The best laid PLANs of mice and men often go awry. Welcome back to another effortpost by me generally on the developing arms race in East Asia, this time covering the People's Liberation Army Navy, hereafter referred to as the "PLAN", and its massive growth... and... mostly, well, its massive growth. What that means is mostly covered in other posts about how other countries are responding to it. The why is a bit difficult because, well, China is not well known for open debate, or open anything, really, which will turn up repeatedly.
First And Last Stand Of The Tin Can Navies [ASEAN + Australia and the smaller adversaries China may contend with]
Boned: Problems in the US Air [and space!] Force
--Unnamed-- effortpost on Japanese military matters, mostly about how weird the JSDF status is
--Unnamed--effortpost on Indian military matters, and why they can't focus on China or buy anything that works
--Unnamed--effortpost on the rest of the PLA, mostly the air force though
--Unnamed--effortpost on the rest of the US Armed Forces, mostly talking about how the marines are changing and the Army's new love affair with INF-busting weapons
Conclusion?
Glossary: PLA = People's Liberation Army = the armed forces of the People's Republic of China, or China PLAN = People's Liberation Army Navy = the naval forces of the PLA PLANAF = People's Liberation Army Navy Air Force = the air force of the navy of the PLA Ashm = Anti-ship missile, cruise missile unless specifically described as otherwise--there's only one anti-ship ballistic missile in existence and its efficacy and whether or not it functions is questionable CIWS = close-in weapons system, like the Phalanx gun or Goalkeeper VLS = vertical launch system for missiles AEGIS = Aegis Combat System if described specifically in that context, a US naval warfare system, but we'll usually be talking about "Chinese AEGIS", which is a nomiker used by the Chinese media in particular comparing the Type 346 radar to the AN-SPY family, with which it shares numerous technical characteristics--but how comparable the "Chinese AEGIS" system is to what the US uses is a complete unknown. SAM = Surface-to-air missile, in this case usually a S-300 derivative First Island Chain = The islands, stretching from Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan, which keep China inside its littoral seas much as the GIUK [Greenland-Iceland-UK] gap has kept various continental powers out of the Atlantic. Some PLAN equipment you might see described--the nomenclature is confusing and a relic of the cultural revolution, and as a result China now has more Types than the British. Type 003 = China's new conventionally powered supercarriers, currently under construction Type 002 = China's first truly "operational" carrier Type 001 = China's first carrier, built on a Soviet hull purchased from Ukraine ostensibly to make a floating casino Type 055 = Guided-missile cruiser, though generally called a destroyer it's probably more descriptively labeled a cruiser Type 052D = Guided-missile destroyer using "Chinese AEGIS" Type 052/051B/052B/052C = the gradual progression of evolving Chinese naval tech, largely built as practice/demo ships like the Type 001. Some of the earlier ones are steam-powered but by the Type 052C you have something almost as advanced as the Type 052D, albeit with turbine problems Type 054A = the standard modern frigate of the PLAN Type 053[anything] = old PLAN frigates Type 096 = China's newest SSBN class, under construction Type 094 = China's first functional SSBN class, very noisy Type 092 = China's first "SSBN", believed to have never left port with an actual nuke on board Type 095 = China's newest SSN class, under construction Type 093 = China's current SSN class, noisy Type 091 = China's first SSN class, dumb dumb dumb and is at a 1950s tech level Type 039[A] = China's new SSK class Kilo = China's older SSK class, imported from Russia Sovremenny = China's first capable anti-air destroyers, imported from Russia
1. The Last Time A Rising Navy Challenged A Dominant Foe
The last time we've seen something like this was in the late 19th century. After the First World War shipbuilding was restricted by the landmark Washington Naval Treaty, one of the first great arms control treaties, and during the Cold War the Soviet Union never really had any hopes of surpassing American naval power. China, however, seems intent on replacing the US as the world's dominant naval power, or at least building a force that can stop the US Navy, even combined with the forces of Japan and other regional allies. The nations in question, of course, in the last naval arms race, were the United Kingdom and a newly-unified Germany. Germany never reached the level of the UK, but seriously threatened it. Previously the UK had maintained a policy of having more ships than the next two largest fleets combined, but this was no longer possible, and the UK legitimately was fearful for its naval supremacy. It didn't last too long in the end--under a decade--and a resumption was foiled by first a world war and then the Washington Naval Treaty. The impact of the arms race, though, was massive. It set Germany and the UK at odds with each other, it resulted in a general buildup of warships pretty much everywhere [South America was, believe it or not, one of the biggest offenders there], established Germany for a time as the world's second naval power, having eclipsed both France and Russia and turning a small coastal defense navy into something that was able to defeat the Royal Navy itself, though never comprehensively enough to change the course of the first world war. China dwells in a much different situation than Germany did at the turn of the last century, so we can only extend the analogy so far--substituting in Japan for the UK, India for Russia, and so on is possible but not, in my view, educational. However, we