagon and into an open field in Shanksville PA. These men were al-Qaeda terrorists doing the deeds in the name of a holy war against the West and not much about the attack remains a mystery unless you subscribe to the inside job theory, which isn't my case. What authorities haven't been able to explain is the hijackers' several trips to Las Vegas despite what has been dubbed to be the broadest investigation in city. All these trips happened within a few months before the attacks, but the men behind them left very little evidence of their activities in the area. TIMELINE May 24 - Marwan Al-Shehhi, the pilot who crashed the United Airlines Flight 175 into the South Towers of the WTC, arrived to Las Vegas from San Francisco and rented a room at Travelodge as a walk in customer. Once there, he called eight other motels. May 25 - Al-Shehhi walked in the St. Luis Manor, a hotel that wasn't on the call list. At 12:52 pm, he rented a different car, but didn't return the first car until 3:58pm. The unaccounted mileage in both vehicles summed up to 29 miles. FBI believes that these unusual patterns were a conscious attempt to avoid detection. May 27 - Al-Shehhi made it to New York. June 7 - Ziad Jarrah, pilot of the United Airlines 93 that crashed in Shanskville while on its way to the Capitol Building, arrived to Las Vegas and rented a car at 3:13 pm. He was accompanied by an unidentified man described as "middle eastern looking". When Jarrah asked for directions to Circus Circus Hotel and Casino, the a rent-a-car employee tried to give him an answer but was interrupted by the unidentified man who suggested another route. The man's knowledge of the address suggests that he was familiar with the area or that he had been in Las Vegas before. June 10 - Jarrah took a flight to the Baltimore Washington International Airport leaving his rented car with a mileage exceeding 200 miles and no trace of his Las Vegas whereabouts . June 28 - Mohamed Atta, pilot of American Airlines Flight 11 that crashed into the North Tower of WTC and leader of the hijackers, arrived to Las Vegas at 2:41 pm and rented a car at 4:25 pm. At 6:40 pm Atta established an account at Cyberzone internet café and used the computer for one hour and thirty five minutes. June 29 - Atta checked into Econo Lodge Motel at 1:01 pm. He logged in at Cyberzone again at 2:21 and 6:21 pm. Once done, the FBI believes he went back to his hotel. June 30 - Atta accessed his Cyberzone accounts at 1:56 pm, 6:30 pm and 9:33 pm. The mileage analysis indicated that he returned to his hotel afterwards. This day as well as the day before, Atta had placed several call to Al-Shehhi as well as to two different number in Houston, TX. One number was unassigned and the other one belonged to a mobile salesman. July 1 - Atta returned his rented vehicle at the airport at 5:12 am and took a flight to New York that connected in Denver. The vehicle had 73 unaccounted miles of usage which the FBI believes would cover a round trip to the Hoover Dam. July 31 - Waleed al-Shehri, hijacker of the Flight 11, took a flight from San Francisco to Las Vegas where he stayed for 45 minutes while waiting for another flight to Miami. It is unclear to me whether this was a tactical flight - the hijackers were believed to take flights to study their trajectory as well as entrance to the cockpit-, or just a connection. August 13 - Hani Hanjour and Nawaf al-Hazmi, pilot and hijackers of the American Airlines Flight 77 that crashed into the Pentagon arrived to Las Vegas at 11:18 am. At 11:58 am, Atta arrived to Las Vegas to and rented a vehicle at 1:46 pm. The FBI assumed that the three men met, but no activity from Hanjour and al-Hazim was recorded from that trip. Atta accessed a room at the Econo Lodge at 2:55 pm and connected at the Cyberzone at 11:26 pm, getting back to his room at 12:46 am. August 14 - Atta returned his rented car at 11:09 am leaving no unaccounted mileage and took a flight outside Las Vegas. Hanjour and al-Hazmi boarded a flight at 11:29 am. THEORIES A) Al-Qaeda was looking to target Las Vegas area As noted in Atta's first trip, the unaccounted mileage added up to a round trip to the dam from his hotel. However, Atta's vehicle was not among the recorded license plates in the parking garage of the dam. If the hijackers had connections in Las Vegas area, which seems to be the case with Jarrah, Atta might have traveled to Boulder City or any other town close to the lake and gotten to the dam with someone else in a different vehicle. It should also be noted that both Atta and al-Shehhi stayed in hotels close to the Stratosphere, a hotel and casino located in the highest building of the city. Being known as the Sin City, Las Vegas could have been a attractive target for jihadists looking to rebel against what they perceived to be the westernization of their home countries and culture. B) Hijackers were exchanging information with other Al-Qaeda members The FBI emphasized the short duration on hijacker's trip to Las Vegas saying that it was just long enough to exchange information. Authorities believe that Atta was not only looking at flight on the East coast but he also kept in communication with Ramzi bin al-Shibh, a potential 20th hijacker who had been denied entry to the United States and acted as an intermediary between Al-Qaeda and the other hijackers. Jarrah's mystery companion and the complete lack of evidence of his whereabouts point to possible terrorist acquaintances residing or staying in Las Vegas that are yet to be identified. The FBI summary mentions two persons of interest: Lotfi Raissi and Zakaria Hassan Ibrahim. Raissi started attending the Sawyer School of Aviation in 1998 one month after Hanjour quit. Two days after Jarrah left Las Vegas, Raissi arrived to the city with his wife and stayed there until June 18. His stay didn't overlap with that of the hijackers and he claims he went to Las Vegas to celebrate his honeymoon. On September 21, Raissi was arrested near Colnbrook, UK, where he had been living at the time of the attacks. Prosecutor Arvinder Sambei claimed that the FBI had footage of him celebrating an event with Hanjour and that his flight logs from March 2000 to June 2001 were missing. It has also been claimed that Raissi was training five of the hijackers. No such proof was presented to the courts and the man in the footage turned out to be his cousin and not Hanjour, as it had been previously claimed. Hassan Ibrahim had previously been convicted for trafficking in fraudulent passports and visas. He was the person to provide Mir Aimal Kansi, CIA headquarters shooter , and Mohammed A. Salameh, perpetrator of the 1993 WTC bombing, with fake documents. He was reported to have spent most of July in Las Vegas. Unfortunately, not much information about this individual is accessible so I could not verify if any connection between him and the hijackers was formally established. C) Hijackers went to Las Vegas as a final pleasure stop before committing suicide This theory was briefly mentioned by Evan Thomas, journalist, and quoted by criminologist Adam Lankford in his psychological autopsy of Mohamed Atta. According to the author, Atta and the other hijackers - Hanjour and al-Hazmi - might have visited Las Vegas because maybe " they wished to be fortified for their mission by visiting a shrine to American decadence". While not much is known about Hanjour and al-Hazmi, Atta has been alluded to by the people who knew him as a sexually repressed man who experienced extreme discomfort around women and the mildest hint of sexuality. When years of repression build up an uncontrollable sexual urge, the individual might end up participating is risky sexual activities. Nevertheless, the circumstances of the trip make sex and gambling very unlikely motives. Their stays were short, happened across different months and there was no evidence of them visiting casinos or any similar venues. Strippers supposedly identified al-Shehhi as one of their patrons, but evidence was not conclusive. Furthermore, there is no reason to believe that a quick visit to the strip club was anything more than a fun opportunity while pursuing a bigger goal. I personally believe that the hijackers visited Las Vegas to coordinate the attacks with other members from Al-Qaeda who flew under the radar (no pun intended). SOURCES: Las Vegas investigative summary Theories on why 9/11 hijackers visited Las Vegas David C. Henley: 9/11 hijackers visits to Nevada remain a mystery Wikipedia entry for Mir Aimal Kansi Wikipedia entry for Mohammed A. Salameh Cracking the terror code EDIT: Thanks for the awards people!
JoJo's Bizarre OC Tournament #5: Round 3 Match 9 - Jacob Brown vs William Eyelash - William Eyelash vs Jacob Brown
The results are in for Match 7. Espiritu was not okay. It had gone dark, and he was no longer certain what was going on around him. It was hard to stand, and he was hot and hurting, and the crowd and the calls of the content creator after every play were noise to him, in the Necropolis he had tried to make. He knew there were seconds left, now, and did not even know what was to happen. So, into the void, he began to call out with his Stand. “This is a waste of time!” Hurt. “You have been rash, and done no good, and you care even less than I do!” He trembled, barely able to stand. “You say you are preparing me, but you have done nothing but hurt! Nothing but take! You have manipulated some child to play with lives! You, foolish… You don’t even mean to give her what you promised in the end, do you? Only another liar, who thinks I need another problem, and has become one.” Bang said nothing, wherever he was. Espiritu had hoped he was far away. The young man had been fighting relentlessly and calling it a lesson. If it was a joke, it only made the jaguar want to cry. “Manipulated..? Is… Is this me?” Nebula spoke from her screens, whatever she saw clearly giving her pause, then. “This is your stage. Your egoism. Your lie to harm and call it kindness.” The Stand’s voice was faltering, flickering. Then, Nebula’s pep returned with a snap. “Oh, hey, look at that, folks and five-year-olds, it’s TIME!” Airhorns blared, then, and Espiritu recoiled once more. “Of course, you probably have working eyes if you’re watching this, so I don’t need to tell you who has the key! What a show, am I right?” Nebula said, some forcedness to her cheer. I don’t care… I don’t care who won. This… This was a waste. Let it be someone else’s. Someone who is not doomed to fail… I… I simply wish to live. Is that too much to ask? Espiritu gave a final anguished roar before, finally, the pain he had sustained had become too much. His legs gave out, and he collapsed on the steps of City Hall. The winner is Espiritu del Alocatlal, with a score of 72 to Bang “Boogie” Bronson’s 71!
