Welcome to the week 14 Official NFL Power Rankings! With circus catches and beatdowns alongside great games, there was plenty to discuss even before a MNF Scorigami that might already be airing on ESPN classic. 32/32 Reporting

#	Team	Δ	Record	Comment
1.	Chiefs	--	12-1	The Dolphins gave the Chiefs all they could handle in the first quarter of Sunday's game, but the Chiefs once again proved that when they are focused, they are the most dangerous team in the NFL. Travis Kelce, the NFL's leading receiver currently, had another monster game showing why he's a future hall of famer. However, after having five 10+ point wins in the first eight weeks of the season, the Chiefs last five wins have all been won by one score. Will this trend ultimately matter come playoff time? It's hard to argue with results, as the Chiefs 12-1 record is the best record through 13 games in franchise history. The ultimate barometer for the Chiefs is this week as they travel to play the Saints, hopefully with Drew Brees. Many questions will be answered in this clash of two top five teams.
2.	Packers	+2	10-3	There always seems to be one Lions-Packer game a year that ends up being some kind of adventure. Rodgers and Adams were as good as ever but the Lions kept on lingering throughout the game. Mason "Silver Fox" Crosby nailed an insurance 58 yard field goal with 3:30 to play and made a touchdown-saving tackle on the immediate kickoff. Aside from Crosby, the special teams really leave a lot to be desired, especially after the hands team almost allowed a onside kick recovery (c'mon y'all I don't need Bostic flashbacks). Packers officially won the division game and are now the projected 1 seed, which is pretty neat ngl. Onto a Saturday game I guess?
3.	Bills	+2	10-3	For a team that was searching desperately in 2019 for a signature win, the 2020 Bills have found them everywhere they turn. This team has had one of the toughest schedules in the league, but except for a couple games they've shown up every time they've had to. This is the second-best team in the conference. The Bills bandwagons are circling now. Josh Allen's extending his baseball glove-sized hand. He says "get in nerds, we're goin' to the Super Bowl."
4.	Saints	-1	10-3	This loss = Hurts. Dennis Allen seemingly had no answers for the rookie QB and then Miles Sanders piled on as well. "All the things we didn't want to allow happen, happened in that game." This was Sean Payton's post-game assessment and it's fair. Taysom Hill had an acceptable statline but it hides how sloppy he looked on the field. The defense struggled with its assignment to contain Hurts and keep him from getting outside the pocket - a worrying sign considering the next QB on the schedule.
5.	Steelers	-3	11-2	The Steelers schedule has been insane. 6 days between NYG and DEN. 14 days between HOU and PHI. 10 days between JAX and BAL. But with that BAL game, the Steelers played them, WFT and BUF in 12 days. 3 games in 12 days. The team is out of LBs and OL. This has been a challenging season for everyone, but this is unprecedented. The Steelers have 8 days until CIN, then 6 days until IND. 10 out of 16 games played with an irregular schedule? You can argue the drops are kicking their ass, but this schedule has been brutal. No wonder they've lost 2 straight.
6.	Rams	--	9-4	Imagine only scoring 3 points in a game.
7.	Colts	+1	9-4	Kenny Moore is a player underrated by national media but massively valuable to the Colts. GM Chris Ballard made re-signing him a priority after his breakout 2018 season. Moore has been a reliable performer throughout his tenure as a Colt and added an exclamation point with his insane one-handed interception on Sunday.
8.	Titans	+1	9-4	Derrick Henry had his second 200+ yard 2 TD game against the Jaguars on Sunday. The performance made Henry the 7th player to rush for 1,500+ yards and 14+ TDs through 13 games.
9.	Seahawks	+1	9-4	Nothing cures ~~suicidal thoughts~~ losing like playing the Jets, baby. Sunday was never much of a game, as it was all Seahawks all day. Russell Wilson threw for 4 touchdowns, Jamal Adams broke the single season sack record for defensive backs, and Geno Smith got to play a full quarter against the team that drafted him. What a way to get over a bad loss to the Giants. Up next the Seahawks will take on their final NFC East opponent of the season; Football Team.
10.	Ravens	+2	8-5	This ranker is a brown man, writing about how Lamar Jackson lost 20 pounds dropping some brown, dropping a TD to Brown, to go ahead against the Browns. They go for two. So in response, K-hunt ties the game, 42-42. In response, the Llama sets up the GOAT to nail a 54-yarder, 16th game winner of his career! To say nothing else of the game -- 9 total fucking rushing touchdowns, tying a record held since two defunct teams played each other before anyone on reddit was born... and Jackson runs for a MNF QB record 124 yards -- but still gets all the clutch plays done with his arm, with this middling group of receivers. The even greater news amidst all this is that the schedule doesn't look so bad in the closing stretch, and inspired play like this past Monday from the offense will ease the burden of the Ravens' gradually depleting secondary. Best wishes to Trace McSorely who made an extremely commendable effort to set them up for Lamar's return.
11.	Browns	-4	9-4	Did you bet the over? The Browns and Ravens combined for 89 points in an absolute rollercoaster of a game. While they did not win, the Browns have shown they are contenders. With two games to go a real shot at the playoffs is on the table. The Browns will face the Giants in another prime time game.
12.	Buccaneers	-1	8-5	The Buccaneers pulled off a 26-14 win over the Vikings, bringing their playoff chances to 94%. Vikes kicker Dan Bailey channeled his inner Gary Anderson to win the Bucs' game ball on an 0/3 kicking performance with an additional missed XP. Rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. played a disruptive game against his dad's former team and is looking like he has the potential to be one of the league's next great safeties. With only interim coaches to close out the remaining three games of the season, the Bucs should have smooth sailing into the Wild Card round.
13.	Dolphins	--	8-5	There are no consolation prizes in the NFL, but a single score loss to the best team in the league while the backup waterboy is lining up in the slot is about as close to a one as you'll ever get. While he was able to pull off the win, even Patrick Mahomes couldn't keep this ball-hawking defense from getting a hold of the ball, often. And at some point, if people don't start talking about Xavien Howard in the DPOY conversation, he's just going to go intercept the damned award himself. Hopefully, the long, long list of injured Dolphins get well soon.
14.	Cardinals	+1	7-6	A monster day from Haason Reddick and the defense finally put the Cardinals back on the winning track. Breaking a franchise record with 5 sacks was one thing, but getting all the turnovers was huge. Hopefully the offense feeds off of it and has a good week in preparing for a big game with Philly that has huge playoff implications. It will take a complete team effort to beat Philly with Jalen Hurts starting fresh of a win against the Saints.
15.	Raiders	-1	7-6	The Raiders looked really bad against the Colts, just like they have for the better part of the last 6 weeks. Luckily Gruden finally made the call to fire Pauly G, something fans have been calling for for the past 2 seasons. Only time will tell if it's too little, too late. Every game from here on out is a must win if the Raiders want to make the playoffs.
16.	Washington FT	+3	6-7	Washington is finding ways to win instead of finding ways to lose. The offense was not able to score a TD so the defense went ahead and spotted them 14 points. Chase Young notches his first TD and continues to prove his worth as the 2nd overall pick as a game wrecker.
17.	Vikings	--	6-7	Dalvin Cook became the first back to rush for over 100 yards against the Bucs in over 20 games, but the Vikings were unable to convert long drives into points as Dan Bailey went 0/4 on field goals and extra points. Couple that with some questionable officiating, the Vikings' banged up front seven generating zero pressure on Tom Brady and plenty of self-inflicted wounds and it all adds up to a real tough loss that knocks the Vikings down from wild card favorites to playoff long shots.
18.	Bears	+5	6-7	The Bears finally snapped their six-game losing streak by rolling over the Texans without much difficulty. Trubisky attempted one throw longer than 20 yards.
19.	Patriots	-3	6-7	Los Angeles, is a land of contrasts - In a span of four days the Patriots' hopes for a postseason were revived and then unceremoniously squashed. Run Defense, Offensive Line, Cam and the Receivers, There just are too many holes to cover up with week to week coaching, this team needs some reworking over the offseason. The Pats end the season with the division as always, lets hope to fuck someone’s season or seeding up. And also the Jets.
20.	49ers	-2	5-8	The 49ers defense did their job, holding the Washington offense to a total of 9 points, but the offense had two takeaways brought back for touchdowns and could not recover. The team looks to right the ship this week against the Cowboys.
21.	Broncos	+5	5-8	Drew Lock put up the third-highest passer rating in team history — behind a couple guys you may know. In the battle of 4-8's, the Broncos somehow managed to not blow a sizeable fourth-quarter lead and emerge victorious. Winning the game but losing The Hunt for a Better Draft Pick. Will the team remain in purgatory? Stay tuned.
22.	Giants	-2	5-8	It’s a real joy to watch the rest of the teams in the up-for-grabs NFC East secure wins, with one being against a top-5 team, all while watching your team play so poorly they start setting franchise records. At least we can say the hype was fun while it lasted, right?
23.	Falcons	-1	4-9	Outplayed by a team whose most impressive win is a tossup between the Bengals, Jaguars, and Jets? Check. Outcoached by special teams ace Anthony Lynn? Check. Ten point lead blown, two interceptions with under five minutes left, double check. Good thing age is just a number for the 32nd youngest team in the league.
24.	Panthers	-3	4-9	I'm not sure where the Panthers go from here. Coach Rhule has said that he isn't going to do the team and fans a disservice by beginning to evaluate players, which means that we're going to see more of Teddy Bridgewater (who is 0-7 in one score games this season) crumble at the end of the game. Playing at Lambeau in primetime in December is one of the hardest things a team can do, and it's not going to be an easy test for the Panthers, who so far have shown that they can't win close games, nor can they defend the pass (23rd in passing defense). It's going to be tough sledding, but hopefully Jeremy Chinn can continue his torrid pace and run his way into DROY.
25.	Eagles	+3	4-8-1	Jalen Hurts delivered the spark the Eagles needed to upset the Saints and spread 'quarterback controversy' all over the city of brotherly love. While the season remains a disappointment, the dual running threat of Hurts and Sanders could be interesting to watch going forward, and the NFC Least remains wide-open with 2 divisional games left on the 2020 menu.
26.	Lions	-1	5-8	Even with a loss, Interim HC Darrell Bevell showed that his Lions are here to compete. This game was never out of hands, and the Lions kept it close the entire time. There are still plenty of woes on Defense, but the Offense continued to ball out as expected. With two TD's coming from the run game (Swift and Kerryon), there is already something to look forward to next year. Lately the team has been able to trust the run on short yardage and redzone carries and it has helped the team with consistency in the red zone. Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers is a QB that can carve up a weak secondary... so that didn't go great. There's around a 1% chance of the Lions getting a playoff spot, not unheard of, but it'll be tough if Stafford's injury progresses and we lose him for the season. #DefendTheDen
27.	Chargers	--	4-9	First of all, props to Falcons Twitter for this gem before the game, and it played out exactly as expected. Both teams did their best to try giving it away at the end, but the Chargers ended up on the winning side this time around. The Chargers had their hiccups again but there were improvements across the board; Justin Herbert's 81.8% completion percentage is his highest of the season, the defense came away with 3 INTs, and special teams probably had their best day. The Chargers get a short week before a Thursday Night tilt in Las Vegas.
28.	Texans	-4	4-9	The Texans are lucky that Paxton is the Texas AG, otherwise they would have had the biggest blowout loss in the state this past week.
29.	Cowboys	--	4-9	The Red Rifle won his revenge game, the defense forced multiple turnovers, and the Bengals were held to 3.4 yards per carry. All that, and the Cowboys still come out of the week with a top 5 draft pick. Honestly, Sunday couldn't have gone better. Now, the only question is whether this was the team turning the corner and the beginning of a strong finish to the season, or this was just a perfect moment of the Cowboys finding a shittier team with serious injuries issues and just doing what should happen in that scenario.
30.	Bengals	--	2-10-1	Giovani Bernard hadn't fumbled since 2013 before his 1st quarter fumble on Sunday. So what does he get for his troubles? A spot on the bench thanks to Zac Taylor. Giovani was one of the only veterans who spoke out in behalf of Taylor and the current coaches when multiple articles were released with "sources" saying that Taylor had lost the locker room last month. You have to question the benching for multiple reasons as the directionless Bengals continue to flounder to blowout losses. Just another reason why this should be Zac Taylor's last season as head coach in Cincinnati.
31.	Jaguars	--	1-12	This one felt more as expected. Perhaps it was in former GM Dave Caldwell's plans— no, wait, hear me out. Adjusting tinfoil hat; Based on the moves taken this offseason to seemingly dump talent from the Jaguars in attempt to amass more draft picks, perhaps the former front office of the Jaguars were banking on this season not being played, due to pandemic reasons. Sure, this may sound farfetched, but I'd like to hear a more reasonable explanation for fielding such a disaster as this team, this season.
32.	Jets	--	0-13	The Jets have now scored on 7 consecutive opening drives, the longest streak in the NFL. After climbing to an early 3-0 lead, I watched Peter Sawkins make an excellent cranachan custard slice on The Great British Bake Off.