can see many of the same elements playing in here. China seems intent on replacing the US as a dominant power, or at least as regional hegemon--the ancient tributary system seems to lie fairly heavily on Chinese minds--and in order to do that, it must be able to have some degree of power projection and the capability to deny the US Navy access to areas within the first island chain. It remains to be seen, however, how successful that quest will be. Much as with the dreadnought battleships, I wouldn't be surprised if we never actually do find out if most of the shiny naval toys people have built actually work. But their mere existence shows the mutual hostility developing in the region and demonstrates the size of the Chinese threat. Another lesson learned here is that China, like Germany, may not develop a naval force capable of defeating the US comprehensively, but only partially, and that one of the powers--in this case, China--might be pressured to strike first before the US Navy can close the gap. That ~2030 gap I talked about in my last post is, I think, an especially vulnerable point, because China may look at a degraded, but rejuvenating US Navy, then at their own capable forces, and decide to strike then in Taiwan and the South China Sea, only to back down when the US Navy again eclipses them. Whether or not that will happen, we will see--but I find it a very dangerous and perhaps likely possibility.
2. What the PLAN looked like 20 years ago
The PLAN has undergone an absolutely stunning evolution in the past two decades. In the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis the US could intimidate China with a pair of aircraft carrier strike groups and China could do pretty much nothing about it. Now the US is afraid of sending anything more than a destroyer through the strait. Twenty years ago, the PLAN was a bit of a joke. Even Taiwan figured it could hold the seas against the PLAN. It consisted of a few tens of outdated coastal-defense frigates, some Soviet-era diesel-electric subs, and a large number of unsophisticated missile craft. The pride of the Chinese fleet were a handful of destroyers assembled using cobbled-together Western technology--copied French missiles, American gas turbines, the lot. According to American accounts at the time, the instructions for the equipment hadn't even been translated. The most advanced ship in the fleet used steampower. There were nuclear submarines, but of 1950s quality. Of particular note was the fact that the Chinese fleet had no area air defense capabilities--their premier surface-to-air-missile was an unlicensed knockoff of the French Crotale, and couldn't shoot anything outside of visual range, at high altitudes, or really doing anything more sophisticated than trying to kill their ships with low-altitude dumb bombing runs. In the past twenty years, however, the PLAN has, much like the German Navy towards the end of the 19th century, gone from an afterthought to the world's second most powerful force. It began, as modern China's military capabilities almost all began, with the looting of the former Soviet Union for naval technology. While Soviet naval tech was generally lacking, it was much better than anything else China could get its hands on after the arms embargo placed on it in the 1990s by the US and Europe in response to Tienanmen and the end of the Cold War. China bought Soviet diesel submarines, Soviet air-defense destroyers, and Soviet aircraft carriers, which it promptly left lying around [and turned one of them into a theme park]. This was combined with copies of various pieces of Western, mostly European, technology for everything from sonars to surface-to-air missiles. China then began developing its first modern indigenous surface combatants, the Type 052C, but there were still problems. The engines were Ukrainian and had reliability trouble, the gun jammed, there was no VLS. It is really in the last ten years that things have begun to move extremely quickly, and even only in the latter portion of the decade. In 2012 the Type 001 Liaoning entered service, and although it remains more of a training ship than an operational vessel, and is held back by a poor carrier aircraft, the mere fact that China "built" a carrier was a surprise to many. In 2014 the first Type 052D destroyer came online. It had learned the lessons from the Type 052C, and in just the last six years at least ten have entered service, with a class size of about 23 expected. This rapid expansion is what has frightened competing navies the most--in a little over a decade, the PLAN is constructing more destroyers than the British, French, and Australian navies have in service combined. It is also building the Type 055, which has generally been called a "destroyer" despite being more aptly described as a cruiser in line with the Ticonderoga-class. China has also built 30 modern frigates in the past decade, which has also swelled its numbers, along with numerous smaller corvettes, submarines, and so on. This is why the PLAN has become such an object of concern. While it cannot challenge the US Navy yet, at least outside its littoral zones, the decline of the USN and rapid expansion of the PLAN means that it is a serious threat. And the speed at which it has developed has made many fearful. As recently as 2010, the idea of China operating an aircraft carrier or modern destroyers seemed distant, possibly preposterous. Now China speaks openly of having a six-carrier fleet in the 2030s, although, as with many of China's plans to operate full US-replicated tech and doctrine, these may have somewhat caved to realism. China is mighty, but it has already done the easy part--the last part is much harder, in economics and in military matters. Building the software, the institutional knowledge, the hardware to compete with the US Navy will prove difficult.