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Masters of Funky Action
13-17
A last-minute vote turned a tied-up match into a 5-4, and even under the circumstances, judges saw no reason to discount it. A disclaimer, though: we can only count votes if we see them, so sometimes it is possible for automod to give us hell. Let judges know in the future if you’re uncertain whether or not your vote was noticed and counted!
In the future, there will be very harsh penalties on anybody going over judges’ heads to privately press people to delete or change the outcome of their votes. Wasn’t anywhere else that felt like the right spot to mention that.
“Well, chat, sorry to say,” Evelyn pointed out, “but the audience favorite laser-artist couldn’t quite cut it! Laser collection is way too 2000s, especially without a good way to take back the key! And where oh where did Espiritu send that file?” She revealed her empty hands. “I don’t even have the folder anymore! It’s wherever he had it go!” “S-so… In the end, my gamble didn’t pay off, huh?” Bang muttered to himself, walking closer to Espiritu as the floating triangle over his head faded entirely. He crouched over him, waving a hand before his eyes and realizing, quickly, that they were registering nothing. He had blinded the jaguar. “Well… I don’t know that yet.” Bang stood, then, looking down over him, the artist himself sore and nicked up, but in much better condition physically. “You… Y-you might not know it yet, but ‘conflict’ like this… It is necessary, you know. It’s… I-it’s the only way any of us will see the end of this, by pushing one another through. I won’t be the last to scar you.” Espiritu whimpered at that, and before Bang could monologue more, Wrenn Aflight’s singsongy voice piped in, “hey, Lou ran off to do something, but she wanted me to pass a message along, and like a good boyfriend, I agreed~!” “Hm?” Bang turned his head slowly. “Wh-what could that-” WHAP! Wrenn’s Stand drove a rocky hand across Bang’s face, sending him hurtling into the pavement with some force and releasing a good bit of glitter. Tilting his head, he said, “‘and maybe don’t torture animals on a livestream!’ That was part of it too.” Bang was caught off-guard, already worn and out of it, sneering the way of the others present and how the eyes and cheers of the crowd had turned on him from their peak. He needed to make a getaway. “And Espiritu, if you’re listening… She’s sorry she didn’t stop this right away. She wants to talk later.” Wrenn gave a cutesy curtsy to the big monitors, then, adding, “hey, Nebula! Wanna collab sometime? We could play Fivetnite or Shoal Calibur Zero instead of all this!” In her dimly-lit room, Evelyn Ensanar watched the strike with a snicker, then stroked her chin quizzically. “Whoa, pog! I make a face reveal and immediately get invited to collab with you… Well, better look out! By the end of it, I’m totally gonna be more popular than you!” That forced grin was becoming easier, as she motioned a neck-slitting. “So there! I’ll take you down on your own channel like a bitter rival, Aflight!” “Heheh, you don’t stand a chance~!” Wrenn gave a cutesy wave, then, before the stream of city hall was cut off, and Nebula’s feed instead showed some console’s startup screen with the revealed user’s head in the corner. Before Evelyn could continue, however, they heard revving outside, putting her headset down. “Just a minute, guys. Gotta check on something… I swear, if I got swatted…” She looked past the curtain in front of the open window, then, seeing that pink-haired girl get off a motorcycle, Councillor Ray stretching his legs close behind. They’d clearly come alone. I guess… Espiritu wanted me to have this? Ray pondered, looking over the folder. Lou had said that she’d realized where that stream was taking place… Somehow, and then led him there quick as she could, insisting to take the lead. My coworkers’ secrets are my responsibility… Why did that Slums cult have this, and how did Bang get it? “Evelyn Ensanar!” ‘Lou’ Reed called out through cupped hands on the lawn, seeing the younger girl peeking through the broken window. “Come out, please! You don’t need to wallow like this!” “…” Evelyn couldn’t help but snicker at that. This girl didn’t look too much older than her, and who the hell was she kidding? Of course Evelyn was happy, living within these four walls, in this home downtown. She’d just had her biggest event ever, and she was being downtalked by someone who walked out of it because a poor widdle kitty got hurt trying to fight someone. “You don’t think you can trust anyone, is that it? Even now, after an older boy led you along, only to hurt people when you thought you wanted the same thing, some part of you is calling out, ‘this isn’t right,’ right? I understand… I’ve been through that! I’ve pushed people away because I needed them most! But… Don’t indulge the void, please. Don’t feed that worst instinct… I swear, if you come out, greet the world, it won’t tear you apart. You’re bright, you’re good… You can be you so much better, I promise you.” Evelyn stayed silent through that, peering with one eye past the curtain. No… That totally didn’t hit the nail on the head. It was just a passing impulse, a joke on herself, the momentary urge to truly step out as requested. Who did this idiotic ‘Angel’ think she was? Evelyn knew, in that moment, she would be happy like this forever. She pulled away from the curtain, then, pressing a button, and shutters completely overtook every entrance to the house, gating her off from the attempt to reach in. With a sigh and a shake of their head, Nebula laughed, putting her headset on and returning to her seat. “Sorry about this, pals! Typical ‘cringeler’ behavior over that last big show, you know? But no more interruptions, yeah?” That smile grew even wider, even more comfortable, as the outside’s natural lighting dimmed to what faint flickers made it past the metal. “Let’s game the night away.” Nothing was gained from this event. No lessons were learned. Only hurt, and hope that maybe, the future might not be so cruel. More live-streamed intrigue waits in the wings of a televised fencing battle for the continuation of an entire team. There’s only a few hours left to vote in that as of when this post goes up, so get to it! Scenario: Midnight Sun College Town - The Streets Somewhere or Whatever. Late Morning A light snowfall had dusted the ground all across the College Town, covering everything in a faint layer of white about an inch thick. People were selling hot drinks in the streets, kids were running around in it, tossing snowballs, and adults were shivering as they made it through their day roughly as normal. One youth in particular walked aimlessly along a snowy sidewalk, shivering and shoving his hands into his pockets, feeling on edge as he watched his breath fog visibly in the cold air. At least he had layers at all, though it could have been leagues better. It wasn’t something you would go for a long walk in the snow in, but William Eyelash wasn’t exactly prepared for his daylong errant errand to take him into snowy weather. After all, it wasn’t snowing at all in the Slums, or basically anywhere else West of the Wormwood River. By all he could gather, it was just the College Town, and nobody in this city had even seen fit to remark on the odd sort of localization. He had begun to make peace with Ocean Eyes not as some malevolent entity he needed to control, but as a part of him, an extension of himself, and it had indeed legitimately calmed the beast down somewhat, at least in recent days made the ferociousness of it all his own. He had thought that plenty, then, to live his life, only to learn the nature of what had last month defeated a coworker of his; a woman whose Stand, and whatever of her it represented, had become so misaligned from the user that it had actively fought against her wishes. The thought of that happening to Ocean Eyes, of having even less control over this part of himself, brought a chill up William’s spine worse than any blizzard, so he thought that he might find something of worth to his desires there… Though he didn’t really have any particular plan, beyond ambling about, seeing what the most Stand-centric district of the Stand-centric city could offer, perhaps having a fated run-in with somebody who could give him answers. “Snow looks… Nice, at least,” he remarked through a shiver, loving the way the settled white coated everything… And then tensing up as, out of an alley, red stains of crimson passionate cutting spilled out abruptly over it. Not so long ago, William would have turned away in abject terror from a sight like that, or if pursued, his Stand would have come out and made it hell for those who set him off. But he’d gotten some life-changing advice from one of the city’s worst serial killers, seen a self-styled aggressive villain literally set best-laid malicious plans alight. Even if there was danger here… Maybe there was value in seeking it out. He tensed, slightly, then, when he saw a man in an officer’s uniform, slumped behind a diner, hands hacked off, stumps bleeding, with cut after cut after cut in his body, eyes rolled back and bleeding from the tongueless mouth. Grisly… William shivered even more, then, before realizing that there was a presence behind him, turning