Analysis of My Tennis Results Over the Last Two Years and How Betting Lines as Early as Possible More than Doubled my Returns

Betting Early and Price Shopping

This graph shows my units gained and ROI from betting ATP tennis in 2019 & 2020. The blue line is my actual results over 615 bets in that time period. These are the odds I actually bet the matches at. The stats are as follows: 352-250-13, +77.32u, +8.9% ROI, +1.94% CLV, +12.3 average cents of CLV per bet, and I beat the closing line 70% of the time. You can see all my past bets here. Note: FWIW, people calculate CLV differently. I calculate it as the % difference in implied probability, some people do the expected value % way.
I decided to chart my returns as if I had made every bet at Pinnacle's closing line, the red line on the graph. The difference is quite noticeable. My returns betting at the closing line over those same 615 bets are as follows: +35.8u, +4.3% ROI. Getting on lines as early as possible (assuming you're on the right side) and shopping for the best prices even if its only between 2 or 3 books can make a massive difference in your results. I personally only shopped between BetOnline and Bookmaker as these books are better for tennis, but you could only imagine the insane advantage you could get shopping between 7-8 different books. Obviously many of us on sportsbook knew this was the case in theory, but I thought it would be cool for everyone to see the difference it can make over the longer-term: over multiple years and over 500+ bets, the added value from betting early and shopping for the best price will magnify your returns. After all, not many people track their results long enough to see this change. We're talking about getting only a 12 cent head start on the closing line, doubled my return after 600 picks.
It seems not all Pinnacle closing lines are as efficient as made out to be

I was a bit surprised to see my results at close still had a 4.3% ROI over 600 bets. This return over that sample is beginning to become statistically significant. Pinnacle is known for having some of the sharpest closing lines in the business. Now tennis isn't on the same level as, say, English Premier league, but what gives here?
This graph made by Pinnacle charts over 136,000 odds on tennis matches spanning from 2015-2019. As you can see there is an incredibly high degree of efficiency between the implied win % from the odds and the actual win % of those matches. (Note: the blue line is slightly below the yellow as the bookmaker's margin is not removed). Similarly, here is your ROI by odds groupings if you had blindly bet the Pinnacle closing line of every ATP main draw match since 2010. There's clearly a favorite-longshot bias in play here as underdog ROI's are in the negative double digits, but it seems Pinnacle's ATP closing lines are pretty efficient.
Obviously, my results betting at close vs the empirical data of over tens of thousands of ATP matches on Pinnacle are beginning to contradict each other. My opinion is that is that, although it’s true that Pinnacle closing lines are a great, if not the best, estimator of the true probabilities of a tennis match, this is only true ON AVERAGE. As bettors, we have the distinct advantage of being able to select bets where we believe the market is wrong. We don't have to bet every single match or game. In the span of 2019 and 2020 there were roughly 16,000 ATP and Challenger level tennis matches; I only bet about 3% of them.
It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that Pinnacle just fucks up on pricing a small percentage of their bets. On the other hand, a prevailing theory may also be that there is some sort of price anchoring going on between Pinnacle and their customers betting into the line. From Joseph Buchdahl's article on Pinnacle: "Let’s suppose instead that when a price longer than the ‘true’ price is published, it is more likely that it will close still longer than the ‘true’price. Conversely, when a shorter than ‘true’ price is published it is more likely to close still shorter than ‘true’. Why should this be the case? Well, since the ‘true’ price remains unknown, both to the bookmaker and their customers, the actual value of the opener could be hypothesized to act as a kind of anchor or reference point which biases judgement and restricts the magnitude of future movements. Sure, pricing mistakes will be exploited, but possibly not by as much as they should be. That, at least, is the idea" of price anchoring.
He goes on to say: The majority of bettors will probably look at the odds before deciding whether to bet rather than undertaking their own analysis to determine a ‘true’ outcome probability. Thus, when a bettor sees a bookmaker’s price of 2.25, they might take the view that the ‘true’ price is 2.05, and not 2.00. The act of observing the 2.25 may influence their judgement to the extent that they will deviate away from the ‘true’ price and towards the anchor price. A similar argument can be applied to prices shorter than ‘true’."
So, it's possible that there is some amount of price anchoring going on, and these closing prices are closing not long enough or not short enough from their fair values. It's also possible that I've just been getting astronomically lucky for the past two years, but we can only guess until I submit more bets.
CLV Matters

Although not all of these closing lines are efficient, my results are better as my CLV improves. See some of these stats for reference.

When getting positive no-vig CLV: +66.78u, +16.0 ROI% over 291 bets
When getting negative no-vig CLV: +10.55u, +2.33% ROI over 324 bets

When my closing line value does not even beat out the bookmaker's vig, the returns are a measly +10u over 324 bets. When I overcome the juice, my ROI skyrockets to 16% over 291 bets.
Lessons learned / Advice

Bet as early as your bet size will allow and shop for the best prices. It will lower the sportsbook's hold and will vastly improve your returns. This is the easiest way to improve your edge right off the bat. I think my results showed this.
Perhaps focus your betting on less efficient markets. Want to bet NFL or NBA for example? Focus on player props, instead of sides and totals. You're more likely to have an actual edge and are also more likely to find prices way off from the rest of the market
If you do decide to dabble in more efficient (hard-to-beat) markets, keep track of your CLV. Once you obsess over beating the closing line you become more price sensitive and more process oriented rather than results oriented. Your focus shifts to accumulating expected value over time that will produce results in the "long-term", rather than "trying to pick winners." on a day-to-day basis. CLV isn't the ultimate proxy for success, there are some exceptions, but the benefits a bettor achieves from making this his / her main focus cannot be overstated.

Anyways, sorry for the long post; hope you enjoyed the read. If you want to follow me this tennis season, I post everything in the Tennis Daily thread. I also have a telegram channel that you can follow so that you get notifications of when I bet. Reddit isn't always the best medium for sharing plays. The next tournament is in a few weeks with the Australian Open right around the corner. Best of luck!

Hey - One person believes we could win it all next year. That's something, right?

2021 Bills NFL Draft - my take on the pick of our dreams

I am going to expound at length here about what I believe should be the Bills' primary target to add tot this offense for the coming years:
For the offseason: how do we feel about trading up (~top 10) to land Kyle Pitts? Personally, I think THAT move, singularly, would take Josh Allen, and this franchise, to unbelievable heights for many years to come.
The league is shifting in a way in which having a "plus (+)" player at the tight end position is extremely valuable. And I'm surprised it hasn't happened sooner. A good tight end can be summed up as a pure mismatch player, no matter what you do with him. I'm thinking guys like Kelce, Kittles, Andrews, Waller, and a few others. Jimmy Graham, Gronkowski in their primes. Tony Gonzales and Shannon Sharpe in their days. BIG guys that can really catch the ball and run routes that have the athleticism - way too much speed for most/all linebackers to cover, and way too big for DB's to cover. Game changers in the blocking scheme because they are or nearly as big and strong as D linemen and LB's. Can pick up DB blitzes and also block down field for YAC... all in helping your overall pass-and-run blocking game if they can block. That position carries so much value, and I haven't been impressed by any of the guys we have rotating there for us. I think that ONE gamechanger at TE will plant Josh Allen firmly as a top QB for at least a decade.
And everyone is talking about Trevor Lawrence being the 'can't miss, generational' prospect in this draft. They have said this many times about lots of guys with this same level of hype and been wrong. that's the nature of the QB position and how so many psychological factors and system issues play a part. You really never know, and even Lawrence carries some real risk in aspects you can't really predict until he starts playing. The real generational prospect is Kyle Pitts...
Started following the guy last year and from the very moment he took the field your eyes just fixate on that guy. The dude is 6'6" and 250lb, but he still looks and plays like an elite WR when he's going out. Elite in all aspects - route-running, beating defenders, array of separation moves, and top end speed for the position. When I said he's like a WR out there... a guy that big and he can run 4.4, and they 'say' he can run in the 4.3's (ran the 100m in HS in 10.45s, but obviously he was about 40lb lighter then. Of course these numbers are probably juiced or unverified... but the point is: he is FAST. It is clear on film and by the mere fact that people would not be shocked in the slightest if those numbers hold when he is officially timed.
What he's added is muscle, so it's made him into a solid pass blocker. His athleticism and skills make him great in the running game and he can continue blocking down field with pace ahead of RB's.
But here's where I think we have to do everything possible to get this guy: "spectacular"/ explosive play / chunk catching ability. He will literally catch everything thrown in his direction, relatively within his extensive orbit. In 2 years, the ONLY targets that he did not catch were due to poor throws that weren't close, out of bounds, back of the end zone, etc. I have not seen a guy so easily beat double, and even triple coverage and come down with the ball every time like I have with this guy. You know that brutal hail Murray play that really depressed us for a while? I am willing to bet any amount of money that if you throw a Hail Mary in Pitts' direction 10 times, it's a touchdown at least 6-8 of those times. Moss-like instincts with timing and nose for the football, but over 6'6 with ~40+" leaping ability, massive hands, and... ZERO, i said zero, unforced drops in his 2 years in the SEC, the stiffest competition with, typically, the nation's top defenses that feed the NFL talent pool year after year.
I mentioned those names of great TE's earlier, and I genuinely believe that this guy could surpass all of them if he remains healthy. There is a goofy little futures bet that I placed a while ago with +550 odds at the time that – that I am loving right now – that he will be on the Madden cover by 2025. When we started 4-0 and it became clear our draft pick was going to be very late in the first round (maybe 27+... HOPEFULLY 32!!!) I was thinking he'd be available that late in the 1st round. He also sat out several games this year and I was hoping he'd continue to do so... but it didn't matter. In the games he DID play he was easily the best player on the field and a nightmare for all defenses. He even torched Alabama and thoroughly, consistently, and easily beat Patrick Surtain III, projected top 10 pick and considered the next great CB from this draft. It wasn't even a contest. He will be taken in the top 20 for sure, and some GM's with a need might even take him top 5. He's that good. Play him on the line, put him in the slot, motion him anywhere you want, use exotic schemes, or just simply use him as your prototype, topflight WR1... he'll be the highest tier in any of those roles as a premier receiving weapon. You literally take other teams' defensive playbooks throw half of it in the trash. Man coverage will not be played no matter WHO you have, and this is a guy that got the moniker as a 'zone beater' this past season when he’d get consecutive calls for him for multiple 10-18-yard gains down the field... but it's just the only way you can hope to guard against the singular explosive chunk plays.
He's a guaranteed TD in the red zone, and the best deep ball threat since Randy Moss... I NEVER feel high on prospects. Never have. On the contrary, I roll my eyes and because, if you make the effort you track back, the ‘experts’ completely miss the mark on ~2/3 or more of the first round, the rest either underperform based on expectations/hype, and a few live up to the draft pick. Not to mention the guys taken in later rounds that become superstars and go back, find, and have a good laugh at the past ‘scouting reports’ and ‘draft profiles’ later on. The Mel Kiper's and Todd McShay's and everyone else get it wrong way more often than they get it right. [PS Kiper is taking so much credit for being high on Josh Allen from the start, but he doesn’t want to play that game of analyzing all his mock draft analysis for as long as he’s been doing it]. Congratulations, Mel… but you were MIA, mum on the subject for his first two shaky seasons. I’d prop him up if he was standing by it and standing by his take and say8ing Allen would eventually make that leap. You had nothing to do with his development by this Bills’ coaching team and management. He’d end up a Darnold if he landed with the Jets, and while I always stood by him because our coaches were, and they are trusted, I NEVER expected this kind of dramatic leap between each of his first 3 years. But you’ll take the credit when Beane, McDermott, Daboll, Frazier, all the positions’ coaches worked together in building a long-term, sustainable, and ingrained culture of success that Allen found himself in.
But even though these prospect scouts/analysts DO acknowledge that Pitts is surely lottery pick, I believe they are still grossly sleeping on what a 'generational' player he WILL be, barring health to the extent that I am confident he will be.
Add him to this Bills' passing attack and keep the rest of this receiving corps intact (Diggs and Brown out wide, Davis as a no. 3, Beasley in the slot, McKenzie as the ATH/gadget man, and Andre Roberts as return specialist intact for the foreseeable future) ... the passing attack could be not just the most lethal in the NFL, but a historic one. I don't know if you want to place a ton of focus on the running game, but Moss and Singletary are plenty good enough to do what the run game needs to do, and they have proven that many times over. And although I'd ideally want to avoid this - we saw just last week what a threat Allen himself poses when he (smartly, please) takes off.
The pairing of this player - Pitts - with Allen, in particular, is just so tantalizingly saucy. Allen has shown tremendous accuracy this year, but Pitts completely erases the consequences of the errant throw - he catches everything in his general air space. He is the PERFECT weapon for a QB with elite 'arm talent,' unaffected by velocity, distance, or height. Fast enough to chase down a deep overthrow, will win every red zone/end zone jump ball with size/leaping ability, and the hands, technique, and body control to make every spectacular catch.
I know this has become a massive gush-fest, but if you can believe it, I don't think I'm doing it enough justice with how I believe it can alter the course of our beloved Bills franchise for at least a decade. So I feel the NEED to start some sort of movement or campaign within Bills mafia so that the chatter spreads.
We need to move up from the 32nd pick that we're going to get this year, but exactly how far up is murky. Most of these mocks by various big-name experts and groups have him going in the 12-20 range, while a few have him in the top 10. (One has him going no. 3 overall to Miami in that pick they got from Houston, which would be the WORST thing to happen... on a division rival and arguably the biggest challenger for the next several years). The lowest I saw was him falling to 25, but that is not going to happen. There are several teams with a need and young promising quarterbacks that they'd love to pair with an elite TE for years - I'm thinking the Chargers/Herbert, Bengals/Burrow, the Texans are desperate to make up for their massive fuckup in trading DHop and he'd be lethal with Deshaun.
I understand that the front office and many fans prefer to think in terms of primary roster 'needs,' and want us to find a top notch CB2 opposite Tre, add another top-end, high leverage linebacker, or shore up the interior offensive line to invest in that weakness and further protect our pending long-term investment in Josh Allen for the long haul as well as help with the, at times, average run blocking between the tackles, and I would be completely on board if we went that way. I think we could even add an edge rusher to eventually take the mantle when Hughes retires opposite Addison and with Epenesa moving around/rotating. it does appear we need a more dynamic running back, as well, capable of just finding one hole and gone. Moss and Singletary (bless his heart on that final hilarious TD run last week but it'll be a LONG time before he breaks one like that again) are good enough for how we utilize the run, but they are definitely used situationally - to shorten distance on early downs, pick up critical few yards here and there, manage the clock, and keep the defense honest and not just play dime and nickel all game. But they are NOT home run threats, and it might be nice to have a guy that can do it out of the backfield and not have to rely on risky jet sweeps and gadget plays for McKenzie, Roberts, Brown, and co. We can find that in late rounds/undrafted pool.
I am just imploring that there will be plenty of ways to either make improvements with later picks, in free agency/other offseason moves, at least to hold us over for subsequent opportunities to do so. But [my humble yet unequivocally FIRM opinion] there isn't and won't be a better and/or more synergistic player to pair with Josh Allen to come around in the next ten years.
And that concludes my pitch.
Go Bills!