3. What the PLAN looks like now--submarines
Submarines are one of the PLAN's weak spots, particularly nuclear submarines. China is, however, making some fairly rapid advances in this area. Their nuclear submarine program has been considered a bit of a joke for some time. In the late 1950s when all the cool kids great powers were getting nuclear submarines, China decided [or at least Mao did] that China needed nuclear submarines too. About 16 years later, the product of this effort finally emerged as the Type 091 submarine. Based on 1950s technology, with poor radiation shielding and basically nothing done in the name of noise reduction, and not even a teardrop hull, the Type 091 was probably more of a threat to the sailors who were on it than anyone else, except maybe the two Tench-class submarines that Taiwan operates, which use 1940s technology and are the world's longest-serving submarines, though they're mostly used for training nowadays. Even then, my money would be on the Tench despite the upgrades the PLAN has made to the Type 091. There's only so much you can do to put lipstick on a pig. China also produced an SSBN, the Type 092, which was probably the only submarine more useless than the Type 091. About the only useful thing it did for the PLAN was that it served as a test platform for SLBM launches. Reports suggest that the Type 092 is the noisiest SSBN ever made, and is thought to have only ever undertaken a single patrol. It stayed at port for so long that it was thought to have sunk in an accident. And the experience turned the PLAN off from building SSBNs for over twenty years, until the Type 094 came online in 2007. More recent submarines are growing in capability, though. The Type 094 is not the noisiest SSBN ever made, and may not even be the noisiest in current service--that honor going to the Delta III operated by the Russian Navy, which uses 1970s technology, and, which, according to the US Office of Naval Intelligence, is about as noisy as the Type 094. The Type 093 is also moderately capable--it actually functions and can fire anti-ship missiles. However, the Type 093 is still considered only comparable to the Soviet Victor III class, again using 1970s technology. Future submarines have not yet been seen, but expectations are that China will make another step forward to late 1980s or early 1990s tech levels, producing something on par with the Los Angeles or Akula for the first time. China also operates a fairly capable fleet of coastal diesel-electric submarines. While some are quite old--the Type 035--most are pretty average for the global submarine force, a mix of Kilos and domestic AIP designs. The large number of boats in operation and their anti-ship missile capability means that these should be considered a real threat, at least in the littoral waters near to China, but they aren't decisive by any means, especially since China is facing off against such threats as Japan's Soryu class, probably the most advanced diesel-electric sub in existence. In conclusion, the PLAN is still pretty weak on the submarine front--weaker here than on anything but its carrier force, but its capabilities are advancing rapidly and should not be underestimated.
4. What the PLAN looks like now--surface combatants
The surface fleet is definitely the most impressive and capable portion of the PLAN, no questions about it. China once had a fleet consisting mostly of coastal frigates and missile boats. As recently as 2000, its fleet had no real area-air-defense destroyers, and no SAMs that could operate outside visual range. Now, though, the PLAN operates tens of advanced guided-missile destroyers, advanced frigates, and still retains a large number of small, stealthy missile boats. The major focus of Chinese warships appears to be on anti-air, with anti-surface being a somewhat secondary concern for all but the smallest vessels. This makes sense when you realize that the primary focus is, at least for the moment, on using land-based aircraft to strike against hostile fleet formations using long-range anti-ship missiles, in a very Soviet sort of way--"Backfire raids" using long-range land-based aircraft with anti-ship missiles were one of the US Navy's major concerns during the Cold War, and the very reason for the F-14's existence along with the AIM-54 Phoenix it carried. However, China has been developing anti-surface capabilities as well using ashms and land-attack cruise missiles [generally the same thing, actually]. Since China has finally developed a VLS system that allows it to use the same launcher for multiple missiles, its most recent ships have become more versatile in that role. How effective these ships are at that task is, however, a relatively open question. Their radars at least seem to quite sophisticated, using flat-panel AESA, and have been dubbed "Chinese AEGIS" by the highly reliable Chinese domestic media. The basic platform their surface-to-air missiles are based on also seems to be fairly capable--the HQ-9 is an S-300 derivative, a respectable SAM system though, again, how capable it is against opponents in an active electronic warfare environment is questionable, and it has basically no capabilities against stealth aircraft like the F-35 as far as anyone knows. The efficacy of their CIWS, again, is open to question. Really this is true of everything about the modern PLAN, and PLA in general. The PLA is secretive, has not exported most of its hardware, and has developed largely independently of foreign militaries, though it is definitely influenced by them. Now that the PLAN has moved away from simply copying foreign hardware and patching it together, its capabilities are much harder to discern. However, they should be taken as a very real threat, and not written off. My guess would be that their warships are about as capable as most of their non-American counterparts, save those equipped with AEGIS, but that's all my guess is---a guess.