his head slowly with his nerves on high alert. Standing behind him, smiling, with a strange-looking knife in hand, was a boy only a year or two his junior. He wore a green sweater with a yellow stripe across its center, which was stained red like his hands, and a pair of bright, cheerful eyes poked past his brown bangs, perfectly matching the smile on his face. William could’ve sworn he’d seen him somewhere before. “Y-you… Did. Did you kill this man?” “Yep!” The youth answered, twirling the knife around, pointing to the corpse and stepping on his fingers buried in the snow. “He was telling horrible, horrible lies about me, see… Said that I cut his hands off, that it was his fault that he died. Now, I know some people came back, but this is a man I’ve never seen in my life! He pointed a gun at my head here, said he wouldn’t miss when he fired so close, so I didn’t let him. Then, that lie about his hands, his death… I just made it true!” William was confused, his heart rate skyrocketing at the casual way in which this boy paced around as he spoke, twirling his knife. But… He was threatened, by the sound of it, and there was a certain purity, honesty, in the way that he spoke. This mutilated officer had it coming. “W-well… That sounds nerve-wracking. I’m, uh… Sorry you had to go through that.” “Oh, don’t worry for me!” The youth reassured, “sixteen years in this city and counting, you get quite used to seemingly-fine people revealing their true, rotten colors, attacking you when they seem to play the part of something upstanding.” He tilted his head, shaking it. “I can’t stand it at all, but… It makes it all the sweeter to put an end to it, you know?” “I… You’re talking about killing people, you know that, right?” William asked. “That’s… That’s something you can never take back. To put it so lightly…” “Do you have a problem with that?” Very quickly, then, the youth was leaning up close to him, putting the knife near his flesh, and William tensed up, not wanting to hurt this kid as he teased him. “L-look… If any part of me wanted to impede you, or stop you,” William answered, “you would’ve been dead before you could bring that thing close to me. I’m… Still trying to control an ‘ability’ of my own.” “I see, I see… So you’re another Stand User!” The youth pulled back, then, clearly pleased with the nerve William had had to stand still through that attempt to terrify him, to shock him into action. “What do you say we be friends?” The knife vanished, then, and he held out his hand. “My name is Jacob Brown, but you may call me a nickname if you’d like.” William nodded, cautiously accepting and shaking his hand. “Jacob Brown, huh..?” He swore he’d heard that name around before. “Then, uh… I dunno. If you really want a nickname that bad… I dunno. Jack, maybe?” “‘Jack…’ It has a nice ring to it!” The boy agreed, shaking his hand fervently. “And you?” “Call me William Eyelash… Or, uh, any abbreviation, I guess, though nobody really does.” Elsewhere in the College Town, at exactly the same time… Jacob Brown was laying in a snowy park, looking up at the cool sky in the imprint of his own little snow angel, which he’d even made time to give little knife-shaped embeddings through holding ‘Megalo Strike Back’ at just the right angle. His life had continued to go well, as it had been since that fateful day so many months ago, where he’d toned back his killing urges, had still not once taken a life since, so not to disappoint the promise he and his friends had shared with that long-dead artist, having since befriended others and learned more about the mysteries of this place. Los Fortuna was nice… Nice as it was fleeting, and strange. Earlier that morning he’d literally danced between the border of the College Town and the Agricultural District, one foot in an inch of snow, the other on dry grass, then posed triumphantly for Richard Stone to sketch, flexing alongside that new Bert blob which Casey and he-whose-name-ruins-Jacob’s-mood had nursed back to health. Just as he’d started to fondly recall that fine early-morning moment, a pile of snow blinked with a single black dot of an eye, then emerged from a snowbank just meters away from Jack, looking as though it had found something urgent. “Oh? What’s that now?” Jacob sat up, adjusting his jacket, and walked towards the bank in question, clearing away its topmost layer with a single expert swipe of ‘Megalo Strike Back.’ A couple’s mangled, half-melted corpses spilled out in a goopy pile, then, reaching his feet in a grotesque entanglement which Jacob regarded with little more than a sigh, shaking his head. “Sloppy sloppy… Though, I feel like I’ve seen dead bodies like this on the local news…” He turned towards his team’s new cute mascot character, waving him off. “It’s been fun, little one, but I think it may be a bit spicy for you. Go back home and fix yourself some Oops! All Berries and cigarette ash in dishwater… With a little Neapolitan on top of course!” The white blob’s favorite… Though it only ever seemed to eat the vanilla and strawberry. More chocolate ice cream for Jacob, anyway. With that, then, the odd proto-Bert slinked away through the snow, blending in effortlessly as Jacob, in turn, took on the part of a sleuth, imagining a cool hat and pipe and miming them idly as he prepared to look into- Ah. There were footprints in the snow clearly moving away from the bank, deeper into the park. Jacob would start there! A not-so-long trek later, then, Jacob found a tree, whereby the footprints had seemed to end, but he heard shivering, and then somebody dropping down not far behind him in a panic, trying to tepidly back away. Whoever it was, though, froze when Jacob turned his head and gave a smiling grin. Standing behind him, absolutely terrified, was a boy only a year or two his junior. He wore a black bomber jacket with three blue dots going down the left arm and a singular orange dot over the right bosom, blue-dotted pants, and a t-shirt clearly stained either with sweat, melted snow, or both. His demeanor was a timid, terrified one, a pair of eyes like a cornered beast poking past his mess of black hair, perfectly matching the look of mortification on his face. “Uh… I’m… Uh.” “Pardon the intrusion!” Jacob said, cheerfully, “but do you mind if we talk a little bit?” “…” The boy looked like he wanted to die a little bit, stepping backwards again. “My name is Jacob Brown, and I couldn’t help but notice that pair of melted bodies a little ways back. Quite the conversation piece, don’t you think?” “I… I-I.” “Come on now, I won’t get you in trouble and leave you to hang! I don’t do that!” Jacob assured. “All I ask from people is ‘honesty.’ It’s very easy to tell the truth, I think, if people just did it. So… Let’s start with an easy question, to show I don’t mean harm. What’s your name?” “Uh… Ell- I mean, Wil- uh…” The boy paused, as if not used to the answer he was about to give himself. “Eyelash… W-William Eyelash.” “William…” Someone trying on a new name didn’t need to be a lie, Jacob understood. Just a new truth to get used to. “I’ll just call you ‘Billy,’ okay? Okay!” Jacob smiled, and before Billy could comment, continued, “how long have you been in the city? Quite the sight, such localized snow…” “Uh… M-my whole life, basically… Look, please, just. Just leave me alone. Please, don’t keep pressing, I-” “Billy, I’m telling you, I’m trying to help you out here! I know, not everybody can get used to their powers as easy as I did, and when you’re so alone all you can do is run out into a tree, clearly you don’t have anyone helping you through it! So I’ll help you.” “H-help… You. You mean to say-” “Yep!” Jacob admitted, head tilting and tilting and tilting. “Not so long ago, I killed people all the time.” That was Billy’s breaking point, and he immediately turned tail and absolutely booked it away. Even a trained FBI ace probably couldn’t keep up with that. But Jacob Brown was pretty good at running. He skidded to a halt in front of Billy, putting a calming hand on his shoulder. “Hey, c’mon… Bodies aren’t that way. You’ll get caught if you run without cleaning up your mess, or be so focused on running you could trip and fall down an elevator shaft!” That seemed to scare Billy into a sort of forced calm, just as a truly monstrous-looking Stand almost lashed out. There was an odd sort of soothingness to Jacob Brown’s confidence, it seemed. “Let me show you how, now, alright? It’s easy when you know the trick! Then we can take a walk.” Snowman Symmetrical Park (No relation to the park from the last scene) Jacob led Billy by the arm through a particularly artsy snow-covered park, one with several mural walls, ponds, and most notably of all, an almost slavish dedication to every single corner of the place, already in the center of the College town and the Metropolitan area as a whole, being completely symmetrical in its structures. “Nice place, isn’t it?” He asked, letting him go and catch his breath. “Professor York, I remember, talked about it once with Chef CaraMel, I’m sure you’ve had her stuff before… They were saying that there’s a sort of ‘meditative’ quality to this place, a nice place to stand in even spots and just admire the scenery. But also that people get really mad if you mess the symmetry up.” “Y… Yeah…” Billy panted, looking around. “I know about this