Rookie Report: Week 14 Starts & Sits

Original article from drinkfive.com

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s finally time for the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully you’ve survived this far and have a meaningful matchup this week, or even better a bye into week 15. The end of the fantasy regular season brought some big-time performances from the rookie crop. Henry Ruggs helped the Raiders avoid being the first team to fall to the Jets this season. Jonathan Taylor had a long touchdown catch where he was untouched, and then racked up 73 fourth quarter rushing yards to help the Colts salt the game away. We also saw Brandon Aiyuk put up a huge game on Monday night, and JK Dobbins follow suit on Tuesday. Jalen Hurts took over as the new QB in Philly, and Justin Jefferson found the end zone for the third straight week. It wasn’t all sunshine and roses for the rookie class though. Justin Herbert had the worst game of his young career in a shutout loss to New England. Standout running back Antonio Gibson left early on Monday with turf toe and will be out in week 14, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire was active on Sunday night, but was just the emergency back and didn’t play a single snap. It was a true nightmare scenario for people who played either of those backs. Which rookies will help you and which will hurt you in week 14? Let’s take a look and find out…

(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)

Rookies to Start:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): Herbert had a disastrous game last week against the Patriots. It was the first time all year he was held without a touchdown, the first time all year he was held below a 58% completion percentage (he completed 49%), and just the 2nd time he’s thrown multiple interceptions in a game. If you made the playoffs with Herbert as your QB in spite of that performance, you shouldn’t be afraid to fire him back up this week. Throw away the tape from last week and trust that he will bounce back against the defense that allows the most QB fantasy points per game. Even including last week’s game, Herbert is averaging nearly 22 fantasy points per game and is the QB8 for the season. There should be plenty of volume for both offenses in this game, as both teams rank in the top-5 in the league in pace (fewest seconds per play run). I’d go into Sunday with confidence that Herbert will deliver 20+ points this week or at least close to it.

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): Robinson has proven that he is start-worthy every single week. He’s the RB4 on the year, has 70+ scrimmage yards in all but 1 game this season, and 10+ fantasy points in all but 2 games. He gets to face the defense allowing the 7th-most RB points per game, a defense he roughed up for 19.5 points in week 2. You’ve likely gotten to this point because of James Robinson. You’ve got to continue to trust him in the playoffs if you have him.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 14: @LV): If you trusted Jonathan Taylor last week you were handsomely rewarded with a 21-point performance, but his usage early in the game was still concerning. Taylor finished the game the highest snap share of the Colts’ backs (48%), but entering the 4th quarter he had just 3 rushing attempts and 2 receptions. He was lucky enough that the Texans forgot to defend him on one of the receptions and he strolled 39 yards for a touchdown, but he didn’t see the ball much aside from that catch until the last quarter. He was dominant in the 4th, piling up 70 rushing yards on 10 carries, but without that we would be wondering if he was back in the doghouse. I’m confident that there is no way the Colts’ coaching staff could watch that 4th quarter and then go right back to the same usage pattern against another bad run defense this week. Taylor should be involved early and often in Vegas. The Raiders rank 31st in the league in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, and allow the 4th-most RB points per game. Despite the questionable usage, Taylor has seen 35 rushing attempts and 7 receptions in his last 2 games. His floor makes him a flex play this week, but I think this is more likely to be a ceiling week. He has high RB1 upside this week. He could be a steal at his $5,800 price tag on DraftKings.

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 14: vs. GB): Swift sounds likely to play this week, and if he does he should probably be in your lineup. There is a risk that he won’t play the kind of snap share he was seeing before his concussion, but the Packers allow the 3rd-most RB points per game and a large chunk of that comes from receiving production. Green Bay has allowed the 2nd-most RB receiving yards per game and the 8th-most RB receptions. Swift is by far the best receiving back on the Lions’ roster. Game script should be negative for Detroit, so they’re likely to be throwing. The only teams to not get a running back to 12+ fantasy points against the Packers were the Lions in week 3 (Swift only played 6 snaps) and the Eagles’ broken offense last week. Check to make sure he’s active Sunday, but if he plays, Swift will likely finish as at least an RB2.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 14: @TB): In recent weeks it appears Jefferson has taken the next step and has gone from a volatile WR2 with some huge blowup games to a consistent weekly WR1. He’s now strung together 4 consecutive 15+ point games (only 2 games with 15+ in his first 8 games) and saw his two highest target totals of the season in the last two weeks. Tampa Bay has been a tough matchup against WRs for much of the season, but there have been some cracks in recent weeks. Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp both reached 130 yards against them in week 11, and Tyreek Hill caught for 200 against them in a single quarter in week 12. The Bucs have had an extra week to prepare for this game, but they’re likely to be without their #2 CB Jamel Dean in this game. Top corner Carlton Davis will probably be shadowing Adam Thielen, and if that’s the case Jefferson will most often match up with Sean Murphy-Bunting, who has allowed a 119 passer rating on 69 throws into his coverage. Don’t be afraid to fire up Jefferson as your WR1 again this week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 14: vs. KC): It’s tough to know what to expect this week from Tua given that this isn’t an easy matchup for a QB and the offense will be a bit shorthanded, but those same factors could also lead to a pass-happy game plan for the ‘Phins. The Chiefs are favored by a touchdown, and the Dolphins are missing their top 3 running backs. The guys they do have available (DeAndre Washington & Patrick Laird) are both better suited to a 3rd down pass catching role, so they may have some trouble establishing the run game. The Chiefs have allowed the 12-fewest QB points per game, but they’ve been shakier in recent weeks. KC has allowed 2 or more TD passes in 4 straight games, and 20+ fantasy points to the opposing QB in 3 of them. Tua set a new career-high with 39 pass attempts last week, and he could make a run at that number again. I’d view him as a lower-end QB2 with upside.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 14: @Mia.): Edwards-Helaire let down a lot of fantasy players last week when he was active on Sunday night but didn’t play a single snap. That’s not likely to happen again this week. CEH should be good to go for week 14, and this is a reasonable spot for a nice game for the rookie. The Dolphins are easier to run on than throw, ranking 24th in run defense DVOA and 6th in pass defense DVOA. The Chiefs are a team that can shred even the best pass defenses, but this is still a week where they would be smart to keep Clyde in the game plan. Le’Veon Bell didn’t look very explosive last week, and the Dolphins have allowed at least one running back to run for 65 yards or more in 4 of their last 5 games. In the only game they lost in that stretch, Denver had two different backs each reach 80 rushing yards. The Chiefs are a touchdown favorite in this one. CEH should have a good chance to return RB2 value this week even if he doesn’t find the end zone.

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Dobbins has been productive in recent weeks, with 70+ rushing yards and a TD the week before and the week after his stint on the COVID list, but he’s done that against bad run defenses (Tennessee and Dallas). He’s still sharing more of the running back load than I’d like and turning limited opportunities into production. He played less than 40% of the snaps against the Cowboys and touched the ball just 11 times. It’ll likely take more work than that to post a similarly productive day against the Browns. Cleveland allows the 9th-fewest running back points per game. Dobbins did get in the end zone twice against these Browns in week 1 and he’s certainly the most explosive back in this backfield, but if you start him you’re hoping he continues to be productive on limited touches, and doing so in a tougher matchup. I’d view him as a flex play this week.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 14: vs. Was.): Aiyuk gets a tough matchup this week against a Washington team allowing the 2nd-fewest WR points per game, and a tough individual matchup with Kendall Fuller, but he’s been productive in tough matchups before. The Football Team has given up long TD passes to Amari Cooper and James Washington in each of their last two games, and Aiyuk is pretty much the only downfield receiving threat the 49ers have. In the last 4 games he’s been active for, Aiyuk has averaged 10 targets and 94 yards per game and found the end zone in 3 of them. Even in this tougher matchup, he’s likely to be a solid WR3.

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): Higgins draws the best matchup he’s had since before the team’s bye in week 9. The ceiling has been capped with Brandon Allen at QB, but he’s still seen 13 targets in the last two weeks with Allen starting and Dallas allows the 4th-most WR points per game. In their last 6 games, Dallas has allowed 11 wide receivers to reach double-digit fantasy points. Higgins should be a pretty safe bet for 10+ points, and this week will probably be about as good a chance as you’ll have to get him in the lineup the rest of the way.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 14: @Buf.): Claypool was surprisingly limited to just 31 snaps and 4 targets last week, losing playing time to James Washington. It was his first game with fewer than 8 targets since week 7, and there is no guarantee that number bounces back this week. JuJu Smith-Schuster gets the best individual matchup of the week against Taron Johnson, and Diontae Johnson has the safest target share (at least 10 targets in every full game he’s played this year). 60+ yards and a TD is always possible for Claypool, but this week he’s more of a borderline WR3 than a guy I would fire up with confidence.

WR Michael Pittman, Jr. (Wk. 14: @LV): Last week’s blowup game by TY Hilton shows that I may have been a little early to anoint Pittman as the WR1 in Indy, but he gets another decent matchup this week with the Raiders. Vegas allows the 13th-most WR points per game, but that number would probably be higher if they weren’t also bad at stopping the run. Even if he truly hasn’t overtaken Hilton yet, Pittman has still been utilized a lot in recent weeks and has a solid connection with Philip Rivers. In his last 5 games, Pittman has averaged 6.4 targets, 4.2 catches, and just under 60 yards per game. He had an inefficient performance in week 12 with just 2 catches on 9 targets, but if you throw that game away he and Rivers have connected on 15 of the last 16 throws in his direction. If the targets are there again this week, the points will be too. He’s an upside flex play.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 14: @Cin.): Lamb managed to make it 5 straight weeks with at least 4 receptions last Sunday, but he still hasn’t caught for more than 71 yards in a game not started by Dak Prescott. Amari Cooper draws the toughest individual matchup among the Cowboy receivers against Cincy’s #1 corner William Jackson, so there could be a couple extra throws that come Lamb’s way. CeeDee should mostly face off with Mackensie Alexander in the slot. Alexander has allowed nearly a 70% completion percentage into his coverage, but just 6.3 yards per target and zero touchdowns on 45 throws in his direction. Lamb remains a floor play flex option once again.

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 14: vs. Hou.): Kmet finally saw the targets to match his snap share last week. He’s out-snapped Jimmy Graham for 3 straight games but had nothing to show for it until last Sunday. Facing off with a defense that allows the 8th-fewest tight end points per game, Kmet managed to put up 5-37-1 on 7 targets. Houston isn’t as tough on the position, allowing the 16th-most points. Kmet is far from a safe option, but he’s in play as a borderline TE1 this week at what has been a barren fantasy position once you get past the top few options.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. NO): The Eagles have made the bold decision to turn to Hurts at QB this week and send Carson Wentz to the bench. This move might’ve been made sooner if the Eagles didn’t have so much invested in Wentz. Wentz has struggled badly, but Hurts gets a tough matchup for his first career start. The Saints rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-fewest QB points per game for the year. There will be a learning curve for Hurts as a passer at the NFL level, and the Eagles offensive line play should be even shakier going forward with Jason Peters out for the rest of the year. Hurts does have a ton of upside as a runner that could make him an interesting QB2 option in one of these final weeks, but I don’t think this is the week to count on that. I’ve seen prop bets for Hurts’ rushing yards this week set at 33.5, and I would be hammering the over on that number. He ran for at least that many yards in every single game at Oklahoma last year, and for 60+ yards in 10 of his 14 games.

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): Moss had been functioning as the 1-A back of the Bills backfield committee in recent weeks, but a costly fumble deep in their own territory last Monday (that was somehow charged to Josh Allen) changed that quickly. Devin Singletary played most of the snaps after the fumble. Moss will probably play more this week than he did last week, but the way he was completely benched last week leads me to believe he’ll have some work to do to build back the trust from the coaches to go back to his normal role. I’d expect Moss to be more of the 1-B to Singletary for the immediate future, and this week the Bills face a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 3rd in run defense DVOA and allows the 2nd-fewest RB points per game. That’s not a great situation for his fantasy prospects this week.

RB/WRs Lynn Bowden, Jr. & Malcolm Perry, MIA (Wk. 14: vs. KC): News broke this weekend that Myles Gaskin was placed on the Dolphins’ COVID list, and backups Salvon Ahmed & Matt Brieda have both already been ruled out as well. That leaves just DeAndre Washington and Patrick Laird as healthy backs on the team, and both are better suited to a 3rd down receiving role. Washington is expected to be the starter, but there has been speculation that Lynn Bowden could help fill some of the void since he played some running back in college. I’m not convinced. Bowden has played the vast majority of his snaps as a pro at wide receiver. His running back eligibility could give him some upside if I was confident that he was going to play most of the snaps at slot WR, but Malcolm Perry’s return from injury throws some doubt on that. Perry is a similarly versatile player who played 78% of the offensive snaps in the last game he was healthy for. Bowden was more productive last week than Perry was before getting hurt, but Perry was playing ahead of Bowden prior to the injury. I’d expect him to take at least some of the slot WR work from Bowden if he’s active. That’s enough to make want to avoid both in a matchup against a defense that allows the 3rd-fewest WR points per game.

RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): As expected, Kelley was banished to the bench with both Austin Ekeler and Kalen Ballage active last week. Kelley played just 3 snaps in garbage time of a blowout loss to New England last Sunday. It’s unlikely he sees that playing time increase much without an injury in front of him.

RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 14: @Buf.): In the last two weeks with James Conner sidelined on the COVID list, McFarland played a total of just 25 snaps and posted 41 scrimmage yards. Conner returns this week, so there’s no reason McFarland should be in your lineups.

RB Darrynton Evans, TEN (Wk. 14: @Jax.): Evans returns from IR this week, so he is a name to remember, but he’ll be competing with Jeremy McNichols for backup work and this is Derrick Henry’s show. The only way he’ll play more than a handful of snaps in this one is if there happens to be garbage time. The Titans are favored by 7.5 and the Jaguars have just one win, so it’s possible that happens, but the Jaguars have lost by more than 4 points just once in their past 5 games. Only one of those last 5 opponents has a record below .500.

WRs Jerry Jeudy & KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 14: @Car.): Jeudy and Hamler have flashed fantasy upside at times this year, but the Broncos’ passing game is tough to count on week-to-week. Jeudy in particular hasn’t quite been on the same page with Drew Lock this season, as only 54% of Jeudy’s targets this season have been catchable according to Pro Football Focus. This week’s opponent, the Panthers, allow the 13th-fewest WR points per game, and the guys who have done the most damage against them have been WR1s. Tim Patrick has led the Broncos WRs in snaps in each of the last 3 weeks and has functioned as the WR1 of this offense when healthy. The full list of wide receivers who have put up 15+ points against the Panthers this season is Mike Evans (twice), Keenan Allen, Justin Jefferson, Calvin Ridley (with Julio out), and Julio Jones (in the other meeting). None of these Denver receivers are in that ballpark right now. I’d look for a better option this week.

WR Collin Johnson, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): Johnson has taken advantage of injuries ahead of him on the depth chart to emerge in the last couple weeks, posting a line of 8-162-1 in the last 2 games on 14 targets due to missed time by DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault. Mike Glennon has always liked tall receivers, so Johnson has been a popular name in fantasy circles after his recent performances, but I think he goes back to a limited role this week with Shenault on track to return. Viska exited the game last week just before halftime with a thumb injury. This is a plus matchup for wide receivers with the Titans allowing the 5th-most points per game to the position, but I’d be surprised if Johnson sees more than just a few targets. Chark and Shenault are the Jacksonville receivers I’d view as most likely to take advantage of the matchup.

WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. NO): As the Eagles get healthier at the skill positions, Reagor continues to inexplicably lose target share and snaps to guys who probably shouldn’t be featured ahead of him. Alshon Jeffery played his highest snap share of the season last week, and Zach Ertz’s return is bound to siphon off targets from other weapons as well. In his first game back, he played a higher snap share as the TE2 behind Goedert than Richard Rodgers did in any game this year. Those snaps are going to come from the receivers. Travis Fulgham has taken a bigger hit than Reagor, but it hasn’t been good for the rookie either. He was targeted just once last week in a game where Philly threw the ball 27 times. The addition of Jalen Hurts at QB makes this offense even more unpredictable. Reagor is probably going to be tough to trust in you lineups just about every week the rest of the way.

WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): Ruggs made one of the plays of the week last Sunday when the Jets inexplicably blitzed on the last play of the game and left the speedster one-on-one with undrafted rookie corner Lamar Jackson, and he made them pay with a game-winning TD catch. While it was a feel-good moment for Ruggs, it isn’t a reason for you to start putting him into your fantasy lineups. Last week was just the second time all season that Ruggs topped 8 fantasy points, and he needed that miracle TD to do it. He had less than 5 fantasy points before the final play. This week he faces a Colts defense that allows the 9th-fewest WR points per game and ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA. I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance.

WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 14: vs. GB): Like Henry Ruggs, Cephus caught a long TD in a comeback win last Sunday, but as with Ruggs it’s not a reason to trust him going forward. Cephus now has 14 targets in 2 games against the Bears, and 11 total targets in the other 6 games he’s played. Marvin Hall was cut recently after Mohamed Sanu was brought in, and Cephus has been splitting snaps with Sanu and Danny Amendola behind Marvin Jones. Jones has been a full-time player, and in the first game without Marvin Hall it was Sanu at 59% of the snaps, Amendola at 49%, and Cephus at 46%. Sanu has seen his snap share increase each week he’s been with the team, and Amendola was likely being eased back in after missing the previous two games, so there is reason to believe Cephus will play less this week. Jaire Alexander is likely to be shadowing Marvin Jones, so there is upside for the receivers behind him, but I don’t expect Quintez to be the beneficiary.

WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Devin could’ve been a sneaky play this week if Willie Snead and Mark Andrews weren’t activated from the COVID list ahead of the game. The Browns allow the 7th-most WR points per game, and with Dez Bryant seemingly calling it quits after testing positive for Covid-19 on Tuesday, Duvernay would’ve been in line for a sizable role against that defense if Snead & Andrews were out. With them back he will play his usual role, a role that hasn’t seen him handle more than 3 targets in any game this season. He’s no more than a minimum-priced dart throw in DFS tournaments.

TE Adam Trautman, NO (Wk. 14: @Phi.): Trautman was leading the Saints’ TE group in snaps for a few weeks with Taysom Hill at QB, but hadn’t converted those snaps to production. Last week he dropped to just 35% of the snaps, and posted just 3 catches for 9 yards against the worst TE defense in the league. This week will likely be the last start for Hill this season, and when Brees comes back I’d expect Trautman’s snaps to decrease even further. He’s playing because he’s a better run blocker than the other TE options on the team. We haven’t seen enough production from Trautman to consider him even in another plus matchup this week.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): The logic here is pretty simple. The Seahawks are a 2-touchdown favorite playing the worst team in the league. Carlos Hyde and Chris Carson are both less than 100% and Travis Homer is doubtful this week. If the Seahawks put this game away early, we could see a lot of Dallas in the 2nd half, and I like the Seahawks’ chances to put this game away early. The Jets’ new defensive coordinator said the scheme won’t change much with Gregg Williams gone. The Jets are one of the blitz-happiest in the league (3rd-highest blitz rate), and Russell Wilson feasts on defenses that give his receivers one-on-one coverage. The Jets are a better run defense than pass defense, so I expect Russ to carve them up in the first half, and for the Seahawks to put things on cruise control in the second half. Dallas costs the minimum on DraftKings, and could see double-digit touches in a game where the Seahawks implied point total is over 30 points.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): As mentioned with Collin Johnson, the Titans are not a very good defense against wide receivers. They allow the 5th-most points per game to the position and rank 30th in pass defense DVOA. Shenault managed to post a useful day last week despite getting injured late in the first half, and this week could have a very favorable individual matchup. The Titans will be without Adoree Jackson, Breon Borders & Kristian Fulton at CB, and the likely guy they’ll ask to step in and start is Tye Smith. Smith has played limited snaps this season, but has allowed 2 TDs and a passer rating of 140.7 on the 11 throws into his coverage. Viska hasn’t really shown a big ceiling this season, but if there is a week for him to do it, it’s probably this one.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): In the 5 games where Davis has played 70% or more of the offensive snaps, he’s posted 58+ receiving yards 4 times, averaging about 60 yards and 10 fantasy points per game in those contests. This one is a tough matchup. The Steelers rank 1st in pass defense DVOA, but there are 11 teams that allow fewer WR points per game than Pittsburgh, and John Brown remains on IR so Davis is likely to play almost every snap. He’s a reasonable flex option of you’re searching for points in a deep league.

WR Darnell Mooney, TEN (Wk. 14: vs. Hou.): This matchup is a great spot for Allen Robinson, but Mooney could return nice value as well. In each of their 3 games without Bradley Roby, the Texans have allowed the opposing #1 receiver to put up at least 110 yards and a touchdown, but they are a lackluster pass defense overall. They rank 25th in pass defense DVOA, and in the last two games with Trubisky at quarterback Mooney has been targeted 15 times. That kind of volume in this matchup gives him a reasonable shot at 50+ yards, a mark he hasn’t reached since week 8.

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): KhaDarel Hodge is likely out this week, so Donovan Peoples-Jones should be the WR3 for Cleveland again Monday night. Game script will likely have the Browns throwing more this week than they did last week, and while he hasn’t seen a ton of targets DPJ has made a big touchdown play in both games where he’s played 50%+ of the snaps. There is some question as to whether Marvin Hall will steal any snaps from him in his first active game with Cleveland, but I’d expect it to be mostly Peoples-Jones. The Ravens allow just the 6th-fewest WR points per game, so DPJ is no more than a cheap upside option for DFS tournaments.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): Austin Hooper is listed as questionable after popping up on the injury report Friday with a ‘did not practice’ designation for a neck injury. If Hooper misses this game, Bryant has upside in this one if you’re desperate for a tight end. The Ravens have a reputation as a tough defense, but they are in the middle of the pack against tight ends (17th-most TE points allowed per game) and Bryant posted a 4-56-2 line in the one game he played with Hooper sidelined that wasn’t in a monsoon. If Hooper sits, Bryant is probably a borderline top-15 play at tight end this week.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies, and helps you advance to next week. Make sure to check the active/inactive updates on Sunday, and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Check out Shawn this week on the Fantasy Finish Line Podcast, starting on Wednesday at 9pm

Let’s talk about how to bet a specific sport. You can talk about what techniques you use, your process, and what information you use to make your bets. We can also talk about overall concepts.

For instance I’ve had tons of success betting nfl and some success in mlb. However even though basketball is my favorite sport I don’t ever have success betting it. It is infuriating, especially because I believe my process and bets are good. So are there any successful NBA betters who could explain their process? I am going to try to explain how I go about choosing bets and my process in finding good nfl bets. Maybe we can all help each other. It might be a bit lengthy to explain so bear with me.
For NFL, I believe you can gain a lot of insight by watching the games and that is the number one requisite for making good game picks. I also think you should write down your picks/ideas for next week right after the previous week. That way all that you watched is fresh in your mind and you aren’t swayed by what you hear during the week. I believe there is a lot of value in statistics but that they are more beneficial to player props, team scores, and those types of bets rather than game spreads. I also put a lot of value in the game flow for each team in accordance with the game total. By game flow I mean when a team gets up big they usually start to run the ball a lot more and teams that are down start to pass. Also in a high scoring game with lots of possesions players can accumulate a lot more stats. This is by no means infallible but I have found to be very helpful The best way to explain this process might be in an example analysis for a game.
Prior to last nights game I knew from watching both teams that buffalo has an elite offense and an elite defense that has gotten much better but can be susceptible to the run. I knew the patriot’s defense was bad especially their run defense. I also knew the patriots offense was inept especially when passing. So from an eye test I knew bills were the bet and I used an alternate spread of -6.5 to avoid the key number 7. It didn’t matter but this is something I usually do. I also bet bills ML as one leg of a two leg alternate spread/teaser parlay. I wasn’t sure about the overall total however I did bet under patriots team total and under 2.5 total TDs. I did this because of eye test and game flow I talked about earlier. I suspected bills would be up and patriots would need to pass in the second half to score which they would be unable to do. This was a great scenario to bet because the bills pass defense is their strength and patriots pass offense is their weakness. There can be a lot less variation in strength against weakness.
So keeping in mind that the eye test of pats run defense is bad, they are 27th in opponents rushing yards, and bills should be playing ahead I bet over on singletarys rushing yards and over moss’s rush yards. Figuring at least one would hit covering my money and probably both. I shopped around on 3 books to make sure I got the best lines for each which mattered because singletarys varied and only went over by 1.5 yards which it would have been under on the other. I also bet under cam newton longest pass 30.5 yards and under Cam newton fantasy points because of pats bad pass offense and bills good pass defense. I did this based on the eye test, the fact that buffalos pass defense is ranked 8th and patriots pass offense is near the bottom. Again weakness against strength with game flow helping. I was thinking about over michels rush yards cause bills run defense isn’t good and rush offense is pats strength but due to the game flow I decided not. He did end up hitting but most of his yards came in the first quarter. Now this is a game where I was right about most aspects, however there are days where I am completely wrong about it all and lose every bet but today it worked out. All games aren’t clear like this in terms of strength verse weakness, this was just a great example game.
To summarize, for NFL You want to watch games, eye test can provide a lot of insight. Also check box scores after, see who got what stats then think about why. Know the strengths and weakness of the team you are betting on based on their statistics. I used to use DVOA but now it costs money to see so I use per game stats. Also think about the game flow and how that might work in your favor or against you. I would also suggest being disciplined in games you pick. Find a few games a week you really like a team or some weeks don’t even bet at all. Or find a player prop you like and don’t bet the total. I believe player props and fantasy pt totals are much easier to bet because they get less action making their lines less sharp. I believe nfl lines are usually very accurate so often bet 2 leg teasers. I never bet big parlays. I also find certain trends over time, such as a good defensive team with average offense against a good offensive team with bad defense where the spread is negligible youll want to take the good defensive team. Examples include colts verse Houston first matchup and dolphins verse raiders this past week. This all comes from experience which you need. Whenever you are making a bet, you should also be able to explain to a sports beginner why it is a smart bet. Also don’t bet big after a good day/week, you should bet small or even take a break after having a good day. Confidence isn’t your friend, just as being on tilt or emotional is your worst enemy. I also suggest switching up bets after you are successful, if you pick 5 nfl games right habit will tell you that you can pick more game winners. Chances are you won’t and should find other bets whether its totals or props. This is my view point at least, I get caught up making the same type of bet even though it’s not great because I have had prior success with it. If anyone has any questions about how to bet nfl I can try to answer.
As for my nba struggles. On Sunday warriors played bulls, two teams top 5 in pace. I was going to bet the over cause of this but didn’t trust two bad teams. A bet that looked great was over 6.5 curry assists. He had 10 assits in his first game in 30 mins where his team only scored 99 pts in a blowout. In his second game he had 6 assists in 29 minutes where his team only scored 99 in a blowout. So in a high scoring game that should be close curry should get 35 minutes and contribute at least 7 of his teams average 20+ assists. I did think about going with over curry points but went with his assists. He ended up with 36 pts and 6 assists. I believe I had great value here. Another bet was over harell 16.5 pts in the lakers verse timberwolves game. Anthony davis out so I figured more scoring opportunities for Harrell in a game where lakers should get 115-120+. Again I thought of betting over lakers total but didn’t. He ended up with 12 pts in 20 minutes because lakers blew them out so badly that everyone scored and he didn’t get his usual minutes. I think these bets were both great value but both didn’t happen. It seems like there is so much variance in the nba. In nfl there is one or two reasons why a bet wouldn’t hit. In nba everything can go exactly as you thought and it still doesn’t hit. So is nba just difficult to bet cause anything can happen? Does anyone have any good tips or a good process on how to bet?