5. What the PLAN looks like now--carriers
The PLAN currently has two carriers in service, and two more known to be under construction, and most suspect that it will build several more. However, at the moment, the PLAN's carrier force is largely a paper tiger, designed around training. The first carrier, the Type 001, basically was a "how do you build a carrier" kit bought from Russia, possibly by accident--the "fully functional" Minsk ended up as a theme park, believe it or not. The hull was purchased from Ukraine and then completed in China years later. It is also believed that the PLAN may have learned some things about aircraft carriers from the HMAS Melbourne, which was sold to a Chinese firm for scrapping--rumor has it the PLAN had no clue this had happened and then had a field day looking at all the stuff that hadn't been taken out. This was back in the old days when nobody could imagine that China would have an aircraft carrier. The Type 002, however, is built from scratch, but isn't particularly capable especially as it's a ski-jump carrier, leaving the Type 003 the first carrier which will prove actually useful. The main thing holding China's carrier fleet back, though, is a lack of a suitable aircraft. Originally China was considering purchasing Su-33s from Russia, hardly a good carrier-based aircraft but functional, but after Russia discovered that China had been mucking about building a Su-27 derivative without asking the deal fell through [China tells a different story, saying that Russia demanded exorbitant amounts to reopen production which it was unwilling to pay for a nearly obsolete aircraft]. As a result China operates the J-15 as its naval fighter, with... less than stellar results. It's extremely heavy, and, if it takes off from the carrier, has minimal range if carrying anything at all--it can't take more than two short range air to air missiles into the sky to fight enemy aircraft. However, the J-15 isn't really intended for combat service--it's intended to teach China how to run carriers, and it seems to work well enough for that task, aside from the multiple fatal crashes. There is, however, thought to be a new carrier fighter in the pipeline--most say the J-31/FC-31, which has reduced RCS and a number of carrier-unique features, is being pitched as a carrier-based aircraft and will serve as China's carrier fighter in the future. China also lacks any fixed wing carrier-based airborne early warning, which could prove troublesome--a lack of AEW means that its view is limited by the horizon--and has no resupply aircraft like the C-2 Greyhound. As a result, for the moment at least, China lacks an effective carrier force, but it is likely to continue developing rapidly in the next decade and become a fairly substantial threat. Remember that as recently as 2010, a Chinese aircraft carrier seemed preposterous to many people, and now they have two.