place, but I’ve never taken time to…” He looked around, then, standing and breathing through his nose. “You know, Jacob… You’re right. This, uh… This place isn’t so bad. And, uh… Y-you’re kinda sorta really scary, but. Thanks, for the help, and, uh. Not judging me for what I can’t control…” “Oh, don’t worry about it!” He reassured with a smile, “you’ll figure it out in time, Billy my friend! Why, even just a year ago, I could still be quite sloppy when I-” He noticed, then, that Billy’s look had immediately become, rather than one of cautious relaxation, one that was more confused, more terrified than ever before, murmuring and muttering incoherently. “Hm? Something the matter, pal-o?” “Me… M… M… Why is… No… Nonononononono what the hell what the HELL?!” William had been leading Jack to much the same place, saying to him when asked, “I dunno why I thought to come here… I guess, uh, this Lou girl who I’ve met a couple times, she came by this restaurant I work at with this friend of hers I forget her name, and… I dunno. She said it was meditative, and I’ve got things on my mind too.” “I see, I see… Heheh,” Jack chuckled, teasing, “I’ve been treating you like this cool older figure, but you’re still figuring everything out for yourself, aren’t you? Though I guess that’s true whether you’re seventeen or forty-seven, right?” “Yeah…” William nodded, hands in London’s perma-borrowed jacket pockets. “Th-that is life… Isn’t it? You never really… Stop learning, or growing, and, uh, some parts of you you’ll be contending with for-” He stopped himself from rambling philosophically, then, seeing that Jack had careened his head to something in the slight distance, where the pair had been walking towards and William hadn’t been looking. “Uh… Something wrong, Jack?” “…something is, William, yes,” the younger knife-boy answered, brandishing his Stand. “Something is… Sus.” Jacob and “Jack” Brown stepped towards the center of the park, staring one another down in perfect sync, looking one another over quizzically, the latter and younger much more tense about it than the other. “Your face… Is mine. But I’m not a twin, or a triplet, or even a funny sextuplet. I would certainly remember that.” Jacob remarked, leaning back. “I understand now what that pulled pork sandwich I cut up earlier was on about, I think… Yes, it doesn’t take a Rick, or even a Morty to figure this out,” Jack retorted, brandishing his knife again. “He mistook and attacked me for something you did, after stealing my face!” “I’ve done no such thing,” Jacob answered in turn, “I was born with this…” He produced his own Stand, then, a knife identical to his own. “And this is the ability of ‘Jacob Brown’ to prove it.” “Y-y-you… You…” Billy, cautiously, chattered as he addressed William, looking him over after seeing the identical Stands. “Do you… Have ‘that’ as well? Haunting you… B-burdening your every-” He couldn’t even bear to say it. William, on his own, might have handled this differently, but with Jack so close, he knew that lying would cause even more of a scary situation than telling the truth. Clearly afraid in his own right, then, he shuddered, nodding. “Y-yes… I have ‘Ocean Eyes’ as well. If… I-if that’s what you’re asking.” “Nngnhghhghghhhh..!” Billy had already begun to clutch his fingers in his head. “G-getting worse, then… Getting worse getting worse gettingworsegettingworse… Even if I control it I’ll never control it. I’m… I’m doomeddoomeddoomeddoomed!” “H-hey,” William raised his voice, “you don’t have to be, I promise! I… I-I have no idea what the hell is going on either, but trust me, you can-” But William knew himself, and knew that Billy would not listen to reason. With a bestial cry, another ‘Ocean Eyes’ appeared, lashing out immediately at ‘Jack’ and attempting to spray William. He, in turn, panickedly yet deliberately summoned his own, instinctively thinking to nullify the highly acidic spray with a thick, viscous, protective material, and both ate one another, and nobody was harmed. “My my, what troublesome friends we’ve made…” Jacob remarked, then, hurriedly grabbing William and attempting to pull him away behind cover. “But hey, I’m ride or die! If Billy is your enemy, then I’ll be too! Maybe we can sort this out if we live, ‘kay?” Then, the pair booked it away, leaving William confused, and Jack turning tail as well. “I won’t believe a word of that lying liar’s plan… That impostor has one of you too, William! C’mon now! Fall back so we can cut them to bits before they melt us! You don’t want to fall to an imitation of your own Stand, right?” Imitation… Impostor… Is. *Is** that what’s going on here?* William pondered, falling back nonetheless to a safer spot, well aware that out in the open was the worst place to be when he’d earned Ocean Eyes’ ire. Looks like even the guy who looks like an older Jack is gonna fight, just… J-just because. He shuddered, then, leaning into the back of a wall. It… I-it’s unavoidable again. Then… He shut his eyes. I see. “True or not, the uncontrolled rage of ‘Ocean Eyes’… I can tell you here and now, Jack. That was me. So maybe… M-maybe this was fate too. To finally truly tame that savage urge… Y-yes. Ocean Eyes is my own.” “Think, Billy! That power of yours is so, so strong,” Jacob pep-talked his new friend from behind the cover of one of the structures within the symmetrical park, “and like how my ‘Megalo Strike Back’ speaks to all that I will cut through, anywhere and everywhere… What does Ocean Eyes say about you?” “Say about… A-about me?” “Yes!” Jacob encouraged. “Make a statement to the world! Cry out in your voice! It can be anything, not just a blind anger that forces you to live deceiving yourself! I’ve killed many times, and I’m good at it, and not a sentence of that will ever stop me from doing good by this city, just as I promised! Follow my lead, and see for yourself what all we can do!” OPEN THE GAME! (credit to magistelles for the match art, here you can see the uncensored version of the art(CW: trypophobia)!) Location: Snowman Symmetrical Park. A public park in the center of Midnight Sun’s College Town, and the Los Fortuna Metropolitan Area as a whole. Realized by Andrew Tiffany and his orange nephew, the place has an avid string of volunteers from around the district dedicated to keeping the architecture and nature of the place in perfect symmetry at all times, down to the last blade of grass and every inch of snow covering it. It has snowed recently, but only in the college district, amounting to about 3 centimeters of snow covering the ground evenly. Right now, however, it’s perfectly empty, aside from the four of you. The area here is 30 by 30 meters with each tile being 3 by three meters. The light blue shapes are 3 meter tall structures that serve as mural art walls. Each wall has some symmetric design. The darker blue hexagon is a man made lake/fountain that is half a meter deep. The green circles are 5m tall trees, their tops are lightly covered in snow and there are decorative ornaments hung on the branches. MFA start at the bottom of the map, as represented by the two brown circles and GYS start at the top of the map as represented by the two white circles. Goal: RETIRE your opponents! Additional Information: For this match you will be controlling two characters, both your own and a parallel version of your opponent. In order to win this deathmatch, you have to beat both people on the other team. Players instinctively know who their partners are and anybody that tries to lie or deceive somebody on who they actually are will immediately be retired by both Jacob and his parallel self. This will be a loss for whichever side tries to pull that. For character writing purposes, note that “Jack” and “Billy” are both exactly one year younger than Jacob and William, and recall being born and raised entirely within Los Fortuna. Despite this fact, the most important moments of their lives, with the exception of all that has happened since the latter two arrived here, met their allies, and began participating in the tournament, have more or less been the same. Being younger and less experienced, Jack and Billy respectively have quickly formed a sort of trust in William and Jacob, and will follow their tactical leads and trust their judgment so long as it isn’t grossly out of character. Their appearances differ slightly, as described in the writeup, but statistically, they are completely identical to their counterparts.
“Say, Jotaro. Do that special trick of yours.” This new friend of yours has a future, whether he realizes it or not, and you wish to see him grow by your side. Take inspiration from strategies and elements of previous matches featuring William Eyelash! (first)(second)
“People can do anything when their lives are at stake!” While you mean to overcome your own past, you care about more than your own personal growth here; you’ve also found some worth in the checkered history of this strange youth. Take inspiration from strategies and elements of previous matches featuring Jacob Brown! (first)(second)
Link to the Official Player Spreadsheet Link to Match Schedule As always, if you would like to interact with the tournament community and be among the first to get updates for the tournament, please feel free to PM a member of our Judge staff for an invite to our Official Discord Server!