Super Bowl 2021: Top Six Prop Bets and Predictions

(CLE BROWNS at KC CHIEFS) Game Breakdown + Opinion

CreateYoureReality NFL Week 17 Analysis and Picks (Last week of regular season!!!😀 )

Weeks 15 and16 Recap: Hello! I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and New Year! The stats in the recap are just of week 15. I did not make a post or any plays on week 16, as I was busy playing an online poker tournament, here in New Jersey. My apologies for slowing down a bit this year, it has been rather busy here. We have one more week to get it in before PLAYOFFS?!., Lets see what value we can find.
Singles (4-4 -1.03u)
Parlays (0u) All Free Bets
Teasers (1-0 +8u)
BBDLS (0-5 -2.7u)

Sunday Games

Dallas at New York Giants: Potentially a huge game for either one of these teams. Whichever of these teams wins gets to sweat the Eagles/Washington game and pray for an Eagles win. Dallas has been playing well over the last quarter of the season holding opponents to 24, and their offense has been clicking averaging over 30ppg over that span. Even with the defensive improvement, they are still one of the worst defenses in the league. New York on the other hand has a top 10 defense. It has been doing a fantastic job this year, struggling a bit over the last two weeks but overall is still one of the better defenses in the NFL. Their offense scores a pedestrianly average of 17 ppg but on the bright side seems to have figured out their turnover problem with Daniel Jones. Taking into account full season stats, the algo has this as NY -2. Taking into account only the last 4 games the algo has this as DAL -4.5. The bets the algo favors the most are teasing either team +6.5 or more. It predicts the highest likely game script includes mostly low scoring games due to it being a divisional rematch to end the season and potentially get in the playoffs.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: A very important game for Cleveland, not so much for Pittsburgh. Cleveland needs the win to guarantee a playoff birth, while PIT has already punched their ticket. In fact, PIT will be resting Big Ben, in order to have him at his freshest for a playoff run. Cleveland will be returning most of the players that were out due to Covid vs. the Jets. They will still be missing 2 LB and 2 Safetys, but the majority of the key offensive players have returned. For Pittsburgh they will see Mason Rudolph step in at QB, the last team he faced the Browns, him and Myles Garret got into a fight that saw Garret swing a helmet on an unprotected head of Rudolph. The algo loves Cleveland to come in and take care of business, however it only likes a spread of -7/8. It was 4.5 with Big Ben but with the news of him out, it adjusts about a field goal.

New York Jets at New England: Boy oh boy, what a dumpster fire we have here. Both teams out of playoff contention, and both seeing some of their worst lows. (Although the Jets are more used to this at the end of the season) Jets have had some recent success, winning their first two games and beating two pretty good teams in the process. Now they go for three in a row to close out the season vs the struggling offensively, New England Patriots. They will be sitting Cam Newton and starting Stidham this week. He has looked even worse than Cam, so I don't really know what we can expect out of their offense this week. The algo leans about as close to a pickem as the computer can produce so you can imagine with the Jets catching points and odds on the moneyline, we will be looking their way.

Minnesota at Detroit: This game is currently on my dog or avoid list. There is to much uncertainty with the Lions QB and who is starting. All we do know is that Dalvin Cook for the Vikings is not going to be playing this game due to a death in the family. With the missing key offensive player and the unknown with Covid who the starters will be, this game is an avoid. (Possibly find value with the dog if Stafford is announced playing right before game time)
With two mediocre defenses (The Lions just giving up) this could be a good game for a same game parlays on some props. Jefferson and Thielen are both close to breaking records. Cook is out so backup RB should get more touches...

Atlanta at Tampa Bay: This is a tricky one for me. The algo loves TB to take care of business at home and favors them by 6. However, I personally am weary of both this and the Saints game as neither team NEEDs a win and only the Saints can positively change their playoff seating with a win *(and a GB loss). I think it is possible and highly favorable for both teams to rest their key starters in order to give them a makeshift bye week. Because of that, I will mostly stay away from this game and the Saints game.

Baltimore at Cincinnati: A divisional game that is a "Win and you're in" game for Baltimore. They will be taking on the Bengals, that have actually looked great in their last few games. However, the algo does heavily favor the Raven's to get it done on the road to close out the season. It does think that two TDs might be a bit much though. Because of that I lean Baltimore winning and clinching a playoff birth, but will either look Cincy on the points or stay away from the spread.

Miami at Buffalo: A VERY important game for Miami. Win, and you're in. Lose, and most likely the Colts are in. Fitzmagic came in in the last 3 mins and gave them the win and this opportunity, however he is out with Covid this game so no Magic to be had. It will be down to Tua vs. whoever Buffalo decides to play. Personally I think the value is on Miami. Who knows who and how long the Buffalo starters will play, given they are already in the Playoffs. But, it would be sweet for them to keep a divisional rival out of the post season. My algo likes Buffalo, but my gut says Miami.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: I shouldn't have to talk about this game. Indy knows they need a win and help, and Jacksonville already STUNNED INDY to open the season. It should be a confident grind of a win...but Rivers feeling defeated and needing help to make the post season, this might be a trap game.

Green Bay at Chicago: Ugh, such a hard game. My algo has GB as -3.5 Favorites (6.5 if they were at home) I think the loss of one of GBs key O-line might have a greater effect on them than one of their star offensive scorers. Rodgers is one of the best when given time, but take that time from him and he starts to crumble. Chicago has been playing as well as they could hope for down the stretch. They need a win or a loss and some help to be in.

Tennessee at Houston: Henry needs like 223 yards to reach the 2000 yard club. Houston is one of the worst teams in the league at stopping the run? Seems like a recipe for some TEN running and a play action pass or two for some big chunks. EZ$ Tenn

New Orleans at Carolina: The had NO as -6.5 here, but the loss of Kamara has to be worth at least 3 points right now given NO is already a little shorthanded without Thomas. Carolina has been one of those teams that just hasn't quit. They keep playing and will probably be a good team to bet on next year as they develop. Personally, a divisional game where NO doesn't improve their playoff standings with a win (unless GB loses to CHI) might be a recipe for CAR to have some easy shots at covering, backdoor covering, and maybe just winning outright. Like most of the teams with their ticket punched, there is a good chance they rest starters in the second half just to preserve the health of key players.

Seattle at San Francisco: Except for the loss to the Giants, Seattle has been on fire in the second half. Their offense hasn't had the firepower it started the season with, but it seems to be adding some more short passing into its game and finding a better balance. While the defense seems to be clicking on on cylinders. They have given up 17 or less in their last 5. As for San Fran: " Shanahan said he doesn't expect Garoppolo (ankle) to return this week. Wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk (ankle) and Deebo Samuel (hamstring), left tackle Trent Williams (elbow), defensive end Jordan Willis (ankle) and cornerback Richard Sherman (calf) have already been ruled out. Kicker Robbie Gould was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list"
I think this is the best odds you are going to get on SEA winning the whole thing. I gave this play out to my premium subscribers a few weeks ago, but I like (and bet) SEA having the best odds/price to make it out of the NFC. If by some lucky chance GB and NO lose today, SEA can still get the number one seed and a first round bye. They are currently +1200 to win it all and have (in my algo's opinion) the best QB in the NFC right now.
🤑🤑🤑 GO GET THAT MONEY 🤑🤑🤑

Las Vegas at Denver: This is one of my throwaway games. My algo has this as LV -2, however both teams are out of the playoffs and this game leaves the door open for anyone to flop, or try their heart out. Personally I love Derrick Carr and I think the Raiders are primed to make a deep playoff run next given a few additions to defense.

Arizona at LA Rams: Hmmmm... Kyler Murray is playing(hurtish) Arizona basically needs a win and in. Rams also need a win, but can still make it with a loss. Both teams should be playing their harderst, the biggest variable is going to be the Rams QB. Goff is hurt and will not play. Rams will be going with recently upgraded from the practice squad, Worford. He will be playing in his first NFL game, and I expect the Rams to lean very heavy on the run. Worford IS a mobile-ish QB, so it isn't out of the question for him to take the rams to a good low scoring, defensive win. If he can just make 4-5 good throws on key downs and NOT turn the ball over, I think the Rams come out on top. But if he can't handle the NFL speed and commits even one turnover, then AZ becomes the favorite to win.

Washington at Philadelphia: Last game of the night! Flexed here because it has massive implications in the NFC East. If Washington wins, they win the NFC East and make the playoffs as the 4 seed. If Philly wins, then the winner of the Dallas/NYG game will be the winner of the NFC East. Washington let go of their rookie QB and Alex Smith will start with a "hurt" calf. Philly has 9 players on the injury report and is expected to reach deep into their reserves to field players for this one. My algo slightly favors Washington to win, but given 3-5 points at home, on primetime, I lean heavy Philly.

Singles (91-116-1, -30.11u)

NYG ml (1u to win 1.1u)
N. Chubb ATTS and Browns ml (2.4u to win 2u)
NYJ ml (1u to win 1.35u)
NYJ +3.5 (2.6u to win 2u)
Justin Jefferson 70+ Rec Yards and 1+Tds Over (3u to win 6.45u)
Justin Jefferson 100+ Rec Yards Over (1u to win 1.8u)
Justin Jefferson 125+ Rec Yards Over (1u to win 4.5u)
Adam Thielen 68.5 Rec Yards Over (1.15u to win 1u)
Marvin Jones 64.5 Rec Yards Over (1u to win 1u)
Calvin Ridley Over 87.5 Rec Yards (2.3u to win 2u)
Mark Andrews Over 50.5 Rec Yards (2.3u to win 2u)
Dez Bryant ATTS and Ravens win (1u to win 3u)
Buffalo 1Q ml (1.2u to win 1u)
CHI +4.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
Derrick Henry Over 118.5 Rush Yards (5u to win 4u)
Brandin Cooks Over 69.5 Rec Yards (3.33u to win 3u)
CAR ml (0.5u to win 1.13u)
CAR +6 (2.2u to win 2u)
LAR if the points go back to 3...and the money line if it goes over 125.
John Wolford Over 25.5 Rush yards (5u to win 4u)
Tyler Higbee Over 24.5 Rec Yards (1.1u to win 1u)
Tyler Higbee Over 2.5 Rec (1u to win 1.07u)
J. Hurts 56.5 Rush Yards Over (1.1u to win 1u)

Parlays (6-30, +33.96u)

Ravens ml, Browns ml, Seattle ml, TEN ml, J. Wolford ATTD and Rams win (2u to win 27.73u)
Ravens, Browns, TEN, Seattle, Indy, NYG +6.5, NYJ +6.5 (FB to win 110.56u)
Ravens, Browns, TEN, Seattle, Indy, TB, LV, NYG +3.5, NYJ ml, CAR +6 (5u to win 270u)

Teasers (4-4, +34.6u)

CLE -2.5, NYJ +8.5, NYG +8.5, LAR +8.5 and U48.5, SEA ml and U52.5 (3.86u to win 23.45u)

BBDLS (0-66, -50.24u)

I have 7 in for 9u

Futures plays:
Seattle to win the NFC (100u to win 600u)
Seattle to win the Super Bowl (83.33u to win 1000u)

Thank you everyone for reading. Good luck to all!!

r/NFL Top 100 Players of the 2019 Season - #20-11

Welcome to the reveal for players ranked 20-11 for this year’s NFL Top 100 Players for the 2019 Season!

Players whose average rank had them land in places 20-11 are on this portion of the list revealed today. Players are associated with the team they finished 2019 with.
Below you will see write-ups from rankers summarizing the players' 2019 season and why they were among the best in 2019. Stats for each player are from this season and are included below. Additionally, their previous ranks in this long running series are also available for all of you.
Methodology
LINK TO THE HUB POST WITH A MORE DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE METHODOLOGY

A CALL FOR RANKERS just after the Super Bowl.
Rankers for each team nominated players to rank. 10 Games Played Minimum Threshold. Players are associated with the team they finished the 2019 Season with.
The Grind. Utilize ranking threads for individual rankers broken up by positional group. Users were tasked with ranking players within the following tiers based on their evaluation: T-25, T-50, T-100, T-125 based on 2019 regular season only. There were no individual case threads. There were no arbitrary position limit caps. Just questions and rankings.
Users submitted their individual Top 125 list. Ranking out to 125 is new for this year.
User lists were reviewed for outliers by me with assistance from two former rankers. Users were permitted to correct any mistakes found. Once complete, lists were locked.
Reveal the list… right now.