6. Some attention to land-based aircraft
Land-based aircraft as a naval weapon are not generally used by the US, which has never had a reason to develop them as a doctrinal focus. Sure, you could potentially envision them as being used, and there even were situations where they were utilized, but it just wasn't generally a priority or how things were done. For China, though, taking influence from the Soviets, and lying on littoral seas with hostile powers in the First Island Chain, land-based aircraft and missiles are a key part of doctrine. Although this is often viewed as a new thing, called A2/AD [anti access/area denial], it's really the result of a long historical evolution of naval power, probably most refined by the Soviet Union. As a result, land-based naval aviation plays an important role, firing anti-ship missiles at standoff distances at enemy vessels, and shore-based launchers of anti-ship missiles are also an important weapon. The combination of these systems means that venturing within China's littoral seas is a dangerous proposition during war, and some waters, like those of the Taiwan Strait, are effectively considered closed at this point in the event of hostilities breaking out. For this reason air superiority is also important in this sort of naval warfare, as if either side gains air superiority it can pummel its opponents with air-launched anti-ship missiles. China's capabilities in this area are sophisticated and should not be underestimated, but they are unlikely to go through a rapid period of growth like the PLAN's fleet. And a brief note dedicated entirely to the DF-21D "Carrier killer" that the PLA likes to show off. It's a pretty impressive capability, on paper, using a ballistic missile to hit a carrier. The CEP [circular error probable] means that it could even happen, presuming that an aircraft carrier was good enough to sit in one place, not moving, long enough to be detected by China. Aircraft carriers look big, but the seas are huge, and they're surprisingly hard to find. They also move quite fast, in excess of of 35mph/55kph, and thus by the time the ballistic missile has launched it might well be out of range given the fact that ballistic missiles are not particularly known for their maneuverability in terminal stages, at least not in the realm of miles. The DF-21D is not a particular threat to the modern aircraft carrier. It could potentially be one if it evolves into a hypersonic boost-glide vehicle, but that's a whole additional can of worms, that I might address a different day.
7. The PLAN's plans for the future--what will it look like in 2030?
Unfortunately the PLAN is not exactly the most open of navies, as I've repeatedly mentioned. There are no public debates over acquisitions programs, no big fleet shape plans, relatively little detail. However, a few things are fairly sure bets or publicly announced. China has repeatedly announced plans to build a six-carrier force, including the Type 001 and Type 002, but also a pair of Type 003 [already under construction] conventionally powered supercarriers and a pair of Type 004 nuclear powered supercarriers. However, it seems that the Type 004 is currently on hold. Why, exactly, is unclear, but it seems to be technical difficulties, which are not particularly surprising given that China's experience with nuclear maritime propulsion seem to be rather limited and have had poor results in their submarine fleet. The costs were also expected to be too high--China does not have an unlimited quantity of money, despite what it may flaunt, and nuclear carriers are expensive to develop especially given that China has not built a nuclear-powered surface ship before. A new carrier-based fighter is almost certainly in the cards because the J-15 is pretty much useless. The FC-31 seems by far the most likely candidate but it could be another aircraft we haven't seen yet. The addition of this aircraft will greatly improve the PLAN's capabilities. China also has two Type 075 amphibious assault ships/LHDs under construction, and I would expect this class to be much more prolific. These ships are much more affordable than the full carriers, and focus on areas in which China is particularly concerned--amphibious assaults, say, on islands in the South China Sea or on Taiwan, and anti-submarine warfare, which is of particular importance given that submarines cannot be easily halted with land-based anti-ship missiles and air-launched cruise missiles provided for in their area denial doctrine--submarines are one of the few things that can slip through that net. The surface combatant fleet is likely to continue growing, but I am not sure if it will swell much beyond the ~23 Type 052D ships planned and the 8 Type 055s. We're likely to see the retirement of the classes preceding the Type 052C destroyer and the Type 054 frigate, and they may be offloaded to Bangladesh, Myanmar, or Pakistan--there is substantial precedent here, and it seems that China is interested in expanding the naval capabilities of its partners around India. The submarine fleet is likely to see rapid expansion if the PLAN is satisfied with the Type 095 and Type 096 classes, and we're likely to see more diesel-electric subs built as well. Submarines are generally quite good at fighting submarines and conducting area-denial missions, and the large and capable subsurface forces of Japan, Korea, and the United States means that this has to be an area the PLAN invests more in--and the fact that several Southeast Asian nations are also looking at acquiring submarines makes the issue more pressing.
8. Conclusion
China has in the past decade gone from a third-rate navy to perhaps the greatest threat the US Navy has faced since the Second World War. This has significant geopolitical implications, and has resulted in neighbors scrambling to overhaul their naval forces. The growth of the PLAN means that the US can no longer easily defend Taiwan or the South China Sea, or any of China's littoral waters. This, more than anything else, is what has everyone scrambling in the US talking about "great-power competition" because denying access to the US Navy and working on power projection, an inherently naval thing, is essentially a clear sign that China is looking to directly compete with the United States. Underestimate the PLAN at your own peril. I hope to have more detail and citations in future posts, but unfortunately the PLAN is very secretive [yes, I've said that fifty times already] and this is a pretty big topic to discuss without going into details about all sorts of naval tidbits. Thanks for reading the fourth post in what I hope will be a fairly substantial series, probably around ~12 posts.