Hit piece on Darryl. Other GMs are altruistic, for the game and the players, would never trade a player to get ahead /s Part 1: Daryl Morey, Rafael Stone, and the exploding Rockets “The single raindrop never feels responsible for the flood.” Dec 29 Below is the first half of a story just published to TrueHoop subscribers. To read the whole thing: Subscribe now By HENRY ABBOTT and YARON WEITZMAN SportsCenter @SportsCenter James Harden was asked if he feels better about his situation with the Rockets now than he did before he arrived at camp. "Next question." December 21st 2020 Daryl Morey changed NBA basketball by replacing fragile human assessments with something more calculated. He measured everything and ultimately valued different players, coaches, and styles of play—leading to many unusual bets. For the most part, time has proven him to be brilliant: His Rockets won more than 60 percent of their games and routinely made it deep into the playoffs. If there has been a knock against Morey, it’s that he’s lucid on creating angles and closing deals, but a little blind on things like human feelings and building trust. It has long been discussed as a “lack of chemistry,” but to many who have lived it, the shortcoming feels more profound. “Daryl Morey” says one NBA source who has known him for more than a decade, “ruins lives.” If there’s a “Game of Thrones” harshness to Morey’s Rockets tenure, it is coming full circle now on a team struggling to care enough about each other to function. Billionaire Tilman Fertitta has become the butt of jokes, and one person close to the team says he suspects they are on a path to become the worst team in the NBA. One of the team’s two best players from last season—Russell Westbrook—has already gotten himself traded. The other, James Harden, is making news almost daily for tearing at the fabric of the team by requesting a trade, breaking COVID rules, and reportedly throwing a ball at a young teammate. The team’s struggle with COVID protocols meant they are the only NBA team to date that couldn’t field sufficient players for a game—their season opener had to be postponed. But there’s a deeper story of the Rockets’ infusion of callousness. Daryl Morey moved to Houston in 2006, as the Rockets’ assistant GM. Like many well-to-do Houstonians, Daryl and Ellen Morey purchased a large house—theirs was near Buffalo Bayou, a drainage artery that runs away from reservoirs west of downtown. Then it started pouring. Eight to ten inches of rain flooded more than 3,000 homes in 2006. Hurricane Ike battered nearby Galveston and parts of Houston a couple of years later. In April 2009, several thousand more houses flooded, especially along Buffalo Bayou. A house in a flood zone wants constant care and attention. Before the rain there is the upgrading and maintaining of pumps, valves, and drainage. The storms bring bouts of stress: sandbags, generators, power outages, and mucky cleanup. A few years in, the Moreys—hardly sentimental people—divorced houses altogether. They would face rain storms from a high rise in the Memorial City neighborhood. Once ubers became ubiquitous and readily available, Morey essentially quit cars, too—telling the Wall Street Journal driving was a poor use of his time. (Years later on the Rich Eisen show he explained, “I’m on my phone too much, it’s just too dangerous. For the sake of humanity.”) And besides, many days Morey didn’t need a car at all. Another employee, general counsel Rafael Stone, lived nearby and was happy to drive Morey to work. Morey and Stone got along fine. One Rockets employee at the time remembers them as “best friends.” In a recent Zoom press conference, Stone made a passing comment about Morey damaging his dash board with a foot on a morning commute. “Daryl and I are extremely different people,” Stone added. “We worked well together and became friends because we’re from very different perspectives but oftentimes ended up at the exact same point.” One of Stone’s best friends, Andre Burrell, remembers Stone saying that “Daryl was really cool to him and took him under his wing, that he was getting all sorts of insights.” Both were hired by then-team president George Postolos to bring a certain business acumen to a franchise that had long been defined by the well-liked but hardly cutting-edge Carroll Dawson. A year into Morey’s time in Houston, Dawson was shuffled into a consultant role to make room for Morey to become general manager. It was an agreement Morey secured from then-team governor Leslie Alexander. The Rockets moved on from Dawson as easily as Morey moved on from houses and cars. That was another part of what fused Stone and Morey—an appreciation for the cold transactional nature of things. Many dream of running an NBA team. It’s a little cutthroat, at times. Some college freshmen arrive at school unsure of what they want from their lives. Rafael Stone was not one of those kids. Chris Jones first met Stone back in the fall of 1990. They were freshmen basketball players for Williams College, a Division III liberal arts school in leafy Williamstown, Mass. Even then, Jones—who would go on to live with Stone for three years—could tell that Stone was different. “Raf had his life planned out,” he says. “He was going to play basketball, then go to law school, then he hoped to one day be involved with an NBA team.” Stone grew up in Seattle. His father was a corporate lawyer who had starred at point guard for the University of Washington. This was the path Stone intended to follow. He played the same position and had many of the same dreams. “He was very quick and very savvy,” says Robert Williams, another former teammate, roommate, and longtime friend, “and he looked to shoot first.” He loved basketball, both playing and watching his hometown Sonics. He took the craft seriously but he spent most of his free time studying for his LSATs. He applied to the law schools at Harvard, Stanford, and Yale “because he wanted to get into the three best ones,” says Andre Burrell, another former roommate and longtime friend. All three schools accepted Stone. He chose Stanford. From there he landed a job at the New York City-based corporate law firm Dewey Ballantine. Stone has remained in touch with his roommates in the three decades since. They communicate via text chains, monthly calls, and (like everyone else during the pandemic) Zoom sessions. His friends describe him as fiercely loyal, the type of person who, Jones says, “can come off a bit stand-offish at times, especially if you don’t know him, but once he brings you into his orbit, he’ll do anything for you.” For Jones, a story comes to mind, “one that gets to the heart of who Raf is.” Jones got married in 1999. The next day his in-laws held a reception at their home. The party lasted a few hours. After everyone left, Stone approached Jones’ mother-in-law. “He said, ‘Hey, I’d like to help clean this all up,’” Jones recalls. “Every time I bring up his name, they talk about that.” Burrell recalls a different story, one he believes shows that Stone was always destined for a high-profiled gig. A few years after Stone had joined Dewey Ballantine, both he and Burrell were in Ohio for an event. They went out for drinks one night and, as these things often go, used the time to discuss their respective futures and careers. “He was always really ambitious,” Burrell says, and that night he recalls Stone talking about how he “wanted something different, that he wanted more.” Stone wound up making partner in 2005, at the age of 32. A week later, according to The Houston Chronicle, he quit. The Rockets had offered him the position of general counsel. He called his friends to share the news. “He said it was the chance to live his dream,” Jones says. To Alexander and Postolos, Morey offered vastly more strategic thinking. Much has been made of Morey’s role in basketball’s analytics revolution—leading to an emphasis on 3-pointers and identifying undervalued players from Shane Battier to P.J. Tucker. The team made a lot of trades and won a lot of games. In baseball, the appearance of advanced analytics is called “Moneyball.” It’s about a lot of things—seeing the strike zone, fielding with range—but, no surprise, it’s also about money. Morey entered the NBA as a consultant, advising Celtics ownership on the bottom line. His annual conference takes place at MIT’s business school. A lot of the panels are about maximizing ticket revenue or gambling analytics. NBA lifers who grew up in gymnasiums are aware that, as a boss, Morey is thinking deal-first. Many serious basketball professionals have felt swept aside by the floodwaters of Morey’s strategy. Morey’s crowning Rockets accomplishment was to collect sufficient picks and players to land James Harden in a trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder. Instead of tanking, the Rockets stayed competitive while scraping together trade assets through years of incremental moves that have been compared to those of a Wall Street arbitrage trader. Instead of commodities, though, the Rockets were dealing people, not all of whom relished the process. FiveThirtyEight reports that, over his time running the Rockets, Morey made more trades than any GM (other than his longtime deputy Sam Hinkie, who went on to run the 76ers). Morey’s very first trade was for Jackie Butler and a pick. The pick became Luis Scola, a great Rockets success story. But Butler was cut before playing a game and never played again. Like every NBA player, he has feelings and an agent. There were many Jackie Butlers. Morey sent 72 players packing over his tenure. One rival executive says he has come to avoid calling Morey with trade offers, for fear they will leak to the media. Public pressure might help Morey gain leverage to complete a deal. But the leverage comes at the expense of upsetting both organizations’ stability as players, agents, coaches, and families stress about the future. At some point, Morey figured out a money-saving trick: Almost every NBA coach has a contract that ends in June. That’s when coaching staffs tend to be built for the upcoming season, and that’s when an in-demand assistant like Elston Turner or Jeff Bzdelik might become expensive thanks to the magic of competing offers. Morey’s solution? Rockets assistant coaches were given deals that ended in August, when the rest of the league’s coaching jobs were filled. With nowhere else to go, they didn’t bargain too hard. Last season, Rockets coaches did some back-of-the-envelope calculations and came away believing they were perhaps the 29th- or 30th-highest paid staff. Morey, it has been reported, made $8 million a year by the end of his time in Houston. The Rockets and their fans once romanticized Hakeem Olajuwon or Tracy McGrady. For a while, in the Morey years, it seemed like the new administration would substitute Shane Battier as a favorite. In 2009, Michael Lewis published the essential story of basketball’s Moneyball revolution, called the “no stats all-star,” about Battier. Battier’s geeky mind was a godsend to Morey. Unlike most players, Battier loved Morey’s fat packets of stats and used the intelligence to become a defender who knew all the percentages. Battier solved the essential conundrum of the advanced stats revolution: How do you get the players on board? “It’s so great having Shane on the team,” Morey said in the aisle of one of his early conferences. They talked about everything. When Ron Artest was new to the team, Battier was the one who advised Morey about how to talk to him. The forward came to be so associated with advanced analytics that by the time of the 2011 conference, a giant image of Battier (in a Rockets uniform, guarding Kobe Bryant) was the backdrop of the conference’s main stage. What made it less romantic was that not two weeks before the conference, Morey had traded Battier to the Grizzlies for some draft picks and Hasheem Thabeet.
[OC] The Overly-Long and Probably-Wrong list of the Top Draft Prospects
As a basketball fan, it's always fun to speculate on the NBA Draft prospects. That said, I'd stress the speculate part of that statement. As an outsider with no real access to these players, it's hard to be arrogant and steadfast in our opinions. We're working with about 10% as much information as actual NBA teams. If you feel confident in your analysis based on some highlight tapes of James Wiseman dunking on South Carolina State or LaMelo Ball jacking up shots in the Australian League, god bless you. And if you want to read my amateur analysis, god bless you too. But before you do, remember to check your sodium levels and take these picks with a grain of salt.