So now, without further ado, here are the players ranked 20-11 in the NFL Top 100 Players of the 2019 Season!

#20 - Danielle Hunter - EDGE - Minnesota Vikings

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/R	N/R	N/R	32

Written By: uggsandstarbux
Khalil Mack. Von Miller. JJ Watt. Those are the names that come up when you mention edge players in the NFL over the last half a decade. Yet none have as many sacks as Danielle Hunter in the last two years. Hunter is continually passed over in the conversation of edge rushers. Even among young edge rushers like the Bosa brothers, TJ Watt, Myles Garrett, and Bradley Chubb, Hunter is forgotten. He only received 4 All Pro votes from AP (of a possible 50). He failed to make PFF’s All Pro team. Is it because he wasn’t a 1st round pick? Is it because the Vikings defense was already dominant before his arrival?
Hunter has improved every year he’s gotten into the league (88 pressures this year vs 67 last year vs 55 in 2016). His first couple years in the league, he rotated in behind Everson Griffen and Brian Robinson. Yet he holds the record for most sacks before his 25th birthday and was one of only a handful of players in 2019 with double digit sacks and 15+ TFLs last season. He earned an 89.0 overall grade from PFF and forced 3 fumbles this year.
Beyond the numbers, Hunter is a unit. He came out of LSU as one of the more raw pass rushers in his draft. However, under the tutelage of the mighty Andre Patterson, Hunter has become one of the most athletic, versatile, technical, dominant edge defenders in the game. He can beat you with a pure bull rush, but he can also beat you with his speed and agility. He’s picked up Everson Griffen’s deadly spin move and has the motor to work through double teams. He can win with an inside move, or he can play pure 3T for an entire game (a la vs NO). He’s got a great understanding of the game and is a force to be reckoned with. If you’re placing bets for DPOY in 2020, don’t waste your money on the big name guys like Aaron Donald (+750) or Khalil Mack (+1100). Don’t spend it on young up and comers, lke Nick Bosa (+1300) or TJ Watt (+1500) either. Place it on Danielle Hunter (+2300). He’s going to continue dominating as he gains more recognition and climbs toward stardom.

#19 - Chris Godwin - Wide Receiver - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/R	N/R

Written By: MysticTyph00n
At the beginning of the 2019 NFL season Bruce Arians said:
"I think Chris Godwin is going to be close to a 100-catch guy, especially because I think he can play in the slot,"...."He's never coming off the field."
Bucs fans thought this could be very well true in BA's system, especially with the departure of Desean Jackson which only really left Mike Evans as the only other real target on the team.
The 3rd round pick from Penn State showed up big time this year after having two relatively quiet seasons. Through 13.5 games (missing the final 2.5 due to a hamstring injury) he amassed 86 receptions for 1,333 yards, 9 TDs and only one drop(In fact he's only had 2 drops total in 2018 & 2019)He very well could have gone over 100 receptions , 1,500 yards as well as double digit TDs, but that's just projecting right?
According to PFF he was an absolute monster in the slot with an outstanding 96.5 grade, which shows he can line up anywhere on the field and still produce big time for the Buccaneers.
In 2020, I honestly expect Chris Godwin to have close to the same production, and possibly even better with how much he produces from the slot.
Please don't leave us…

#18 - Quenton Nelson - Offensive Guard - Indianapolis Colts

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	70

Written By: Zzyzx8
Selecting a guard 6th overall was a bold movie for second year GM Chris Ballard, even one as highly touted as Quenton Nelson. Casual fans hated it, while draft junkies loved it. Two years later, it’s become clear that the pick was a home run. Nelson’s selection single handedly turned around a unit that was largely responsible for a slew of injuries to Andrew Luck into one of the best units. Nelson’s second year was only better, cementing himself as one of the best guards in the league, a true road grader. He spent the past year terrorizing nfl defensive lineman en route to his second pro bowl and all pro selections. Plus, he pulled off what was by far the best touchdown celebration of the season

#17 - Jamal Adams - Strong Safety - New York Jets

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/R	18

Written By: ~~the_fuzzy_stoner~~ robdog1330
I would just like to start with a moment of silence for the fans of the New York Jets after Jamal Adams recently demanded a trade from that inept organization with a dumpster fire of a coach in Adam Gase.
Anyways, after an incredible sophomore season, Adams has kept up with his awesome play in his third season as one of the NFL's best and most versatile defensive players as well as the clear-cut best player on a football team that somehow won seven games. Adams, also known as President 'Mal, recorded an interception (which was returned 61 yards to the house), 7 passes defended, 11 hurries, and 36 stops, but that's not all! Adams also garnered 6.5 sacks (which is amazing for a DB) and forced two fumbles (like this one he returned to the house on my guy Daniel Jones 😔). With his exceptional play, the star safety was named to the 1st Team All-Pro as well as his second Pro Bowl selection (an honor which none of his other Jets teammates got this year).
What makes Adams so special is that he is exceptional against both the running and passing game. Whether he's with Gang Green or another franchise next year, I'd expect another stellar season out of Jamal Adams in 2020 (assuming there is one) and even as a Giants fan who watched him dominate my team this past season, I really appreciate the guy's play.

#16 - Derrick Henry - Running Back - Tennessee Titans

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/R	N/R	N/R

Written By: broccolibush42
DERRRRIIIICK HENRY!!!
This part man part tractor was the plow that turned our barren field into a bountiful wheat field full of Nashville Hot Chicken. This beautiful muscly man with a poop rat tail decimated opponents and General Sherman'd the ^{^{^AFC}} South. Totaling at 1540 yards and 16 Touchdowns in 15 games, with 6 coming from a slow start in a Mariota lead offense, he caught fire and dragged his nuts all over teams like the Chargers, Chiefs, Jags, Colts, Texans, Raiders and was showing just absolute dominance on the field. (Sadly we arent able to take the playoffs into account otherwise i'd gush over how he embarrassed a couple of scrub one and done teams).
Henry has this certain tenacity and a godlike level of endurance that just makes him an absolute beast in the 2nd half. He is just able to keep going, and going, and going, until finally, players get tired of it and turn into lead blockers for him. He is extremely hard to tackle to. Take a look at this play against the Chiefs in week 10, guys just bounce off him like he's running through toddlers. Derrick Henry is so hard to tackle that, according to PFF, Henry had over 1200 of his 1540 total yards after contact. Like this dude was getting hit at the line of scrimmage and he is just like, fuck this shit, i aint no dion lewis, and keeps going. How is this guy even real???
Another thing about Henry is his speed! Henry is a 6'3" 240 pound dude running 20+ MPH down the field when he breaks the open one. Like look at this speed he gets vs the Browns in week 1. Or this one against the Jags where he outruns guys and stiff arms the ones who barely managed to keep pace. Speaking of stiff arms, Derrick Henry has one of, if not, the BEST Stiff Arm in the league. If I had to pick a way to die, I think I would like Henry to stiff arm me in the face running at me at 21 miles per hour with this face, because there would be no greater honor to a titans fan than death by Henry. That concludes my Henry jerk fest. Here are some more highlights. ^{^{^{^and}}} ^{^{^{^here}}} ^{^{^{^are}}} ^{^{^{^the}}} ^{^{^{^real}}} ^{^{^{^link.}}}

#15 - Travis Kelce - Tight End - Kansas City Chiefs

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
N/A	N/R	84	N/R	28	31	13

Written By: DTSportsNow
Travis Kelce was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2013 draft. He wound up missing his rookie season due needing to receive microfracture surgery on his knee over the offseason and dealing with a bone bruise during the season. Since then he's received 4 All-Pro designations and was named to the NFL 2010s All-Decade team. He's also become the 1st TE in NFL history to have 4 straight 1,000+ yard seasons. Not bad considering how his career got started.
In 2019 he finished his 2nd straight season of 1,200+ yards and 3rd straight season leading the league in deep receiving yards by a tight end (274). He finished top 4 in overall TE grade for the 4th straight year (85.1), and was named to his second 2nd-team All-Pro designation. In the Sunday Night Football contest against the Chicago Bears he caught his 500th career reception, becoming the fastest TE in NFL history to reach that mark.
There's no doubt that Kelce is one of the best tight ends in the game, and winding up in the top 20 proves many believe him to be one of the very best players in the league. Since Gronk's decline it's essentially been between him and George Kittle for the top player at the position. He's a key component of what Andy Reid and the Chiefs like to do on offense, even as stacked as the offence is. With a Super Bowl victory and a few records to his name already his legacy will be decided by how long he can keep up his premier play. His partnership with Patrick Mahomes should take him to a locked up Hall of Fame bust.

#14 - Ryan Ramczyk - Offensive Tackle - New Orleans Saints

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	100	74

Written By: Dahki
In 2017, sb nation wrote an article claiming that Ryan Ramczyk wasn't a first round talent at LT. The site went so far as to say he would benefit from a switch to RT. In short, they ended up nailing that on the head. The three-year vet has spent almost the entirety of his career anchoring the right side of the Saints O-line after being picked at 32 overall, and boy, has it worked out for both the team and the Wisconsin alum.
Ram makes the /nfl top 100 list for two reasons. First, he was really good. Second, we really wanted to hammer in the idea that the Saints O-line as a whole was really good. Most notably, Ram exits the 2019 season with his first first-team all pro, and he was more than deserving of it. Similar to teammate Terron Armstead, Ram refused to allow Brees or Teddy to be touched, giving up no sacks on the season. Even better, Ram kept his QBs almost squeaky clean in the pocket, allowing just one hit on the entire season, good for 2nd best in the league among nominated tackles. And Ram didn't just do well in pass pro; he was PFFs top graded OT when run-blocking, showcasing his power and quickness from his spot. In total, Ram spent the 2019 season as the biggest challenge for opposing D-lines to overcome when facing the Saints.

#13 - Julio Jones - Wide Receiver - Atlanta Falcons

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
32	93	23	8	2	21	17

Written By: CokeZ3ro
It's a bird, it’s a plane, no it's Jet Jones! In his 9th season Julio continues to be one of the most dominant receivers in the NFL, and the undisputed best player on the team. He’s a force that defenses must give their full attention, and even then he can explode. Even when he doesn’t get the ball, his influence and abilities still shape the play, and better everyone around him. This past offseason Julio agreed to a three-year contract extension worth $66 million, making him the NFL’s highest paid WR, and extending him to 2023. Even though 2019 was a down year statistically, Julio continued to show why the money is worth it. In a “down year” Julio was 2nd in reception yards, 3rd in Yards/Game, and 1st in Scrimmage Yards/Touch, and made his 6th consecutive Pro-Bowl.
But stats can hardly capture the elite combination of athleticism and skill that makes Julio so great. A combination perfectly captured here where Julio is able to jump over the coverage of CB Leodis McKelvin and then tiptoe to complete the coverage on the way down. Later that same game, with the Falcons against the wall, Julio showed that no man can catch him in a 53-yard burst (shoutout to Jake Matthews for the Pancake Block). Julio utilized his route skills to make CB Pierre Desir eat turf before making a 34-yard reception; which likely would have been much more if Ryan didn’t underthrow it. He’s pretty good at catching too, exhibited as reaches over CB Quincy Wilson and manages to hold onto the ball through tackles from Wilson and SS Clayton Geathers to score. Doesn’t matter who you are, Luke Keuchly, Marshon Lattimore, AJ Bouye; doesn’t matter. bUt hE dOEsn’T gET tOUchDoWnS I hear the Fantasy owners say. Watch this and notice how often in the redzone Julio is serving to support his team (blocks, inside presence, taking double defenders), or is just ignored. He’s open more often people realize.
Even in a disappointing season for the Falcons, Julio continues to shine through as one of the NFL’s premiere combos of athleticism and skill. Julio is and will continue to be an absolute force for the offense.

#12 - Chandler Jones - EDGE - Arizona Cardinals

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
N/R	N/R	N/R	N/R	60	24	100

Written By: Beehay
In my write up of ChanJo last year, I mentioned that the return to the 3/4 (even if it's under Vance Joseph) will be huge for his stats. And boy howdy was it! At 30 years old and after double digit sack totals for 5 straight years, Jones set a career high of sacks at 19 this year. He had 8 Forced Fumbles, 53 Tackles, and 26 QB hits. Most of his stats improved from 2018, some more drastically than others. His pass coverage marginally improved but why the hell would you really want him to cover guys? (Don't say it Niners fans, DON'T SAY IT)
Chandler Jones is the prototype for edge defenders. He is what all other Defensive Coordinators wish they had. Strong, fast, smart, consistent. Here's a guys opinion and a breakdown. Here's some highlights because not everybody watched all 16 Cardinals games last year and I don't blame them. I think he will rank even higher next year if he stays healthy because he will finally get to settle into a defense again. Even if it's Vance Joseph's.