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As teased by President Lim, the Legislative Yuan finally put a rubber-stamp on his teased Dash to the Future megaproject. The project is slated to cost $100 Bn, with the goal of launching Taiwan over the $1 Tn GDP mark and well towards the next trillion, to be the largest economic overhaul of the nation since its rise as an East Asian Miracle in the 80's and 90's. The Legislative Yuan has placed a soft completion date for the project around mid 2038.
Greater Taipei
With population in Taiwan climbing, and already having metropolitan spill over between Taipei, New Taipei City, Taoyuan and Keelung, the Ministry of the Interior has included as part of the Dash to the Future Plan a major overhaul of these areas that include full integration into a new smart megacity called Greater Taipei. As part of this integration, the entire city will be called Greater Taipei, but Taipei, New Taipei City, Taoyuan, and Keelung will be the new Super Districts while still having jurisdiction of their already existing districts. With the exception of New Taipei City, most of these new Super Districts are extremely old. While there are newer, overhauled areas, most of the residences are small high-rises that have been there since Japanese colonialism and slowly updated. Electrical wires run from street transformers directly through windows into buildings, the same could be said about the internet. Being the oldest part of modern Taiwan, it is no surprise it is the last place on the island that remains this way, and this will have to be addressed when creating Greater Taipei into a smart megacity. Massive digging projects will begin to streamline the electricity management of Greater Taipei by placing it underground and integrated into each residential and business structure as overhauled in the Housing Boom subproject. The same will be done with the internet as well, to provide fibre optics to every residential building and business. All current sewage piping, and water piping will be completely redone to connect sewage to waste water plants to clean out the waste and filter the cleaned water towards the interior where agriculture is present. To make Greater Taipei into a world class city like Tokyo, or Seoul, it will need to be clean. While trash has never been an issue with Taiwan’s dominant recycling regimen and daily trash routines, streetside food vending is not only violating health regulations, but looks unsanitary. The Ministry of Interior acknowledges that night markets are an important part of Taiwan’s culture and tourism background so they decided to build several specific large mall-like markets with multiple floors. Vendors will rent out space from the Ministry of Interior, and will be given a license to operate within the lease date so long as they pass the health inspections. After the Port of Taipei was damaged by the People’s Liberation Army, the Ministry of National Defense was quick to dispatch CSBC Corporation to repair the damage, however the port is important to the northern economy, and President Lim has been vigilant to include it in the Dash to the Future Megaproject. The container port is going to be expanded to service 20,000 TEUs and up to 52 container berths. To do so, the quay length will be extended 15,500 m with 190 quay cranes and 178,000 m2 of warehouse. The Taiwan Heavy Industries Shipyard at the Port of Taipei will also be subsequently expanded to provide a larger away of civilian and business vessels to feed Taiwan’s monstrous trade regimen. The facility expansions will focus on crude oil tankers, oil and natural gas drilling ships, LPG carriers, offshore oil and gas rig vessels, semi submersible heavylift ship barge, and superlarge freighters. Most of these will service EVERGREEN’s growing need for vessels as Taiwan’s economic influence expands across Africa and the world, to service LNG and petroleum drilling operations in Africa, the Indian Ocean, and the Philippine Sea. The Ministry of Interior plans to move the central government from Taipei to Tainan so Taipei can focus on finance, business, and tourism rather than politics. All current government buildings such as the Legislative Yuan, Presidential Office Building, and others will be turned into the Taiwan Smithsonian, so that citizens can visit the historical monuments for free. Roads in the city will be expanded to feed the growing population and updated to modern standards. The highways will be expanded to ten lanes, while roads will be expanded to eight lanes. The roadways and the highways across Taiwan will be armed with speed and traffic cameras for enforcement of laws by photography and speed signalling. The Ministry of Interior has set their goal of 99% of Taiwan’s roadways to be enforced by camera policing to not only make driving safer, but cleaner. Sound barriers will be added around the freeways, highways to minimize sound. Having long been delayed, the Taoyuan International Airport, the island’s primary airport is going to undergo extensive remodeling as part of the Dash to the Future Megaproject. With the large-scale international recognition of the Republic of Taiwan, many previously off-limits routes are now available to Taiwan, meaning the airport will have to accommodate the increased traffic. Already a busy airport, they have decided to market themselves towards being the hub to South Asia from North Asia, the Pacific, and the Americas. Meaning that flights headed to South Asia will be directed through Taoyuan International Airport. Two more runways are going to be added, each at 12,467 feet made primarily of concrete. The airport has a target of around 100,000,000 passengers served annually, which is 20,000,000 more than the current 80 million. All of the terminals will be upgraded to be on a loop to the highway so that vehicles can pull up, and drop off relatively quickly. The integration is expected to cost $20 Bn over the course of the project.