BEST PROSPECTS in the 2019-20 NBA DRAFT
(1) SG Anthony Edwards, Georgia Based on pure stats, Anthony Edwards would be one of the least impressive # 1 picks of all time. We're talking about a player who just averaged 19-5-3 on bad shooting splits (40-29-77) on a bad Georgia team. In fact, the Bulldogs didn't even crack .500 (finishing 16-16). All things considered, this isn't the resume of a top overall pick. It's like a kid with a 2.9 GPA applying to Harvard Law. Still, the "eye test" helps Edwards' case in the same way it helped proud Harvard alum Elle Woods. Edwards has a powerful frame (strong and long with a 6'9" wingspan) and a scorer's mentality. He's going to be a handful for NBA wings to contend with, especially when he's going downhill. And while he hasn't shown to be a knockdown shooter, his form looks better than the results suggest. I'd project that he can become an average (35-36%) three-point shooter in time. It may be unfair to label Edwards with the "best case scenario" comparison -- Dwyane Wade, for example -- but it may be just as unfair to liken him to "worst case scenario" comps like Dion Waiters as well. One of the reasons that Waiters is such an inefficient scorer in the NBA is that he's allergic to the free-throw line; he averages 3.1 FTA per 36 minutes. Edwards didn't live at the FT line, but he did get there 5.3 times per game. With more encouragement from an analytical front office or coaching staff, Edwards has the potential to get to the line 7-8 times a game and raise his ceiling in terms of efficiency. The key for Edwards' career is going to be his work ethic and basketball character. As a prospect, he reminds me of Donovan Mitchell; in fact, he's ahead of where Mitchell was at the same age. That said, Mitchell is a natural leader who made a concerted effort to improve his body and his overall game. If Edwards can do the same, he has true All-Star potential. If he walks into the building thinking he's already a superstar, then he may never become one. best fits Anthony Edwards has some bust potential, but he also has true star potential. Given that, it'd be great to see him go to a team that's willing to feature him. Chances are he won't last this long, but he'd be a great fit for Charlotte (#3). The Hornets desperately need a signature star, and Edwards has the chance to be a 20 PPG scorer within a year or two. worst fits If Edwards falls in the draft, he may end up clashing with the talent on the teams in the 4-5 range. Chicago (#4) already has a scoring guard in Zach LaVine. Meanwhile, Cleveland (#5) has already doubled up on scoring guards with Collin Sexton and Darius Garland. Adding a third would be a potential headache, both offensively and defensively. (2) C James Wiseman, Memphis A true center? Gross! What is this, 1970? Traditional big men tend to get treated that way these days. In some ways, they've become the "running backs" of the NBA. They once ruled the draft, but now they have to scrape and claw to climb into the top 5. Still, let's no go overboard here. Even if centers aren't as valuable as they used to be, there's still some value here. Some of the best centers in the game (Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert, Joel Embiid, etc) have helped make their teams staples in the playoffs. Wiseman can potentially impact a team in the same way, especially on the defensive end. He can get beat on switches now and then, but he's about as agile as you can expect out of a kid who's 7'1" with a 7'6" wingspan. Offensively, he has an improving face-up game in addition to being a devastating lob threat. Another reason that I'm comfortable with Wiseman in the top 3 is because he appears to be a smart kid with the will to improve his game. He intends to keep stretching out his range towards three point territory. Even if he can be a passable three-point shooter (in the 33% range), that should help make him a consistent 18-12 player and a fringe All-Star. And if not, then he'll still be a viable starting center. best fits We mentioned Charlotte (#3) as a great fit for Anthony Edwards, and I'd say the same for Wiseman here. His game complements the more dynamic P.J. Washington well; between the two of them, they'd have the 4-5 spot locked up for years. While Wiseman's best chance to be a star may come in Charlotte, we don't know if he truly has that type of aggressive upside. The more likely scenario is him being a pretty good starting center with an emphasis on defense. In that case, he makes some sense in Golden State (#2) and Atlanta (#6). worst fits Apparently James Wiseman doesn't want to go to Minnesota (#1), which makes sense given the presence of Karl-Anthony Towns. If he slips, Chicago (#4) may also be an odd fit. Wiseman is a better prospect than Wendell Carter Jr., but they're not terribly dissimilar. The new Bulls administration didn't select Carter, but it still feels too early to give up on a recent # 7 pick. (3) PF/C Onyeka Okongwu, USC (HIGHER than most expert rankings) Another big man? I may be showing my age here. Still, I'm going to stick to my guns and suggest Onyeka Okongwu is a top 3 prospect in the class for some of the same reasons we ranked James Wiseman so highly. In fact, Okongwu is arguably an even better defensive prospect than Wiseman. While he doesn't have the same size (6'9" with a 7'1" wingspan), he's more switchable. He projects as a prowling, shot-blocking panther, not dissimilar to Bam Adebayo on Miami. Offensively, he flashes some solid skill here and there, although it's unlikely he'd get to Adebayo's level as a playmaker. Another aspect that should help Okongwu is his selflessness. In high school, he played for Chino Hills alongside stars Lonzo and LaMelo Ball. While there, he blended in and did the dirty work for the LaVar Traveling Circus. It's likely that Okongwu will play a similar role in the NBA, complementing a star perimeter player. While Okongwu may not have All-Star upside, I don't see much downside here. I'd be surprised if he's not a long-time starter at the center position (with the potential to play some PF if his shooting range improves.) best fits The most natural fits for Onyeka Okongwu mirror the best fits for James Wiseman. There’s a chance he may slip further than Wiseman too. Washington (#9) should be salivating if that’s the case. worst fits As a low-usage player, there aren't a lot of terrible fits for Okongwu on the board. However, Detroit (#7) already has Blake Griffin on a long-term deal and may re-sign Christian Wood as well. Given that, there wouldn't be much room for Okongwu barring a Griffin trade. (4) PG LaMelo Ball, U.S./Australia. (LOWER than most expect rankings) Every draft pick is an inherent gamble, but there's a difference between gambling in blackjack and gambling in Roulette. To me, LaMelo Ball is more of the latter. No doubt, there's a chance that you may get lucky and "win big" with LaMelo Ball. He has great height for the position at 6'6"/6'7", and he makes some exceptional passes that illustrate a rare court vision. ESPN's Draft Express team ranks him as the # 1 prospect overall, and I take that seriously. Those guys were way ahead of the curve on calling Luka Doncic a transcendent talent at a time when most others were still skeptical. At the same time, I'd say there is a sizable downside here as well. In fact, I'd estimate that there's a greater than 50/50 chance that Ball is a "bust" based on his current draft status. LaMelo Ball put up good raw numbers this past season in the NBL -- 17.0 points, 7.6 rebounds, 6.8 assists -- but he was in a situation specifically designed for him to put up good numbers. The efficiency tells a different story, as his shooting splits (38-25-72) look worrisome. Yes, height helps on defense, but it doesn't matter much if you're not locked in on that end. And yes, highlight-reel passes and super-deep threes are fun to watch, but they're not a path to consistency on offense. As Ball makes the jump to the NBA, he may smack hard into a wall and crash into the water like was on Wipeout. There's a chance he'll be among the worst players (from an advanced stats perspective) as a rookie. So what? We expect most rookies to struggle, right? That's true, but I'd be nervous about how LaMelo Ball and his camp would respond to those initial struggles. Again, I've never met the kid and have no real basis for this, but media interviews make him seem a little immature. That's totally understandable for a 19 year old, but it's not ideal for a 19 year old who's about to get handed the keys to an NBA franchise. If he struggles out of the gates, will he start to lose confidence? Will LaVar Ball start to make waves? Will the media gleefully tear him to shreds? No clue. And if I'm picking in the top 3, I'd prefer to have more confidence than question marks. best fits If we treat LaMelo Ball as a developmental project, then I'd prefer he land with a team like Chicago (#4). New coach Billy Donovan is a former PG himself, and spent decades working with young kids at the college level. If they slow play Ball's development, we may see the best of him down the road. Detroit (#7) also makes sense. Coach Dwane Casey has a pretty good reputation in player development himself, and he has a solid bridge PG in Derrick Rose to help buy Ball some time. worst fits Cleveland (#5) is an obviously wonky fit based on the current roster. I'd also assert that Charlotte (#3) is a poor fit as well. While the team desperately needs a signature star, they don't have the type of supporting cast that would be conducive to him right now. And if he struggles as a rookie, then coach James Borrego and the whole front office may be cleaned out. If that happens, a new administration would be inheriting a franchise player that they didn't pick in the first place. (5) SF/PF Deni Avdija, Israel The NBA tends to be reactionary when it comes to the draft, which can be particularly impactful for international prospects. Their stock tends to swing up and down more violently than a ride at Action Park. There was a ton of skepticism about Euros when Dirk Nowitzki came along. When he hit, the NBA got so excited they drafted Darko Milicic at # 2. Eventually that excitement wore off as the busts started to pile up again. But when Latvian Kristaps Porzingis looked like the real deal, it helped reverse that narrative and helped Dragan Bender go # 4 the following year. In terms of that up-and-down timing, Deni Avdija stands to benefit. He's coming into the NBA on the heels of an incredible sophomore campaign from Luka Doncic. No one thinks that Avdija can be a superstar like Doncic, but