#11 - Ronnie Stanley - Offensive Tackle - Baltimore Ravens

Previous Ranks

2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/R	N/R	97

Written By: Letsgomountaineers5
Where to begin with Ronnie Stanley? Oh, how about a nearly minute long clip of him absolutely bullying First Team All Pro and NFC DPOY Chandler Jones. You like that? (Sorry Cards fans, but hey we all know Chandler Jones is a beast). Ronnie Stanley was the best LT in the league. No wait, actually he was the best overall tackle in the league. Actually, Stanley was the best lineman in the league, bar none. I truly believe Stanley was a top 5 player in the NFL last season and even tried (and failed/came to senses) to argue Stanley as a top 2 player. His dominance on the left side of that line was unprecedented.
I know stats don’t paint the entire picture, especially for OL, but I have to start there because his stats were unworldly as a blindside protector facing the best pass rushers the NFL has to offer. Going against the likes of TJ Watt twice a year, Carlos Dunlap twice a year, Myles Garrett, Chandler Jones, Nick Bosa, Shaq Barrett (need I go on), he allowed zero sacks and six pressures on 445 pass blocking snaps. Of tackles with at least 400 pass blocking snaps to allow 6 pressures or less, he was the only one. Wait, the only one? Let’s expand. 10 pressures on 400 snaps? Hmm. Only Ronnie Stanley. 15? Hmm only Ronnie Stanley. 20 and no sacks? Only Ronnie Stanley. Unreal.
So how does he do it? Well for starters, he has an elite pass rusher’s explosion as an offensive lineman. He can pack a pop that will knock the best rushers off line or on their ass without overextending. Just ask Nick Bosa. Refer back to the Chandler Jones lowlight reel for a second and check out how often he simply beats Jones (one of the most explosive and best bending edge rushers in the game) to his spot time and time again. Stanley is out of his stance so fast it looks like he’s false starting and, be it film review/sixth sense/sheer athleticism (my money is on all three), he hits the pass rushers’ marks before they do. Sometimes, he even chips defenders to the ground he doesn’t have a responsibility for. Because of these reasons, he’s basically the only lineman in the game not playing catchup and is tremendously equipped to react to counters. In the run game, he was a driving reason behind that team’s record setting running success. He can be a mauler, but with his speed also can pull like the best guards in the game and lead block for some of the fastest players in the game.
At the end of the day, his dominance in both pass blocking and run blocking makes him a worthy top 15 player, and if not for a tendency to underrate linemen, I believe he should’ve been a shoe-in for the top 10. If you read this far, thank you. Now I need to go puke after that glowing endorsement for a Raven.

LINK TO 2019 POSITIONAL GROUPING TRACKER

LINK TO 2019 RANKER SHEETS

LINK TO HUB

Schedule Change

Unveiling of ranks 10-6 will take place Monday, July 6 instead of Tuesday. Unveiling of ranks 5-1 will take place on Thursday, July 9. Thank you!

Arbitrage Betting Question

NFL Week 14 FanDuel Strategy Guide

Algos move the market in the short term, not retail/institutional/pension funds

My title of my post is the statement I stuck too from the very moment this selloff started. I've stayed consistent with this belief the entire time, whether we go up or down. If you just wanted any more proof, take a look at the Twitter link, as an additional piece of evidence. It's the same case in the recent up moves (the futures are contributing to the majority of the recent up move).
https://mobile.twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1248368169091239937
Retail, institutional investors, pension funds, etc. - they don't trade overnight futures. However you know who does? Stat arb algos as well as option trading firms/hedge funds/prop trading firms/bank risk-mitigation algos. For example if a hedge fund was put into a dicey risk situation, they turn on these algos to offload risk overnight. If they can't sell credit risk, they have to do it elsewhere like in ES futures. If an option market maker is short gamma and realizes oh crap, this is gonna cause me to be super long tomorrow with this move in ES, I've gotta hedge and turn on my overnight algo to sell first so I get less long deltas overnight.
So when you guys want to ask "who in the world is even selling" as we sold off and now "who in the world is even buying" as we go up, it's the algos. You are right, not many actual people are buying these days. It's the algos, and when I say algos, I mean the risk/liquidity algos.
Do you want to know why the algos are buying now? It's simple. Jerome Powell said he's buying credit ETFs. If you are a market maker, you have to sell these ETFs to them. Now you have to find a beta hedge. What's the best way to find that beta hedge? Buy ES futures. This then causes SPY to open higher. Now, if your algo was fast enough, you could have front ran the FED by buying HYG and JNK (this is why their NAV is trading at a massive premium), but if you weren't, well you get desperate as you get picked off from being short credit, so now you have to buy ES, SPY, and anything else you can. You might have to then buy SPX/SPY puts with it since you then have to protect your now new ES/SPY longs (which you didn't actually want to buy but were "forced" to buy),, which is why VIX hasn't dropped that much relative to how much SPY has gone up. It's all an algorithmically driven market.
This is why the entire market, on BOTH the down move and the now up move, has decoupled from the economy. So no, you guys may think people are FOMOing in. That's not true. Most investors aren't FOMOing in right now. The algos have just gone out of control on both the down and up moves and it's all technical.
Correlation (with other assets like credit and bonds), positioning (short squeeze and forced liquidations), option gamma (short gamma makes moves bigger), and short term stat arb strategies dominate the market short term. Retail and even big firms like Blackrock or Berkshire do not. Fundamentals win out long term. It may be months for SPY, and it is years for individual companies. No short term movement is ever controlled for by actual people wanting to put on a position.
As I said a month ago when we were selling off, if Citadel and Renaissance Technologies wanted to hold up the entire market for a day, they easily could. They may not want to if it's not in their favor, but they easily could. Two firms. That's enough. That about sums up this market. (EDIT: this part may have been extremely confusing due to my bad wording, but if you read some of the posts below with like me, MasterCookSwag, and ArseneWankerer, I try to clear up my meaning)
Another interesting and true fact? If options trading was ELIMINATED, the market would NEVER have sold off to 220 and it would have never skyrocketed back to almost 280 now. You may ask it's the same fundamentals right? Yes it is, the fundamentals of the economy and virus are the same, but elimiate options, and actually the entire market changes.
Finally, to add one more thing, if this wasn't clear, there needs to be a catalyst for the first wave of selling and buying, but everything after that is purely technical. For example, the catalysts would have been the virus and the oil shock in the wave of selling. The catalyst would have been the Fed in the wave of buying. However, the catalyst in itself shouldn't have produced a very large move. For example, imagine we go from 290 -> 270 as an example. The catalyst, if only traded by itself, should have moved it from 290 -> 285. However, the algos, with all the technical details I described above, then moves it from 285 -> 270. This is what I call "forced selling" or "fake selling," and I've alluded to this in my other posts. There is also "fake buying" in the reverse. However, "fake selling" is usually more powerful because on average people leverage up to be more bullish than bearish in an average market environment. So yes, the initial catalyst is important, but it's not the reason for the majority of short term moves.
I worked in the industry so I know this. You can call it a dirty secret, but hopefully if you see some actual statistics (see the above link on Twitter), you'll understand too. Fundamentals eventually will win longer term, but you know that saying about how the market can stay irrational before you stay solvent, well that's literally true because the market is algo driven. And as we progress into a state of better technology and even more options volume (think about how many people just recently started trading options) and other assets, this will be more and more true. One of these days, which could be like in 20+ years, if some black swan catalyst happens in conjunction with all of these technical factors I mentioned, you literally can see a 20% triple circuit breaker day immediately and like 90%+ of that drop would be all technical.
I'll try to answer any questions to the best of my ability.
EDIT: So for the people who are pointing out I don't understand what a MM is, let's do a easier example with NFL betting lines. Vegas acts like a MM in this regard. When an NFL line closes, is it 50/50 on both sides of the line? Nope. Vegas is still subject to risk. That's why sometimes they win or lose a lot of money depending on the outcome of an event, even though they are a "MM" too. Yes, Vegas will adjust a line based on some order flow, but it has their OWN MODELS TOO to determine what is fair, so they will adjust accordingly to the toxicity of the order flow. They will not just completely change their line so much so simply based pure order flow to keep on capturing 50/50. If you really think an options MM for example goes home every night flat every Greek, you are kidding yourself.
The point I was making above is a firm such as Citadel does so much volume that they have a huge impact on the market, whereas if you take them out of the market for say a month, the entire market microstructure changes in options and equities. Notice in my original post, I clearly said that these firms may not actually want to do this in their favor, but I am using them as an example saying they do so much volume they can IF they wanted to (in options you are more likely to do so than equities). I was emphasizing this point to show you guys how algos play such a large role in the market. It's similar to Vegas when they act as a MM to betting lines. They control the betting line at the end of the day. They aren't always 50/50 on both sides with no risk. Of course, Citadel and SIG in options will adjust their vol curves based on some order flow, but at the end of the day, they control most of the options vol pricing, which indirectly also affects equities in a big way when we have massive short gamma moves.
Similarily, apply it to sports betting. Let's say we shut down Vegas for a month and let only DraftKings price all the betting lines. I bet you the lines would be different and the volume would be different. Would they be completely different (like a -3 to a +3 line)? No, it wouldn't be that extreme, but it would be different and volume would be different and reaction to order flow would be different. Just think about it like this and apply it to trading.
EDIT2: this was also my post like ~3 weeks ago when we were like ~230. Too bad investing deleted my context of my post (since it relates to a lot of what I said below), but you can still see my title and my comments, so you know what I was calling. Yea sure, you can say I got lucky, but I wasn't wrong.
https://www.reddit.com/investing/comments/fjtkzh/we_are_very_close_to_the_bottom/
Addressing the above link, it's the type of logic that I am using in my below posts to probabilistically call bottoms like this. I'm never 100% sure (it's impossible to even be like 70%+ sure imo), but if you put some of this together (like when does the forced selling for the risk/liquidty algos stop?), you can actually call bottoms a bit easier than just winging it 50/50. Notice that this also coincided with March options expirations, as I mention, options are a big part. It also conincided with Jay Powell saying he's going to "alleviate the risks" (this is the forced selling from algos risk) he sees in the repo and now credit market.
EDIT3: u/brokegambler posted this, if you want a real professional talking about it https://www.realvision.com/market-makers-and-coronavirus-the-mechanics-of-a-market-sell-off?utm_source=contributor&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=43900_HK_GH_CONT_W1_LINK
EDIT4: ok last edit but https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pinningthestrike.asp is just a quick example of one phenomenon that happens due to options and market makers. There's not going to be many articles you can find online on about what I'm talking about, but this pinning the strike phenomenon is a well-observed effect that's actually writen about of what market makers can do in terms of controlling price action due to their risk. Interestingly, what we have in our case the last month is the opposite of this in which rather than strikes getting pinned, strikes get blown through to cause the huge moves (since we've been in short gamma the last month). The article isn't super detailed, but can give you a general idea of one effect.
EDIT5: sorry I'll add one last edit...I do realize maybe my wording was not the greatest in my post, and after reading it again, it does sound a bit "forceful" at times, so I apologize for that. This was meant to be more informative, but please don't take it as I am trying to force any one opinion on anyone. Apologize for that!

NFL Week 13 Cash Picks for FanDuel

CreateYoureReality NFL Week 10 Sunday Games Analysis and Picks

Week 10 TNF Recap: Whelp! 🙃 The algo was spot on with loving the Colts. However, my adjustments took me off the IND -9.5 Alt line I was going to play and put me on the HT/FT. Unfortunately it took Indy an extra quarter to get their defense rolling and they had a few shitty calls against them in the 1H. However, I did like the Colts to crush so I took a live play when they were down in the first quarter that was able to mitigate our losses. Big week 10 coming up, lets check out the games!
Singles (1-3, -5.05u)
Parlays (u)
Teasers (u)
BBDLS (u)

Sunday Games

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: I have skipped over this game all week. And now, Saturday night, I sit down to write and I still am unsure. My algo has PIT at -7.5. But, Big Ben and a few other have had to miss physical practices all week due to Corona protocols. Cincy is off a HUGE win over TEN (our algo was on that) however they just went into the bye. I would have rather taken them coming out of the bye off a loss. IDK, I think for now we say ride the dog or pass. There are many better spots today.

Washington at Detroit: Garbage game of the week! Even though both of these teams have playoff chances... Washington is playing musical chairs with their QB over the last few weeks. This week it looks to be Alex Smith again. He looked relatively good vs the Giants last week. If it weren't for some poor WAS special teams play (that gave up 10 points to NY) That would have been a real game.
Detroit is coming off back to back losses giving up 41 and 34, and who knows what is going on there... Are they going to keep the Coach? Galloday? Stafford?! Also, Detroit may be without two starters on the offensive line this week... Detroit has been atrocious against the run this year. I would look at Washington utilizing their pass catching running backs in Gibson and JDM to control this game and take pressure off Smith having to do too much.
My algo has this game as a Pick-em so we are going to ride with the visitors. Another game worthy of a little sprinkle action 😎

Houston at Cleveland: Here we have an AFC match up that CLE should be picking up if they want to be a playoff team. It is understandable for them to lose to the other playoff teams, but anyone with a losing record is a Must.
They will be facing a Texans team that last week came out of the bye and got their second win of the season... YAY! However, it was against the Jags...Starting a rookie QB...and they almost let the game go to OT after having an 11 point lead in the 4th....
Cleveland themselves is coming out of their bye and it appears to be the best time for them to have had it. They did lose the game going into the bye vs. the Raiders, however 100 mph winds and dropped passes seemed to be the game there. Now, coming out of the bye with 2 weeks of rest, they are returning two key starters on offense. #1 is the obvious Nick Chubb... and #2 is the Guard Wyatt Teller who was injured during the game vs. the Colts. Both look on track to return healthy and take on a Texans defense that is dead-last in the NFL against the run this season, allowing a whopping 159.5 rushing yards per game.
Here is the weather report for Cleveland on Sunday, "Mostly cloudy and windy with rain that should be ending in the afternoon. High 54F. Winds SW at 25 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 80%. Winds could occasionally gust over 50 mph. "
With the return of Chubb and Teller, the Texans horrible run defense, AND the weather concerns. I would expect Cleveland to get back to their roots and look to run the ball 60-65% of the time and mix in some play action shots.
My algo has this as 30-24 CLE however with the weather concerns and predicted game script I would lean on a much lower scoring game.
Some extra info to consider: Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games and they are 0-7 SU in their last 7 games as underdogs.