New Capital City - Tainan
The central government has decided to jump ship from Taipei to the old ancient capital, Tainan. Tainan was the original capital to the island government when ruled by their own people, and seemed like a fit for the Republic of Taiwan. Additionally, the transition to Tainan will bring with it a large amount of investment and repurposing of the city from stagnant industry, to bustling political center. A building for each ministry will have to be constructed, as well as a Legislative Yuan, and a Presidential Building. The site for the construction of the new seat of government has been selected in the Annan District of Tainan, mostly abandoned farmland and right on two scenic rivers, right across from Anping Old Fort. All of the ministry-level headquarters will be built in a similar ancient Taiwan palace-style along a single road called Independence Way that connects to Road 17. Taiwan’s new presidential building will be called the “Green House” denoted by its green-colored roof to be as pictured at the end of Independence Way with each Ministry building at its North and South. (See the Green House, pictured center, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, pictured left). The area around the structures will be maximized for the growth of vegetable and fruit gardens. The paddies around the buildings should also be preserved as much as possible to maintain the healthy natural image. The Environmental Protection Agency has stated the buildings on Independence Way will be entirely powered by renewable energy, like 80% of the country. The construction and overhaul of the area to prepare for the transition of the seat of government should cost $5 Bn.
Housing Boom
The island has already built over most of its non-mountainous areas with houses since the early 1900’s. As noted above, the new focus will be about building new, and higher than ever before. While most of Taiwan’s buildings, especially in Taoyuan, and Taipei are very aged, the new push is to build tall and build new. As part of a great urban renewal project and residential housing project, Continental Engineering Corporation has been provided the contract and subsidies to undertake the massive housing project. All of the structures will be replaced with large multi-use skyscrapers. This will allow the ground floors to be used by stores, and restaurants, while the remaining floors can be used for apartments. Electricity, water, sewage, gas, and the internet will run to these buildings. Each unit will have its own integrated HVAC system, a considerable upgrade for Taiwan. These high-scale cookie-cutter apartment complexes will be dotted across the island, replacing the old. These apartments will be sectioned into units of 10, and that will consist of a neighborhood that has a secure vehicle and foot entrance on two sides. Using the home key to swipe at the security gate they can gain access to the neighborhood and to their building. Guests can check in at the security gate by providing their National Identification Card. A section for visitor parking by the security gate will be allotted, while residence parking will be camera detected by parking pass, and will remain underground in the neighborhood. At the center of each neighborhood, will have a park and common area for community activities. The security entrances will be manned by uniformed, unarmed, volunteers to the National Police Agency as part of their new Community Safety Office. They will not have the authority to arrest anyone or detain anyone, but could assist with situations until law enforcement arrive if serious, solve communal disputes, report suspicious activity, and general community outreach activities like helping a child find their home, get into their building, assisting people carrying groceries etc. Likely the most important piece of the project, and the largest arm of the project, it is expected to cost $50 Bn in upgrades and construction across the island to completely modernize housing and implement the safe neighborhood system.
Connection Penghu
The islands of Penghu, still on Taiwan’s continental shelf, are in shallow waters, easily accessible, and within 10 miles of Chiayi County on the island of Taiwan. A series of bridged highways have been proposed in a loop to link Penghu County and its respective islands to each other which will be linked by a long over-water bridge to the coastal Highway 61. As part of the loop there will be two connections across to Penghu, the first will connect the Hwy 61 to Penghu’s 202 at the Huxi Township. The other connection will connect Dongjiyu Township to the 61 by Jiangjun District. This plan will effectively connect all of the islands of Penghu directly to each other and to Taiwan proper. The connection will be called the Penghu Causeway, and will cost $20 Bn.