teams aren't as wary of international wings (specifically white wings) these days. Avdija should go somewhere in the top 10 if not the top 5. In my mind, that's justified. He's 6'9", which should allow him to play either the SF or PF positions. He hasn't shown to be an excellent shooter yet, but he should eventually be solid there. He's better suited as a playmaker and passer, and he can also use his size and skill to convert on slashes around the rim. I've seen some comparisons to Lamar Odom before, although that may be optimistic. More likely, he'll be a 4th or 5th starter. His experience as a pro should help toward that end, as he's used to working hard and fitting in on a team of vets. best fits If you project Deni Avdija to just "fit in" and be a solid starter, then he'd make sense on a team like Golden State (#2). He could effectively play the role of Harrison Barnes or old Andre Iguodala for them. If the intention is to make him more of a featured player, then the Knicks (#8) would be interesting. In that market, he has real star potential. worst fits I don't love the fit for Avdija in Charlotte (#3), where he may duplicate some of P.J. Washington's talents. Atlanta (#6) and Phoenix (#10) have also invested in young SF-PFs recently, so Avdija may find himself scraping for time there. (6) SG/SF Devin Vassell, Florida State (HIGHER than most expert rankings) Every single NBA team needs 3+D wings. They thirst for them like a dying man in the desert. And then, when a legitimate 3+D wing comes along, they often ignore them in favor of splashier players at other positions. Part of the issue is that low-usage 3+D wings aren't going to put up monster stats. That's certainly true of Devin Vassell, who averaged a modest 12.7 points this past year. Still, you have to go deeper than the pure numbers alone and consider the context. Florida State had a stacked and balanced team. In fact, Vassell's 12.7 PPG was the highest on the roster (and came in only 28.8 minutes.) There's more in the tank here than we've seen so far. He can hit the three (42% and 42% from deep in his two years), and he shows a good feel for the game (2:1 assist/turnover ratio.) Vassell shows even more potential on the defensive end. He's currently listed at 6'7" with a 6'10" wingspan, but he looks even longer than that to my eye. He's tenacious and disruptive (1.4 steals, 1.0 blocks) without being out of control. Presumably, he should be a good defender at either the SG or SF spot. In a sense, Vassell's the prototype for a 3+D wing. To be fair, I don't anticipate him being a great shooter at the next level. His FT% was iffy, and he's apparently been tweaking his shot during the draft process. Still, if he can be a viable shooting threat in the way that Josh Richardson is (an inconsistent shooter who averages around 36%), then he should be a solid starter for an NBA team. That may not sound like something worthy of a top 5 pick, but the high "floor" helps him in this case. He also appears to have a strong character and work ethic, making him feel like an even safer bet. best fits Devin Vassell's skill set would fit on virtually any NBA roster -- but his perceived lack of upside may keep him from going as high as my personal ranking. If he does, then Cleveland (#5) would be a nice fit given their lack of big wings and their lack of defense. Defensive-challenged Washington (#9) would also make sense; Vassell tends to be listed as a SG but he should have enough size to play the SF for them. worst fits You can never have too many 3+D wings, but it may be a duplication to put Devin Vassell on the same team with Mikal Bridges in Phoenix (#10). (7) PG Tyrese Haliburton, Iowa State One of the reasons I'd have to be specific about a fit with a player like LaMelo Ball is that he needs the ball in his hands to maximize his potential. That's true for most lead guards. Given that, it's a nice change of pace to see a prospect like Tyrese Haliburton come along. He's listed as a PG and he can perform those duties. This past season, he averaged 15.2 points and 6.5 assists per game. But he ALSO can operate as an off-the-ball player. As a freshman, he did exactly that, effectively working as a wing player and a glue guy on offense. His three-point shot looks wonky, but he converted 43% as a freshman and 42% as a sophomore. If that translates, he can be an effective spacer as well. Haliburton's versatility also extends to the defensive end. He's 6'5" with an incredible 7'0" wingspan, allowing him to guard either PG or SGs. Like Devin Vassell, he also puts those tools to good use. Either one is an incredible athlete, but they're disruptive and locked in on that end. I'd expect Haliburton to be one of the better guard defenders in the NBA. All in all, you may ask: why isn't this guy ranked HIGHER? The skill set would justify that. At the end of the day I don't see elite upside here (maybe George Hill?) because he may have some trouble getting his shot off in a halfcourt offense. Still, he's one of the safer prospects overall and a kid that you'd feel good betting on. best fits The New York Knicks (#8) may bring in a big-name guard like Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook, but if they stick with the rebuild then Tyrese Haliburton makes loads of sense. He can share playmaking duties with R.J. Barrett, and he can help Tom Thibodeau establish a defensive culture. He'd also make sense for Detroit (#7) and even Atlanta (#6). While the Hawks have Trae Young locked in at PG, Haliburton can play enough SG to justify 30+ overall minutes. worst fits Obviously any team that doesn't have room for a PG OR SG would be a problem here. Cleveland (#5) and Washington (#9) are the clearest examples of that. While Haliburton could theoretically guard some SFs, it's not the best use of his talent. (8) PG Killian Hayes, France If NBA centers are like NFL running backs, then point guards / lead playmakers may be like quarterbacks. There's positive and negatives to that comparison. Obviously, a good lead guard can immediately boost your team. At the same time, you don't really need more than one. And if you're not "the guy," then your impact is going to be limited. Given that, there's a high bar to being a starting PG in the NBA. You have to be really, really friggin' good. According to many experts, Killian Hayes is exactly that. Physically he's what you want in the position, with a 6'5" frame. He averaged 16.8 points and 7.8 assists per 36 playing in Germany this year for a team that had a few former pros like Zoran Dragic. The Ringer has him # 1 overall. Personally, I haven't completely bought into that hype yet. I can't claim to have season tickets to Ratiopharm Ulm, but when I watch highlights I don't really see ELITE traits here. He's not incredibly explosive, he's not a great shooter, he's over-reliant on his left hand. I have no doubt that he has the upside to be a good starter, but I don't think we've seen enough (or at least, I haven't) to make me confident in that projection. best fits Chicago (#4) and Detroit (#7) appear to be the most obvious fits for a potential star guard like Killian Hayes. And while the Knicks may have been underwhelmed by a French PG before, he would make sense for them at #8 as well. worst fits Teams with lead guards locked in -- Golden State (#2), Cleveland (#5), for example -- would be obviously problematic fits for Hayes. While he has the size to play some shooting guard defensively, he has a ways to go before he's a sharpshooting spacer. (9) SG/SF Aaron Nesmith, Vanderbilt (HIGHER than most expert rankings) Back when I was single, I dated a girl who presumably viewed me as a "developmental prospect." She'd always tell me how cool I'd look if I got some new jeans. How hot I'd be if I lost some weight. After a while, reality set in. It ain't happening, honey. What you see is what you get. The whole transformation idea may have worked with Chris Pratt, but it's not going to work with schlubby ol' Zandrick Ellison. Sometimes it feels like NBA teams view prospects in the same delusional way. Josh Jackson can be a superstar -- if he develops his shot! Isaac Okoro can be a great pick -- if he becomes a great shooter! IF IF IF. We tend to forget that it's not that easy for a leopard to change his spots or for a player to suddenly develop a shooting stroke. It may have worked with Kawhi Leonard, but it's not working with most players. Given that, we should value players who already have developed that skill. Aaron Nesmith is one of the best shooters in the draft -- right here, right now. He shot 52% from three and 83% from the line this past season. There's a sample size issue there (he only played 14 games prior to injury), but his shooting form looks fluid and suggests that he should be a legitimate 38-40% shooter from deep. While Nesmith isn't a great athlete or defender, his 7'0" wingspan should help him hang at either the SG or SF spots. All in all, we're talking about a player who should be a starter, or at the very least a high-level rotational player. best fits Aaron Nesmith isn't going to put a team on his back, but he can help carry the load offensively given his shooting ability. That should make him a good fit for a team like New Orleans (#13) as they look to replace J.J. Redick down the road. He'd also be an excellent fit with Orlando (#16) as they eye more shooters/scorers. worst fits It's hard to find a bad fit for a good shooting wing, but there are a few teams that may not have starting positions available. Phoenix (#10) already has Devin Booker and a few solid young SFs. Sacramento (#12) already has Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic (presuming they retain them.) (10) PG/SG R.J. Hampton, U.S/N.Z. (HIGHER than most expert rankings) After that rant about delusions of grandeur with development prospects, let me try and talk you into a raw developmental prospect. Like LaMelo Ball, R.J. Hampton went to play in the NBL during his gap year after high school. They were both top 10 prospects going in, but their stocks diverged from there. LaMelo Ball put up big numbers and locked himself into top 3 status. Hampton didn't showcase much (8.8 points per game on 41-30-68 shooting splits) and may drop out of the lottery altogether. But again, I'd caution us to consider context here. LaMelo Ball went to a bad team where he could jack up shots. Hampton played on a contending team that didn't spoon-feed him minutes. Given that limited sample, I'm falling back on the "eye test" here. No doubt, Hampton's shot is a problem. He's a poor shooter now, and it may be 2-3 years before he straightens