Jacksonville at Green Bay: Bottom of the barrel Jaguars travel to Green Bay to take on the rested Packers who are off a win 10 days ago vs. the 49ers. This should be a GB game all day. In fact, this is most likely going to be my pick in the $100M Golden Ticket on DK. This does point to a shootout with something like a GB 34-17 repeat performance. However, Just like the Browns game the weather report is dangerous for shootouts. "Cloudy and windy. There will be periods of light rain in the morning. High 41F. Winds W at 25 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 70%. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph." Rain and snow are manageable, but heavy winds make it a running game script more often than not.
My algo has GB 31-20 so I don't think I feel comfortable laying the 13.5. However, JAX is JAX, so I definitely don't feel comfortable laying with them on the road with a rookie QB in bad weather...
This game is most likely a pass for me except for some Aaron Jones props.

Philadelphia at NY Giants: Battle for the NFC EAST. Wow that sucks, considering these two teams have a combined record 5-11-1. Philly is coming out of a bye and returning a ton of offensive talent. "Alshon Jeffery will make his season debut after not receiving an injury designation, while Miles Sanders will start at running back for the first time since Week 6 (knee). Lane Johnson will start at right tackle after not receiving an injury designation. Jason Peters will start at left tackle. "
The Giants however are starting to come together defensively. Their offense is still meh, but their defense has kept them in their last 5 games (with two wins over WAS and 3 losses by a FG or less each time.
~~For me this come down to the same thing as the next game. Give me a home team, catching points, in a divisional game that is the second meeting.~~
Ehhh, during my morning poop I decided that the majority of bettors should be thinking the same thing here. Maybe I shouldn't overthink, but I'm back on the Eagles side. 💩

Tampa Bay at Carolina: Big game for Tampa Bay here. Losing last week to the Saints was a huge stumble for them, basically giving up control of winning their division. Carolina put up another hard fight and almost gave the Chiefs an upset, losing by only 2! In fact, since that last game vs. Tampa Bay the Panthers are 5-0 ATS when in the underdog role.
Normally, I would be all over Carolina. My algo actually has this as TB -4... Throw that in with TB having back to back poor showings prior and it seems like a perfect spot to take the home dog and the points.
However, when we look closer at when Brady has struggled this year, it's when the opposing team is generating pressure and creating sacks. Fortunately for Tampa Bay, Carolina does neither of those. The Panther have only 10 sacks and 23 QB hits so far this season. They are more of a drop back 7 or 8 and give up short stuff, but don't give up the long balls. Which is perfect for Brady to get back into his comfort zone.
Still even with Brady having more time in the pocket and TB probably righting the ship in the win column, I don't think there is value in the -6. Carolina is one of those pesky teams that is playing close games and this IS the second meeting for these two.
Extra notes: Brady 19-6 ATS after a loss. 7-1 ATS after a 20 points loss....On the other side, Bridgewater is 21-4 ATS in his career as an underdog including 5 straight covers as a dog this season...

Denver at Las Vegas: Another divisional matchup. This one features the up and down Broncos coming off a loss who are 2-2 since the return of Drew Lock taking on the Raiders who are having an up season starting the first half 5-3. Even though the Raiders are playing at home for the first time in weeks and are allowing fans to this game, my algo is still showing this as only LV -1. It heavily favors the over and likes a lean on the Raiders to win, but the spread is far too high for me to consider Las Vegas.
Could be a spot to look at the Broncos value with some points but Lock has been bad in the first 3 quarters of most of his games, only really getting hot in the 4th when teams are up and drop into prevent D. I could see him starting faster today since he is taking on a Raiders D, however I thought the same thing vs. ATL recently and he stunk it up.
Jerry Judy is my prop look in this one.

Buffalo at Arizona: Two similar high ceiling offenses meet in this one. At the start of the week I was all Buffalo. In fact, I took them on Thursday in my BBDLS with the Colts and others. However, after running the algo and checking the news my pick has shifted FIRMLY to the Cardinals. First of all, my algo spits this out a 25-28 game in AZ favor. However, with todays news of the Bills TE, two corners, and a safety on the covid list and not traveling for game, That pushes a lean to a strong lean.
Then, we look at each teams strengths and weaknesses. Both teams have potent offenses with mobile QBs and deep threat WRs, so basically a wash there. Defensively The Bills rush defense has been horrrrrible giving up 146 ypg over their last 5 games. On the other team, the AZ rush defense is not all the best, ranking overall 22nd in the league. So slight edge to AZ there. However, when we look at Buffalo losing their deep and edge players due to Covid this week I think we can safely say the edge is on the AZ side.
This is another perfect game to try a Same Game Parlay however I would be weary of the total. 56.5 is rather high. I like the over on 51 and below, but over 51 it loses its value.

LA Chargers at Miami: This is a game I am excited to watch. My algo really likes Herbert and Burrow so it will be exciting to watch at least one of them in this game. There isn't much to this one. My algo has it as a Pick-em. Miami has placed two starters in the front seven on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Chargers Starting RB is now Bellange, coming home for a revenge game against a weak front 7... Behind him is the best rookie QB we have seen since Patty cakes...
MIA had a surprisingly big win last week but that high emotion leads me to believe they will start this game a little flat. If LA gets a lead, this game is over.

Seattle at LA Rams: So this one actually hurts to write. I am a big SEA fan this year. I have a future on them to win the NFC and also the SB. However, I am also fond of this LA Rams team this year. I expected them to get over their SB slump (that the 49ers are in right now) and win at least 8/9 games this year.
My algo (as weird as it seems) is spitting out LAR -3.5 in a 27-23.5 style contest. I am still not sure I can place this bet on the Rams. Even tho the algo speaks, the Rams have only really beat the NFC East and the Bears this year. They haven't faced a QB like Russ yet, nor one that has weapons like DK and Lockett.
TBH this seems like the perfect game to middle on. Divisional battle. Possibly take SEA to +8.5 and balance it with some LAR ml or even LAR +3.5.

San Francisco at New Orleans: Beep Boop Beep Boop! Alert alert. This game is so confusing! I feel like NO could win easy 34-17, or SF could upset win some 27-24 grind out with some trick plays and jets sweeps.
Obviously because of those many possible scenarios, the value is found in SF +10. Seems to be the perfect spot for it too. SF lost a blowout on primetime last Thursday and the Saints won a blowout in primetime last Sunday. Public money should be alll over the Saints. If taking a big dog is too much of a sweat for you there are some decent props to look at in this game. SF is getting back a TON of offensive weapons and I expect them to look for a lot of short completions that allow the receivers a safer way to get yards.
As crazy as this sounds, my algo actually has SF as -1.5 for this matchup... Im guessing it is assuming Jimmy G and Kittle are in, along with Sanders and Thomas being out but still and 11 point difference is the biggest I have seen all year.

Baltimore at New England: Last game on the slate and it has the scariest feeling. I LOVE Baltimore this year. Outside of the Chiefs, they are my other AFC contender to go against the Seahawks in the Superbowl. The looked good last week bouncing back from their two losses to smack around the Colts team.
On the flip side, NE needed a 4th quarter comeback to beat... THE JETS.... who by the way, put up 30 on them...
Should be a slam dunk Baltimore go go go...
But what's scary to me is 94/93 % of the tickets AND the cash are on the Ravens. And allll week the line has barely moved. Even the Saints vs. the 49ers moved from 7.5-10 throughout the week.
So while I will need a Baltimore win to wrap up all my parlays and teasers on the day, some thing is very scary about those percentages. Vegas RARELY pays out 90 percent of bettors....

Singles (60-81, -35.26u)

WAS +4.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
WAS ml (0.5u to win 0.88u)
Chubb Anytime TD (2.4u to win 2u)
Chubb 71.5 Rush Yards Over (2.2u to win 2u)
Chubb 15.5 Attempts Over (1.15u to win 1u)
Mercedes Lewis Anytime TD (1u to win 6u)
Jerry Judy 58.5 Rec Yards (2.5u to win 2u)
AZ -2.5 (2.4u to win 2u)
Kyler Murray Over 51.5 Rush Yards (3.1u to win 2u)
AZ Team Total 29.5 Over (1.1u to win 1u)
Hopkins to score TD and AZ to win (2u to win 6u)
Ballange Anytime TD (3u to win 12u) This was going to be a 1u play but every website had this prop at somehwere around -112 to -200. But for some reason, Draftkings has it at +400
Ballange 2 TDs (1u to win 40u) I mean the price was sooooo good, how could we not in a revenge game where he is the primary back. 🤑

Parlays (6-23, +37.76u)

GB ml, PHL ml, CLE ml, AZ +3.5, LAC +7.5 (FB to win (170.73u) How about William Hill! Offering a 50u FreeBet just for creating an account and depositing. Lets get it! 🤩

Teasers (2-2, +27.38u)

PHL +3, WAS +10, CLE +3, LAC +8.5, SEA +9.5 (FB to win 22.5u)

BBDLS (0-44, -35.69u)

Indy ml, CLE ml, LV ml, MIA ml, TB ml, NO ml, BAL ml, SEA +2, BUF ml, GB HT/FT ml (2u to win 207.9u) This was put in at the beginning of the week. I would cash it out if I could, but it's not available for cashout so we just have to ride it.
I have another 5 BBDLS for 4.2 U in. Lets go Bellange, score two TDs! 😎

best prop bets nfl week 6 video

Each week we’ll select our best player prop bets, and after nailing all three last week, we’re looking to make it a super six out of six here. Let’s take a look: 1. QB Daniel Jones under 240.5 passing yards. Daniel Jones and the New York Giants have their best opportunity to get a win as they host NFC East rivals Washington. Best Prop Bet from Every NFL Week 6 Game by Mike Fanelli October 17, 2020 0 comments Thanks to Covid-19, the NFL had to do a lot of schedule shuffling last week, which caused the Thursday night game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills to be pushed back to Monday night. Look for Week 6 NFL Prop Bets? I have you covered! This week there are four props including three running back props that can provide value. But before we proceed ahead, let’s take a look back to Week 5 which was a great week for me and this column.I went 3-1 thanks to Colt McCoy, Kirk Cousins, and Michael Thomas! Best NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 6 (2020) Joe Burrow had a nightmarish day against the Ravens. A gruesome injury to Dak Prescott helped label Dalton Schultz’s prop a failure. Let’s try to get over last week’s losing effort with some hot props for this weekend. We’ll get right into the players and props to watch for in Week 6. Our favorite NFL best bets and player props for Week 6, updated daily leading up to Sunday's kickoff. The latest news and our best Week 6 prop plays. Three NFL player prop bets to consider in Week 6 Anthony Amico FTNBets Player props are one of the best markets to attack for sports Here are three props worth considering for Week 6. Week 6 sees us entering with an overall record of +10.56 units and an 11.5% return on investment when it comes to the NFL prop bet market. Each week, our NFL betting team will be providing you with our favorite prop bets to help win you some cash. This article will break down various angles through all of Sunday and Monday’s games, as we continuously update our selections as more lines Some of the numbers were surprising, while a handful remained off the board. Here are some of our early NFL Week 6 picks and best bets based on those opening betting lines. Continue to check back as we update this article with more of our early looks. NFL Week 6 Picks: Is there any value in the opening betting lines and odds? This week, we’re going to see Monday Afternoon Football. Welcome to 2020. It’s been a bumpy ride and it looks like it will continue, but we’re seeing a lot of stand-alone games, which is fine by me. Here are five NFL prop bets to make in Week 6 we feel good about bringing you to the pay window. NFL Week 6 prop bet payday Your best bet remains BetOnline if you want good props early in the week, but it’s anyone’s guess when props will ever go live. Even so, there are some good week six NFL player prop bets to target, as seen above. You can definitely take the logic associated with these picks and use it for other props, as well as apply it to some game wagers.

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Week 6 NFL Player Props to Bet! - YouTube

Jordan Sharp is back with his Week 6 NFL props for the Sunday slate of games. He is 40-30-2 on the season in his NFL props! Browse the best NFL sportsbooks: ... Don't just limit your NFL wagers to spreads and totals. Monique Vag gives her six favorite team and player props for Week 6 as well as an exclusive FireFan b... Episode 14 of Prop Shop — a sports betting podcast from Covers.com that focuses exclusively on player props —dives into NFL Week 6. Host Brandon DuBreuil and... We're back for Week 6 as we give the betting lowdown on all the games. We kick things off with the defending Super Bowl champs heading into Buffalo (7:29). A... https://monkeyknifefight.comWe're talking player props for Week 6 of fantasy football, more specifically the Thursday Night Football game between the New Yor... NFL Predictions & Top Bets For NFL Week 6 Games. Every Week In 2020! Picking NFL Week 6 Games. HypeCheck Social Media Twitter https: ... NFL Betting Lines: Week 6 Advice, Best Picks, And Prop Bets is presented by ! NFL Daily and have an exclusive offer just for YOU -- head to and use PROMO c...

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Welcome to the reveal for players ranked 20-11 for this year’s NFL Top 100 Players for the 2019 Season!

#20 - Danielle Hunter - EDGE - Minnesota Vikings

#19 - Chris Godwin - Wide Receiver - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

#18 - Quenton Nelson - Offensive Guard - Indianapolis Colts

#17 - Jamal Adams - Strong Safety - New York Jets

#16 - Derrick Henry - Running Back - Tennessee Titans

#15 - Travis Kelce - Tight End - Kansas City Chiefs

#14 - Ryan Ramczyk - Offensive Tackle - New Orleans Saints

#13 - Julio Jones - Wide Receiver - Atlanta Falcons

#12 - Chandler Jones - EDGE - Arizona Cardinals

#11 - Ronnie Stanley - Offensive Tackle - Baltimore Ravens

LINK TO 2019 POSITIONAL GROUPING TRACKER

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Week 6 NFL Player Props to Bet! - YouTube