Gambling Laws and Tourism
As Taiwan gains a taste for luxury life and culture, the Legislative Yuan decided to generally legalize gambling across the Republic of Taiwan. Previously, gambling was only legal in designated areas, however no areas were ever designated. After the passage of this law, gambling and e-gambling will now be legal in Taiwan. Specifically, the Legislative Yuan has targeted Yilan County’s coast for specific gambling and resort build up on the Eastern Coast. White sands will be poured over Yilan’s coast and allow the targeted foreign resort and casino investment into the area. The Ministry of Interior will be conducting a $5 Bn construction and infrastructure build up of the coast to cater to construction of prospective resorts and casinos. This will include the clearing of the new coast, extending of power lines and water lines, and carving out areas for resorts and casinos, while preparing the white sand beach. Taiwan will now allow the hosting of e-gambling services, including Simplified Chinese to suck money out of China’s rampant addiction to online gambling that the government can’t seem to crank down on. Currently, the Philippines manages the monopoly for e-gambling in South East Asia, but as an easy market to get into and a sector dominance of Chinese-language, the barriers to entry for Taiwan are extremely low. With the technological prowess of Taiwan, the Legislative Yuan expects it will not be long until most e-gambling could be regulated through Taiwan’s government, and all the digital transactions and gambling fees raking in more revenue from overseas players to Taiwan. The Legislative Yuan hopes that this broad legalization will drive further business, and will make Taiwan one of the first in South East Asia to do so.
See list of prior RecatsTMhere. Please visit the Hong Kong Protest Live Feed for up-to-the-moment news sourced from Hong Kong. [NEW as of 2/21] Recommended English translation of article entitled, “K Kwong develops 100% locally produced masks with changeable filter as a challenge to N95” (courtesy u/Vectorial1024).
* Razven thread re 9000 HKers queuing for masks, while the HK Commercial & Industry Association donated 150,000 masks to Wuhan via China’s Red Cross. * Richard Pyne thread re poll results on what HKers want. * HK Free Press article on how mainland China increased bus services to the port entries that Carrie Lam left open. * Cezanne video of woman taken by police, kidnap-style. * Real Time News posts first and second re woman from Wuhan.
New Laws, Legal Challenges, and Elections
* (Arrests and Trials) Part-time mall security guard arrested for “sending false messages with mobile phone” when he texted that some staff had fevers and called in sick (see RTHK article). Tuen Mun locals getting arrested for having gloves, umbrellas, and masks (see Bohemian post, Panda post). * (IPCC) Lisa Lau Man-man, IPCC member, urges IPCC to release report.
* (Healthcare Workers Strike—Day 1) First day of a full strike. The striking workers personally sign in to log how many have walked out on strike. Thousands attend and queue to hand deliver their letters to the Hospital Authority. Representatives of other unions attend in support. Over 7,000 (almost 10%) Hospital Authority workers participated in the strike. HAEA union leaders bow and apologize to affected patients. HAEA goes to visit Carrie Lam. See Kong Tsung-gan thread; Chris Lau thread; Damon Pang thread; RTHK article; second RTHK article. * (Lunch With You—Landmark Mall, Central) Crowd gathers in support of the healthcare workers on strike. See Ryan Ho Kilpatrick thread. * (Tuen Mun Temp Check) See Telegram posts here, here. * (District Council) Southern District passed measure to create permanent Lennon Wall. * (Kowloon Bay Health Centre) Locals object to location of a dedicated coronavirus clinic nearby. See Razven thread; * (General Protests) Protests were held in various locations across the city to protest government’s failure to close the borders and its quarantine decisions: Tin Shui Wai (see Panda thread; Daniel Suen post; “I’m from Wuhan!”, “Ten years ago!”; Cezanne thread); Tseung Kwan O (see Panda thread; Real Time News post); Tai Po (see Real Time News post); Mong Kok (Passion Times posts here, here); Lai Chi Kok (toilet bomb; Xinqi Su post).
International and Mainland Reactions / Adjacent Sectors
* (US) Congress nominates HK pro-Democracy movement for Nobel Peace Prize. * (Mainland China) Re Wuhan/Hubei:Pop-up hospital begins admitting patients. Red Cross punished. Re information blackout:China-controlled countries react quietly to coronavirus. * (Macau) All casinos shut down for 2 weeks (see Xinqi Su thread). Will continue to buy masks from other countries (Carrie Lam asking CCP for masks). * (Taiwan) Health Minister corrects WHO’s reporting of 13 cases; Taiwan has only 10 confirmed cases. * (International Border Closings) North Korea; Thailand. * (United Nations) A group hacked the UN website. * (Australia) Mainland Chinese student lies about being from HK to Australia customs, then brags online. See Daily Mail article.
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