it out. At the same time, his size and explosion jumps out at you, particularly when he's attacking the basket. He also appears to be a mature and charismatic young man. That combo -- physical talent + basketball character -- tends to be a winning formula. There's some chance Hampton turns out to be a genuine star as a scoring lead guard. There's also a sizable chance he busts. Still, it's the type of gamble that teams in the late lottery should be considering. best fits In a PG-rich class, it'd be bold for Detroit (#8) to reach on R.J. Hampton. Still, he would fit there, as the team could groom him behind Derrick Rose for another year or two until he's ready to take over for major minutes. Any team that can afford him the luxury of patience would be a nice landing spot, even if it means going later in the draft to places like Boston (#14, #26) or Utah (#23.) worst fits I'd be less bullish on R.J. Hampton in situations where he may have to play early and take his lumps. The N.Y. Knicks (#8) have struggled to develop point guards Frank Ntilkina and Dennis Smith already, and a new coaching staff doesn't make those concerns go away. Hampton would also have lower upside on teams that already have scoring guards locked in, like Sacramento (#12) or Portland (#16). (11) PF Obi Toppin, Dayton (LOWER than most expert rankings) When Obi Toppin sees the list of names ahead of him, he should be stewing with rage. He's arguably the most productive player on the entire board. This past season at Dayton, he averaged 20.0 points on 63% shooting from the field. He's a good athlete and dunker, and he even hit 39% of his threes. At 6'9", he's a natural PF but he could theoretically play some SF or C too if need be. What else does a guy need to do to go in the top 5?? But while Toppin checks all the boxes on paper, I'm a little more skeptical. In fact, he reminds me a lot of Arizona PF Derrick Williams, who went # 2 in the 2011 draft. Many pundits thought Williams was the best player in the class, fresh on the heels of an awesome sophomore season that saw him average 19.5 points per game on 60% shooting and 57% (!) from three. The trouble is: Williams benefited from a small sample size from 3 that year (74 total). And while he was athletic in the dunking sense, he didn't have the hip movement to guard 3s or 4s effectively. We see some of the same traits play out here with Toppin. He dominated this past season as a (22 year old) sophomore. Still, I'm doubtful that his three-point shooting is as good as the numbers suggest. I'm doubtful that his run-and-dunk athleticism translates to the defensive end, where he often looks stiff when changing direction. I can see a scenario where Toppin is a scoring big in the mold of a John Collins, but it's more likely to me that he'll be a scorer off the bench instead. best fits While I'm cool on Obi Toppin myself, I fully admit that I could be wrong and he may just end up being Rookie of the Year. That may happen if he plays on a team like Washington (#9) where his guards will be able to take a lot of pressure off and give him good opportunities to score. Cleveland (#5) would also make some sense if they trade Kevin Love. worst fits If Toppin's defense is going to be bad, then he'd be a poor fit with Atlanta (#6). I also don't see much of a fit with Sacramento (#12) given the presence of Marvin Bagley III. In the long run, both may end up being smallball 5s. (12) SF Isaac Okoro, Auburn (LOWER than most expert rankings) We've all had this experience before. You'll go see a movie that you hear everyone rave about and you come away... underwhelmed. It's fine. It's OK. But you just don't get all the fuss about it. Right out of that Silver Linings Playbook comes Isaac Okoro. His stats don't jump off the page: 12.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 0.9 blocks. He's allegedly a great defensive player, but his dimensions (6'6" with a 6'8" wingspan) don't suggest "stopper." Worse yet, he's a poor shooter from distance (29% from three, 67% from the line.) The last time I got this sense of "meh-ness" was Jarrett Culver last year. I didn't understand how he went in the top 5, and I'm not going to understand how Okoro goes in the top 10 this year. To be clear, I don't think Okoro (or Culver) is a BAD prospect, just that they're both overrated by the community. Okoro is definitely a strong kid who is active around the rim. He's a live body. He could theoretically improve his shooting and become a starter. Still, "potential starter" is not something that I want in a top 10 pick. best fits While I don't love Isaac Okoro myself, I can see some good fits on the board. Washington (#9) could use some thicker wings who can play solid defense. Portland (#16) is incredibly desperate for capable wings themselves. worst fits With Okoro, I don't necessarily think the worst fits are a matter of skill set as much as expectation. If he goes as high as Chicago (#4) or Cleveland (#5), I suspect he'll disappoint in terms of the returns and garner some resentment from the fan base. (13) SG/SF Josh Green, Arizona As oddly overrated as Isaac Okoro is (in my mind), Josh Green is oddly underrated. Okoro tends to go about 10 spots higher in mock drafts, but they seem nearly identical in terms of a head-to-head comparison. In fact, I had to go back and forth about which I'd rank higher. They're both good athletes for their position and should be backend starters at the next level. Okoro is thicker and better around the rim, while Green is further along as a shooter. Overall I leaned to Okoro because he had the size to match up with bigger SFs and has a little more of a bullying scorer gene in him, but it was a close race. In fact, you can argue that Josh Green's selflessness will actually benefit him in the NBA. He's a "team guy," with an underrated passing ability and basketball IQ. The stats don't jump off the pages in that regard (2.6 assists, 1.6 turnovers), but he was also playing with a good college PG in Nico Mannion. As he moves to the NBA, he's unlikely to have the ball much either, but he projects to be an all-around glue guy who can help on both ends. best fits As with Isaac Okoro, Portland (#16) could be a nice landing spot for a solid wing player. And while New Orleans (#13) has a lot of athleticism already, it never hurts to have another viable wing. They tended to play small at the SG-SF spot, which hurt their defense overall. Playing Green could help them when they slide Brandon Ingram over to the 4 and Zion Williamson at the 5. worst fits I don't see many "bad" fits for Josh Green on the board, but you'd prefer that he went to a team that intended to make him a part of the future. Minnesota (#17) may not be able to do that if they already have Jarrett Culver and Josh Okogie. Brooklyn (#19) may not be looking for long-term projects since they're in a "win now" mode. (14) PG Tyrell Terry, Stanford Tyrell Terry is rocketing up draft boards on account of his stellar shooting ability (41% from 3, 89% from the line) and his better-than-expected measurement of 6'3". It's only natural that pundits would start comparing him to stud shooters like Steph Curry. That said, not every stud shooter is Steph Curry. Some are Seth Curry. Some are Quinn Cook. There's a slight chance Terry breaks out as a good starter, but there's a better than average chance he peaks as a rotational player instead. Still, he should be an asset to a team as a spacer, particularly if they run their offense through a playmaking forward (like a LeBron James). And in case you're wondering, no he is NOT related to Jason Terry, although some of their skill sets do overlap as scoring guards with deep range. best fits If we presume that Tyrell Terry can be a Seth (not Steph) type player, then adding him to Dallas (#18) makes sense. He can develop behind Seth for a year or two as he gains weight, and then help complement Luka Doncic as a spacer after that. Similarly, he makes sense for Philadelphia (#21) as well. We'd still lock Ben Simmons into the starting PG role, but Terry could play alongside him in lineups or be used as a sparkplug off the bench. worst fits Teams that may be eyeing Tyrell Terry as a surefire starter will have to be careful. For example, Phoenix (#10) needs an heir apparent for Ricky Rubio, but a Terry + Devin Booker combo may be problematic on the defensive end. Some other teams -- Brooklyn (#19) and Denver (#22) -- already have sharpshooter guards, so they don't have as strong of a need for this type of player. (15) PF Aleksej Pokusevski, Serbia We mentioned that LaMelo Ball may be the biggest boom/bust prospect in the class, likening him to gambling on Roulette. Enter Aleksej Pokusevski. "Gambling" may not even be doing it justice. This is like risking your family fortune on a bag of magic beans. But hey, that worked for Jack, and it could work for an NBA team as well. I have a friend who works in coaching who raved about Pokusevski and considers him a top 10 prospect overall. After all, this is a legit 7'0" player with true perimeter skills. Playing for Olympiacos' development team, he averaged 16.7 points, 12.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 2.0 steals, and 2.8 blocks per 36 minutes. He hasn't even turned 19 years old yet, giving him an enormous amount of upside. Still, he scares the hell out of me. He's listed at 7'0" and 200 pounds, with narrow shoulders that make you doubt how much weight he'll be able to carry in the long term. His body type doesn't remind you of any current NBA forwards; it reminds you of two kids wearing a trenchcoat. All in all, Pokusevski seems like a great prospect to invest in, presuming you don't have to withdraw from the bank until 2023 or 2024. To that end, teams should only consider them if they feel confident in their long-term job security. best fits If the goal is to send Aleksej Pokusevski to a good, stable organization, then you can't do much better than San Antonio (#11). Even if Gregg Popovich retires from coaching, R.C. Buford should be around to help the next coach (Becky Hammon? Will Hardy? R.C.'s son Chase?). And if the goal is to find a good stable GM, Sam Presti and Oklahoma City (#25) would be a great home as they prepare for a long-term rebuild. worst fits Orlando (#15) always values length, but they have limited space left in the frontcourt and limited leg room left on that poor charter plane. I wasn't kidding when I said this post was "overly" long. The rest of the top 20 got cut off because of a length limit. I'll try to include them in the comment section.
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